On a typical racing calendar, the G3 Ohio Derby at Thistledown would probably fly past my radar. The race usually consists of a few washed out Triple Crown contenders and an obvious favorite who wins going away. But this year is special, mostly because there’s a horse I’ve been keeping a very keen eye on for several months.
In my Belmont Stakes analysis, I said that I believed the G3 Peter Man to be a stronger race than the Preakness this year. It seems like Arcangelo confirmed that when he won the third leg of the Triple Crown handily, several weeks after beating Bishops Bay in a tight photo finish.
Both horses ran perfectly in the Peter Pan — neither was aided by a favorable trip or track factors. They ran their best races, nearly nine lengths ahead of the rest of the field, and I was more than prepared after that race to say that both were among the best three-year-olds in the country. Bishops Bay fought for the lead throughout the race and re-rallied after getting passed by Arcangelo in the stretch. It took an even gutsier re-rally from Arcangelo to beat him.
This is probably the earliest I’ve ever spoiled my top pick in a race, though I do provide full analysis and a few minor concerns later on. If readers would like to stop now, however, they can do so knowing that I will be betting confidently on Bishops Bay in the Ohio Derby. I expect thoughtful messages of congratulations or condolences by 7:00 p.m. this evening.
Thistledown, Race 12
Ohio Derby (G3) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 6:20 p.m. ET
1- Henry Q
I can’t really explain his performance in the Mine That Bird Derby, when he crushed a weaker field with an eye-popping 93 BSF. It may have simply been the speed-favoring track giving him a few extra lengths, but in any case, he hasn’t come close to replicating the race in two starts since. A distant third-place finish behind fellow runner Bishops Bay in the G3 Peter Pan keeps him out of the win picture, though it is interesting that Kendrick Carmouche is shipping into Ohio for a single mount.
2- Timesatappin
Alright. So he’s a deep closer who’s run into some slow fractions on speed-favoring tracks lately. If that angle is enough for you, then go nuts. But he’s 0-for-3 in Thistledown allowance races and his jockey is similarly winless at the track.
3- Bishops Bay
I’m in. His Peter Pan stretch duel with Arcangelo, next-out winner of the Belmont Stakes, was something special to watch live and demonstrated that both horses possessed grit as well as profound potential. Arcangelo has since cashed in, and I believe that it’s this colt’s turn in a much softer spot. Cheap speed could be a problem, and substantial rains would give the favorite to his outside a better chance, but he’s the pick.
4- Two Phil’s
There are two ways to look at his performance in the Kentucky Derby. The first is that he overcame an inside post position with tactical speed and finished well for a big check in the preeminent event for his age group. The other is that he should have won the race with the rail trip he received, and a number of scratches weakened this year’s Derby field to such an extent that two newcomers won the next two legs of the Triple Crown. I’ll side with the latter argument because he’s 8-5 on the morning line and I have a strong alternative.
5- Agnello’s Dream
Keep dreaming.
6- Last Cookie
I’d like to point out that all three local runners in this race are winless at their local track. Now they’re facing the runner-up in the Kentucky Derby.
7- Lord Miles
Because he was scratched from the Kentucky Derby, I’ve had an extra month and a half to mull over his Wood Memorial victory. It still doesn’t make sense, but based on the way he won it, I can believe that it’s indicative of his actual ability. The problem is that he needs to improve off that performance to have a winning chance here. We know that he was a healthy scratch in the Derby, so it’s not out of the question for him to take a step forward.
8- Hayes Strike
He’s the outsider of the group coming off an electric come-from-behind win in the Texas Derby at Lone Star last time out. The 90 BSF he earned isn’t quite enough to put him in contention here and he was no match in the G1 Blue Grass two back, but he could make some noise with the right pace scenario.
Order: 3 4 7 1
Bishops Bay legitimately feels like the best horse in this race. That G3 Peter Pan could very well prove to be an unofficial Triple Crown race looking back on this year, as Arcangelo proved that it was undoubtedly stronger than the Preakness at the very least. The fact that Bishops Bay finished so well despite constant pressure on the front end makes him very dangerous in all starts for the foreseeable future. Two Phil’s is a logical favorite as the runner-up in the Kentucky Derby, and in most years, a race of this caliber would be a walkover for him. But I really do think he’s met his match here, and isn’t his placement in this race an issue anyway? Call it a crisis of confidence, but trainer Larry Rivelli’s decision to skip both Triple Crown events and other big races to come here seems like an odd step. Lord Miles and Henry Q both need to improve to have any chance to win, and while I believe the former makes the better case, they’re both necessary additions in deeper exotic bets.