This year’s Cigar Mile at Aqueduct Racetrack will likely be the last big race on the New York racing calendar in 2022, as the track eventually makes way for claiming races and subpar allowances for a time.
A slate of Derby preps early next year should bring back some exciting competition as they always do, but until then, bettors with a preference for class may find themselves starved for a while in the Northeast. Let’s take advantage of the time we have.
This year’s Cigar Mile didn’t draw many runners, as the scratch of O Besos brings the field down to six. But it’s a solid sextet with a few key storylines between them, as some runners look to finish their three-year-old seasons strong against some salty older horses.
Before I begin, I’d also like to give George McKnight, a frequent contributor to guest works on Paddy’s Picks, a brief shoutout. George’s analysis in recent months has been of a caliber and level of detail that frankly exceeds that of almost any other handicapper in the site’s history. Due to his recent success and unparalleled effort, I’ve chosen to include his analysis at the end of this pre-race article, as I believe it could genuinely help readers evaluating the race. He will also appear with the rest of my guests in my post-race guest analysis, which should come out next week. Good work, kid.
Aqueduct, Race 9
Cigar Mile Handicap (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 Mile on the Dirt
Post Time: 3:43 p.m. EST
1- Double Crown
I want to toss this longshot, but his last performance is also tough to dismiss. Facing Baby Yoda and lesser challengers in the G2 Kelso, he improved dramatically to deliver a career-best performance and win at 42-1 odds. There weren’t any tricks to it either — he made a solid move around the turn and ran down the favorite while blowing away the rest of the field. Two schools of thoughts stem from there. On one hand, long shots often bounce after sudden emergencies from obscurity. On the other hand, he may just be in form, though another small step up may still be necessary against this field.
2- Zandon
This colt has been one to watch ever since his pretty win in the G1 Blue Grass, and he hasn’t finished worse than third since despite a very demanding three-year-old stakes schedule. He hasn’t won either though, partially a result of facing sharp fields, but he’s appeared flat at times too and the cutback to a mile might not be the solution. I’ve seen better favorites.
3- White Abarrio
At Gulfstream Park in Florida, this colt won four of four starts. He remains winless in five races elsewhere, raising serious doubts about his ability to compete outside of his home base. He’s tried a number of running styles and simply hasn’t kept up with the best runners in his crop. Last time out in the G1 Pennsylvania Derby, he was 29-1 and Zandon was 7-2.
4- Get Her Number
He’s always been on the periphery of the highest levels of racing, barely missing a spot in the Kentucky Derby and picking up minor checks ever since. His recent victory in an optional claiming event was sharp, but it’s hard to stack him up against some of the others in this field on that performance alone.
5- O Besos (SCRATCHED)
O Besos was scratched due to an outbreak of equine herpes at Churchill Downs. A guest article will be published for this race next week, so I’ll allow my lovely contributors to make their own jokes while I gracefully and swiftly move on.
6- Outlier
Norm Cash’s second runner doesn’t have the same qualifications as his stablemate, as Double Crown remains a longshot but at least has the G2 stakes win last time out. It’s hard to think about this horse as a rabbit, as that’s not something a small-time trainer is often willing to do. But the closer Double Crown wouldn’t suffer from a little more pace up front, making it a vague possibility. In any case, this runner has a minimal chance.
7- Mind Control
It’s almost time to say goodbye. This sprinter has been a thorn in many bettors’ sides for years, as he’s played the role of spoiler in countless big races. This year, his performance in the Salvatore Mile against Hot Rod Charlie was simply electrifying and shows that he still might have a bullet left in the chamber for his farewell race. The G2 Charles Town Classic was too long for him and he bounced back well with a solid showing in the Polynesian next time out. With Zandon taking a lot of money on the morning line, I wouldn’t be stunned if he takes some more money as a highly qualified second choice.
Order: 7 2 4 3
Mind Control and Zandon appear to make a formidable top duo, and even without the morning line odds, I would argue that the former is a more solid option to take on top. The latter, a three-year-old with plenty of races ahead of him, has a few hurdles he’ll have to clear to defeat his older foe, who has been tested in these conditions many times. Get Her Number and White Abarrio are both respectable runners but they haven’t shown enough to demonstrate that they can compete with the top pair on their best day.
Georgie’s Corner
George’s Pick 7- Mind Control
Hello again, peeps. You last heard me on the inaugural Paddy’s Picks Podcast, in which I discussed the Breeders’ Cup Turf race. Once again my prediction was right, as Rebel’s Romance completed the 1 1/2 miles in a course-record 2:26.35. I’m not usually cocky about anything else in life, but my overall winning percentage in handicapping should allow me to show some pride. The point I’m trying to make here is that I’m rarely ever wrong on Paddy’s Picks; so if you feel like taking handicapping advice from any of the goms Patrick hangs out with, pick this one.
