In its seventh year as the premier horse racing event… in January, the Pegasus World Cup hasn’t exactly captured the imagination of horsemen, nor has it appealed much to fans. The 1 ⅛-mile race on the dirt at Gulfstream Park doesn’t typically attract international stars as the race’s title would suggest and a purse decrease in 2020 hasn’t helped matters.
But though the fields for the invitational have suffered in terms of quality in recent years, they have also remained large, as 12 runners typically line up regardless of the circumstances. After a 2022 season in which nearly every American star of the sport retired, this year’s Pegasus field lacks a killer and could therefore provide value.
At one point in time, my analysis of this Gulfstream card was going to include all 13 races, and at another point, I was simply going to analyze the Pegasus events. But a weekend trip to Houston (with frequent guest handicapper Lucas Ludgate) unfortunately derailed those publishing plans, as I had to shift my focus to the runners competing at Sam Houston Race Park this Saturday.
While I try to take down Steve Asmussen with a bunch of Texan locals I’ve never heard of, I sincerely hope handicappers avoid the typical hazards of betting cards at Gulfstream. They can be unforgiving, especially on days like this. When we meet again for the last race of the day, I expect both of us to still have a little money left in our pockets.
Gulfstream, Race 13
Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes (G1) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 5:40 p.m. ET
1- Proxy
This horse had some pep in his step late in the 2022 season, but a setback over the summer interrupted what could have been a promising year. He won the G1 Clark at this distance with a 101 BSF back in November, which is encouraging to an extent. Most years, a runner of this caliber wouldn’t have a chance in the Pegasus World Cup, but this 2023 crop is weak and vulnerable. He’s fired fresh off layoffs before.
2- Simplification
I’m going to unpack the G3 Harlan’s Holiday in more detail later on, but for now, just accept that the speed figures from that race are a little suspect. I think Simplification is capable of running a 103, but I don’t think he did it as the third-place finisher of a G3 stakes race. This colt hasn’t won since March and is an obvious long shot as a result, though he does seem comfortable at Gulfstream.
3- Ridin With Biden
He’s done a lot of winning at Parx in recent months, and if you’re going to prepare for the Pegasus World Cup in Pennsylvania, winning is necessary. The problem is that his speed figures in those victories aren’t necessarily jumping off the page, though his career-best 100 did come at this distance in an ungraded stakes at Laurel. A solid pick for older Catholic Democrats out there, or maybe those who can’t find a better option.
4- White Abarrio
He’s finally home. After four victories at Gulfstream Park and a tumultuous slate of performances literally anywhere else, this colt is finally returning to Florida at a fairly comfortable distance. In fact, his last victory in April came in the G1 Florida Derby at 1 ⅛ miles. He has been moving in the right direction lately as well despite losing consistently. Maybe all the pieces come together here.
5- Defunded
California runners can be fickle in their first races outside the state, giving this one something to prove despite solid performances last autumn. He has competed well against other California runners for some time now, but the speed figures suggest that the competition may not be so stiff over there. He has upside as a shipping Baffert trainee but still needs to show more. Expect him to be near the pace.
6- Art Collector
The old man must be nearing the end of the line here, but he’s tough to rule out entirely. Seven of his 10 lifetime wins have come at this distance, and before a poor start in the G2 Lukas Classic, he seemed to be in form picking up checks at lower levels. I don’t think he’s capable of running back to his 2021 form, but he might not have to do so in order to compete with this field.
7- Skippylongstocking
Alright, let’s talk about that G3 Harlan’s Holiday. Who believes that Skippy actually ran a 106 that day? Better yet, who believes he’ll be able to repeat it here? Though I’m a little skeptical on both fronts, it’s undeniable that he looked impressive in victory last time out, kicking clear in the stretch against credible runners, some of which he will face again in the Pegasus. The class hike will be formidable though, and his odds might not offer much value.
8- Get Her Number
He’s in form, but the distance is a glaring issue. Talking about his gutsy performance in the G1 Cigar Mile feels cheapened somewhat by the fact that he’s almost completely unproven at 1 ⅛ miles. He finished fourth in the 2021 Arkansas Derby at this distance before Peter Miller switched him to turf and then dirt sprints. Stretching him out now may be just as appropriate as those other two transitions, but it also seems like Miller hasn’t always known what to do with him.
9- Last Samurai
Frankie Dettori aboard a folksy Kentucky runner is a spectacle in itself, though the interest may begin and end there. Before a setback last spring, it seemed like this horse was on his way, but he hasn’t been able to build on that success in two stints since. It would’ve been nice to see him win the ungraded Tinsel Stakes at Oaklawn last time before he tried the Pegasus.
10- Cyberknife
He has to be the pick. Following an excellent win in the G1 Haskell, this colt met his match in the G1 Travers against champion 3YO Epicenter, but still improved to earn a 105 BSF. A disappointing start in the G1 Pennsylvania Derby was merely a blip, as he returned in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and nearly knocked off Cody’s Wish, an extremely talented miler. Back at a longer, more comfortable distance, he appears to be in razor sharp condition in the mornings and should take care of business.
11- Stilleto Boy
This gelding’s all over the place. A third-place finish and 104 BSF in last year’s Pegasus was a highlight, as was a 108 BSF in the G2 Californian. But besides those two performances, he’s been dreadful by the standards at this level. He didn’t look very sharp going into last year’s running of this race either, however, so it’s difficult to rule him out of the mix entirely.
12- O’Connor (Chi)
This hype horse from Chile hasn’t quite lived up to expectations in two starts at Gulfstream, as he dominated an optional claiming event but disappointed as the favorite in the G3 Harlan’s Holiday. The Racing Form seemed to conclude that other runners in that race improved to defeat him, but it’s just as easy to interpret it as regression on his part. Saffie Joseph seems to be preparing him well and has placed him confidently in this race, which is encouraging. The far outside post might hurt him either way.
Order: 10 7 4 1
Figuring out the exact order of this race is a challenge, but the winner feels fairly obvious. Cyberknife simply appears to be a step above the others in this field in terms of both speed and class. He has sustained a level of form none of the other runners have, and despite a poor post, it’s his race to lose. Skippylongstocking is the hot horse in the race, as he’s coming off a very sharp performance in the G3 Harlan’s Holiday. I don’t need to buy the speed figure to appreciate the win, which came in controlling fashion on this dirt course.
All the angles seem to point toward improvement from White Abarrio, who will have every chance to regain some of his former glory after four straight wins at Gulfstream earlier in his career. Proxy fills out my top four on paper as a solid runner, but taking a price underneath may be more prudent. Finding that big price, however, is another matter entirely.