I woke up this morning and the sky was falling. Several of my guest handicappers had already heard the news and were frantically texting me. It’s taken a few hours, but I believe I’m finally ready to complete my Derby analysis once and for all.
Kentucky Derby favorite Forte’s withdrawal from the race this morning sent shockwaves throughout the racing community as everyone frantically tries to evaluate the race without him in it. It feels more wide open than ever and I’ve had to slowly come to a new understanding.
Because I’ve had to rewrite a lot of material on the fly, my picks will have to revert to some of my old-fashioned analysis. I’m giving everyone a top four and a long shot and praying that they don’t scratch between now and post time. There don’t seem to be any guarantees at this point, but when have there ever been?
Churchill Downs, Race 12
Kentucky Derby (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ¼ Miles on the Dirt
17- Derma Sotogake (Jpn)
Earlier this week, I was very disappointed that this colt drew the 17th post, known as the post position of death, which has never produced a Derby winner. But with three scratches to his inside, things suddenly feel very real again and I’m all over him. His performance in the UAE Derby was extremely impressive and he has demonstrated the ability to win with a number of different running styles. Japanese horses aboard have been incredible in recent years, and with a little luck, I think this is the year they take the roses.
14- Angel of Empire
His victory in the G1 Arkansas Derby was very important, as he was little more than a deep closer with a puncher’s chance before then. But that performance, in which he earned a 94 BSF, demonstrated a more professional closing running style that has suited horses well in the Derby historically. I was a little concerned about the competition he faced in that event, but he won in convincing fashion and should be well-prepared for a similarly solid performance here.
7- Reincarnate
I guess everyone felt pretty clever with this one, because 50-1 on the morning line was a ridiculous price. He’s come down on the tote board a lot because of the scratches, but also because he deserves some more attention. His win in the G3 Sham earlier this year showed a lot of heart and the 95 BSF was encouraging. His next two starts at Oaklawn under Tim Yakteen were dull, but one was highly excusable because of a bad trip on a sloppy track. He had to travel wide on the front end in the other. John Velasquez is staying to ride for the outsider, indicating that there’s still a plan in place to upset this field.
5- Tapit Trice
He’s a very solid runner and figures as the Derby favorite by post time now that Forte is out. Four wins on four different tracks nearly ensures that he’ll handle Churchill Downs well. My problem is that in his five career starts, he’s only ever faced one true challenger, and it took everything he had to take down Verifying in the G1 Blue Grass. There might be some heavy hitters in this field that will test him in a new way.
21- Cyclone Mischief
Now that Reincarnate is 13-1 instead of 50-1, I feel the need to include another long shot. This one is a way bigger question mark but I feel like he has a chance to get into the mix. Earlier this season on the Florida circuit, he seemed like the real deal when he earned a 90 BSF in a dominant allowance win. Then he followed that up with a disastrous start in the G3 Holy Bull and two uninspiring efforts in the G2 Fountain of Youth and G1 Florida Derby. The catch to those performances, however, is that he was forced to travel extremely wide in compromising positions while many of his foes beat him with better trips. The post might be an issue again here, but if the chaos bends his way, I think he has the heart to fight in the stretch. With the favorite Forte out of the race, Irad Ortiz picks up the mount on this colt.
Order: 17 14 7 5 21
There are at least eight horses who could feasibly win this race at this point, but I feel very comfortable with my top pair. Derma Sotogake, in particular, stands out as a horse that could really impress in his stateside debut. Japan is undoubtedly going to win a Kentucky Derby in the next few years and I’m starting to think the time is now. Angel of Empire is another excellent option and should be one of two favorites entering this race. I really appreciate the step forward he took when winning the G1 Arkansas Derby. The speed figure was light but it was so visually impressive that I expect him to be competitive again here.
Reincarnate was my long shot pick but he was also everyone else’s as it turns out, validating my opinion to an extent. As Bob Baffert’s only pseudo-representative in the field, he’s very tough to ignore. Tapit Trice is a very legitimate contender that I’m fading at my own peril. I fully understand the risks but would’ve liked to see a sharper final prep before the Derby. Cyclone Mischief is a high-yield runner that I believe can make some noise, along with many others who pose real risks to my top horses.