Anyway, we’re looking at the 2022 Cigar Mile at Aqueduct. What a glorious place. I hope I get to go there with Patrick (and by extension the Moquin family) now that Belmont has been conquered by the Islanders. But I digress. It’s a $750,000 handicap for 3-year-olds and upward. We’re only looking at a six-pony race now that O Besos has been scratched, so that narrows down our focus slightly. Following that, there are four horses that really caught my eye for various reasons: Zandon, White Abarrio, Get Her Number, and Mind Control.
I really like Zandon, but there’s a couple things about the three-year-old that make me question how he managed to get straight 1-1 odds ahead of Saturday’s race. Let’s start off with the good: Zandon is already very seasoned in big-time races. He won the G1 Blue Grass Stakes last spring at Keeneland and then finished third in the Kentucky Derby. He also finished second by a hair to eventual Belmont Stakes winner Mo Donegal at the Remsen Stakes last year. Clearly, the experience is there. Additionally, Zandon’s stalking ability is unparalleled, as he leaves the gate well, sitting slightly off the front runners to begin with, then slowly gains ground in the final quarter. He’s versatile enough to adjust to the way the race unfolds in front of him, which he especially needs to do on Saturday given the running styles of his competitors. The not so good: Zandon hasn’t gotten a big win since the Blue Grass Stakes. While he’s competed well when the lights are at their brightest, he’s lacked the oomph to push him through the crowd and take victory for himself. As some of you may know already, I’m also not fond of Chad Brown as a trainer, but he’s already won two Cigar Miles to date. Zandon certainly has experience and technical prowess, but I can see this race becoming yet another near miss for him.
I’ve reported on White Abarrio before, which is why I wanted to touch on him briefly. I looked at him as a possible contender for the Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park in July, but I tossed him due to his poor performance at the Derby. Turns out White Abarrio threw in an even bigger stinker than he did at Churchill Downs. Also, it’s important to note that he’s been untouchable at Gulfstream Park in Florida, but hasn’t won at any other track. His 9-2 odds are tempting, but I’d steer clear of him here.
Get Her Number is an interesting pick. He’s got a few more races under his belt than Zandon or White Abarrio, which is usually more appealing in my book. He’s also been on fire of late, most recently winning a race at Del Mar over big names like Forbidden Kingdom, Howbeit, and Ginobili. Get Her Number’s performance at that race showed the handicapping world that he is not to be trifled with. His running style should bode well against his competitors here, as he can either stalk the inside or keep the frontrunner’s pace for the entire mile. Jockey Luis Saez has won this race twice in the last three years, with Maximum Security in 2019 and with Americanrevolution last year. However, Get Her Number has grown accustomed to 6 or 7 furlong races, and his performance in mile-or-longer races has been inconsistent in the past. Saez will have to drive him hard. But my instincts are telling me to go Get Her Number. Definitely shorter odds than a girl actually giving me her number in real life.
Before I talk about Mind Control, google ‘MK-Ultra.’ Crazy, right?
Anyway, Mind Control is a grizzled veteran of the New York circuit, posting solid performances at Belmont, Saratoga, and Aqueduct ever since he won the G1 Hopeful Stakes in Saratoga as a juvenile. He’s got four career wins at Aqueduct, and has garnered seven graded stakes victories in total, reaching that pinnacle every year since 2018 while boasting a record of 28-11-3-6. He’s been money his entire career, and he’s been trained by the great Todd Pletcher since last summer. After Pletcher acquired him, he’s won the G2 John A. Nerud at Belmont over Firenze Fire and the Salvator Mile at Monmouth over Hot Rod Charlie. Simply put, Mind Control has ran with the best and beaten them, and he’s experienced with all NYRA tracks, especially Aqueduct. The Cigar Mile is also his swan song; who doesn’t like to see a veteran go out on top? Tom Brady should watch more horse racing.
To cap it off, I’m going with Mind Control. Zandon needs more than a mile to account for his stalking and closing style, while Get Her Number’s tendency to lead the pack might be good for a six or seven furlong race but not for the Cigar Mile. This Saturday’s race is also Mind Control’s swan song; who doesn’t like to see a veteran go out on top? Tom Brady should watch more horse racing.
A Merry Christmas to you all, and go Jets. All hail Mike White.
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