Race of the Day: 2023 Preakness Stakes Analysis

It’s not the Preakness we all want, featuring almost no returning Derby runners and few compelling new faces, but the Triple Crown trail continues at Pimlico nonetheless. Two weeks ago, the number of horses eligible to win the Triple Crown dropped to one. That one will be tested today.

While I’m hoping that the Belmont Stakes comes up deeper than this event, there’s still plenty to look at in this field as Mage takes his next step on the most challenging path in racing. Let’s take a look:

Pimlico, Race 13

Preakness Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 3/16 Miles on the Dirt

Post Time: 7:01 p.m. ET

1- National Treasure

The breakthrough hasn’t come yet, but this colt has a habit of making bettors believe that it’s right around the corner. Though he hasn’t won a race since his debut maiden breaker, Baffert’s only hope in this race has never finished worse than fourth in four straight graded stakes races. His speed figures put him on par with the very best in this field, and with the scratch of First Mission, he figures as the likeliest spoiler in Mage’s Triple Crown pursuit. This could be his start.

2- Chase the Chaos

Even after this gelding rattled off back-to-back wins earlier this year, he still would not have figured in a race of this caliber. He has since lost two races in convincing fashion and will have to improve significantly to have any chance.

3- Mage

Hello there. As the Derby winner, this colt doesn’t really need much justification for me to label him a contender. As he pursues the Triple Crown, however, I will say that he is blessed to be facing a particularly weak field in his second leg. With a 105 BSF in his last start against a vastly superior field, he would not be a surprise here. Someone else needs to take a step forward to beat him.

4- Coffeewithchris

With just two cheap stakes wins at Laurel in his last 12 races, thus Maryland-bred doesn’t figure as a serious contender here. The odds aren’t in his favor, but he does have a serious chance of getting the early lead and will at least make a case on the backstretch.

5- Red Route One

He’s in with a chance here because of his ability to exceed expectations, as he did when he finished a length behind Angel of Empire in the G2 Rebel. He also enters with a nice win from off the pace in an ungraded stakes at Oaklawn. The real problem is that this race might not have much early speed, which could be an issue for a colt that has shown very little out of the gate in his career.

6- Perform

This colt drew into the Preakness by winning the Federico Tesio, a local qualifier, at 10-1 odds. He actually showed a lot of heart to win that one, overcoming a very troubled stretch run and slow opening fractions to beat a handful of low-level Triple Crown nominees. He could have won that one by a lot more with a clean trip, which does indicate that he can improve on the 85 BSF he earned. But he still has his work cut out for him against this field and the pace may not favor his closing style.

7- Blazing Sevens

Chad Brown is famous for skipping the Derby and preparing his three-year-olds for the Preakness, and this colt seems to be his hopeful this year. His performance in the G2 Fountain of Youth should be disregarded, as he clearly needed a start off the layoff and returned to form in the G1 Blue Grass. He needed more than a return to form, however, to truly contend in that race, as he finished a distant third behind Tapit Trice and Verifying, who disappointed next time out in the Derby. He has to show me something before I can trust him.

8- First Mission (SCR)

Very unfortunate scratch.

Order: 3 1 5 4

I can’t find anything. Mage’s last start cannot be matched by any other runner in this field, even with moderate improvement. The only factor to consider is fatigue coming back after two weeks, but I don’t consider anyone strong enough to capitalize. National Treasure could be a tough one to run down in the stretch, but I would’ve liked to see a stronger showing in the Santa Anita Derby to support him as a win candidate here. Red Route One could get involved after some nice performances earlier this year, but I don’t know if the race dynamics will favor him.

One thought on “Race of the Day: 2023 Preakness Stakes Analysis”

  1. As always great picks would love to hear from the SUPER MODEL. Nice job PATRICK.

Comments are closed.