At the end of every Triple Crown season, the Belmont Stakes ushers in a new era for three-year-olds as they begin the transition to careers as older horses. This happens to be a year in which the spotlight isn’t quite as bright, but the race remains the preeminent event of a spectacular weekend of racing.
Between the distance, field quality and venue, the Belmont Stakes may possibly be my favorite race each year. That may or may not be because I’ve made a lot of money on the event in past years, but the appeal of a special day for my home track undoubtedly plays a part as well.
This year’s Belmont will not decide a Triple Crown, as Bob Baffert and National Treasure successfully vanquished Kentucky Derby winner Mage in the Preakness three weeks ago. The field is still very strong, however, and could have ramifications on the entire racing season in an instant. Let’s take a look at the field.
Belmont, Race 12
Belmont Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ½ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 7:02 p.m. ET
1- Tapit Shoes
This colt ran gamely despite a wide trip in an ungraded stakes at Oaklawn last time out, coming up just short to fellow runner Red Route One while defeating reputable runner Victory Formation. Jose Ortiz takes the mount for Brad Cox, but that’s where the praise ends. He has to improve to have a chance here.
2- Tapit Trice
People have gone to painstaking lengths to explain away his performance in the Kentucky Derby, but the fact of the matter is that he didn’t show up. Even if people want to blame the trip from the back of the pack, then fellow runner Angel of Empire should deserve even more credit for finishing third (and nearly eight lengths ahead of Tapit Trice) with the exact same trip. The only angle justifying this colt’s odds is his sireline, as Tapit’s foals have demonstrated exceptional aptitude in the Belmont in past years. Based on his personal record, however, he only has one truly impressive performance, when he defeated Verifying (16th in the Derby next out) in a photo in the G1 Blue Grass. If he beats me, he beats me.
3- Arcangelo
He looked a lot like his dad last time out. The way that this ridgling beat Bishops Bay in the G3 Peter Pan deserves a second look. First, it’s important to understand that Bishops Bay is probably going to end up being one of the top three-year-olds in this crop, and Arcangelo beat him off a maiden win. Second, though Bishops Bay got a bad trip dueling on the outside, Arcangelo was the only one that even attempted to chase him down, and even re-rallied after Bishops Bay re-rallied. The third-place finisher was 8 ¾ lengths behind the top pair at the wire. The race they ran was arguably better than the G1 Preakness this year and becomes an even stronger prep considering it was over the Belmont track. A bounce or plateau is possible and the distance may be too much, but don’t count him out at a price.
4- National Treasure
In my Preakness analysis, I said that this colt would have to take a step forward to beat Mage. I was wrong, as he got picture-perfect trip on the front end while Mage regressed significantly. This year’s Preakness field was exceptionally weak, as most Derby runners skipped the event and were replaced by obscure outsiders. This Bob Baffert trainee capitalized on the lack of pace and quality in the race, and one of those factors could be in play here as well. He’ll probably be out there by himself again this time too, but this field is much stronger and the distance has to be a question, especially on three weeks’ rest. He would be an anticlimactic winner.
5- Il Miracolo
“If we played ’em ten times, they might win nine.” It’s unlikely that this horse knows how to play hockey though. Or triumph over communism.
6- Forte
Well, he’s rested. After withdrawing from the Kentucky Derby on the morning of the race, the juvenile champ was unable to participate in the Preakness because he was placed on the 14-day vet’s list with lameness. A sharp workout at Belmont on June 3 should dispel any concerns about his condition, so it really comes down to his ability after two months on the shelf. He seems like the type that can run all day based on his previous performances, all of which featured a prolonged and determined bid for the lead. He’s impossible to ignore but difficult to trust, an unfortunate combo for the likely favorite.
7- Hit Show
This colt put up a strong fight at long odds in the Kentucky before fading to fifth. This puts him in an odd position as a capable runner who has already proven to be a step slower than the very best in his crop, including fellow runner and stablemate Angel of Empire, who blew past him in the stretch to take third. Based on his staying power at 1 ¼ miles, there’s reason to believe that he could stick around in the Belmont as well, and his odds will likely be inflated as people write him off as a proven commodity.
8- Angel of Empire
Though he was never in contention to win the Kentucky Derby after starting way back in the pack, Brad Cox’s prized colt this year still made an excellent showing to charge home for third with a 104 BSF. Based on what that race might have taken out of him, skipping the Preakness was definitely the best decision and sets him up well to succeed here. He’ll likely handle the distance well enough, and in terms of progression, he’s the most logical choice to win without too many question marks. Adding blinkers may seem strange after his last start, but Brad Cox claims that he trains with them all the time and jockey Flavien Prat requested them after the Derby. He’s the cleanest horse on paper by far.
9- Red Route One
This colt’s consistency has been key in recent months and guided him to a solid fourth-place finish in the Preakness last time out. That being said, he didn’t show much more in that race than he has in previous starts, all of which aren’t quite good enough to make him a contender against this field. His worst performance this year was easily the G1 Arkansas Derby, when he finished 5 ½ lengths behind fellow runner Angel of Empire. Maybe an exotic play.
Order: 8 6 3 2
This is the trickiest Belmont Stakes field in several years, but Angel of Empire makes the most sense. His performance in the Kentucky Derby was easily one of the best that day and he’s managed to rest in preparation for this race. He nearly feels too safe, to the point that I’m unsure, but he’s where I keep landing. Forte obviously deserves consideration as the former Kentucky Derby favorite, and the rest he inadvertently received may have been exactly what he needed. He has every chance to win. Arcangelo is the underrated talent in this field coming off an extremely impressive performance in the G3 Peter Pan. He’s still unproven around two turns but I can easily see him competing with my top pair. Tapit Trice isn’t a win candidate in my mind but cannot be left out of exotic bets either based on his previous performances.