I wonder how much money Medina Spirit has swindled out of people over the years with his little doping scheme. I bet he thought he was real clever about it; he sure pulled the wool over Bob Baffert’s eyes. He was dumbfounded — never saw it coming — and he’s been getting tricked by these horses for years. He was totally outfoxed when Charlatan and Gamine started shooting up behind his back at Oaklawn last year, and he wasn’t even around when Justify intimidated the California Racing Board into sweeping another failed test under the rug before the 2018 Derby. Poor Bob. Every time the guy leaves the state of California, his horses start abusing illegal medications.
To be honest, I’m making fun of the situation because I’m disappointed. I don’t really want to talk too much about Medina Spirit’s failed drug test. I think the continuation of Bob Baffert’s career is a black mark on an already notorious sport, and will discourage casual followers from spectating and wagering for as long as he has top-level horses in big races. But I’m in this for the long haul, and so are many of you. So we can complain about a problem that won’t go away, but it’s not like we’re going to stop watching. A more in-depth discussion about doping can come on another day. Let’s look at the field:
Pimlico, Race 13
G1 Preakness Stakes for Three-Year-Olds, 1 3/16 Miles on the Dirt
1- Ram
This runner began Derby Day festivities at Churchill Downs last time out, taking an allowance race at 9-1 odds in the first. He had a lot of trouble putting the pieces together and remained winless in his first seven starts, but he has now won two straight, albeit at the maiden and high allowance levels. The 81 BSF he earned in his most recent effort seemed to come under reasonable conditions, which means that he’ll have to improve massively to topple some of the contenders in this field. D. Wayne Lukas is being a little too ambitious here for my liking.
2- Keepmeinmind
This colt finished seventh in the Kentucky Derby at 49-1 odds, and the only way to predict such a good run from the long shot was by looking at his two-year-old form. Back in 2020, he was a regular contender against the likes of Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie, two horses he finished behind in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. His form entering the Derby was very poor, but he has demonstrated ability in the past. He ran wide in the Derby and put in a solid performance, but I’m not sure the trip was bad enough to justify an eight length defeat to fellow runner Medina Spirit. He could very well take another step forward here, but he’s only won one start in seven tries and a big try will be necessary here.
3- Medina Spirit
There are occasions when a handicapper has to deal with unknown variables, and this is one of those cases. We don’t know if Medina Spirit’s performance in the Derby was enhanced by the drug in question, we don’t know how long Baffert was administering it to him, and unfortunately, we don’t know what else he might be on. I’m only going to deal with what I know here: that Medina Spirit got a very easy lead in the Derby, and in other cases where he got to the front early, like the G3 Robert B. Lewis, he has proven very tough to beat. Therefore, I believe that the most conceivable path to defeat for this colt in the second leg of the Triple Crown is if he is outsprinted early on.
Barring any bad racing luck (another unknown variable), the only runner in this race that conceivably beat him in the first quarter mile is Concert Tour, who should be rushing to get in from the far outside. The problem: Concert Tour is the other Baffert runner in the race, and it’s unlikely that he would directly run against himself. That’s a problem for the trainer, because he has two horses in the race that do their best running on the front end, and sending both could set up a dangerous speed duel and tire them out.
With so much unknown to handicappers, betting comes down to value, and this is the silver lining in the Medina Spirit puzzle for this race. There seem to be a lot of ways that he can regress and not nearly as many scenarios pointing to improvement. At 9-5 odds on the morning line, I believe it will be a far wiser idea to bet against him in search of a horse with more upside.
4- Crowded Trade
Does anyone remember a colt named Cloud Computing? He won the 2017 Preakness? Alright, check this out — it’s nuts. After breaking his maiden first time out for Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables in early 2017, C.C. finished second in the G3 Gotham and third in the G2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. His speed figures in those stakes races were a 96 and 90, respectively. It wasn’t enough for him to compete in the Kentucky Derby, but Brown gave him some rest and trained him up for the Preakness. With Javier Castellano aboard at Pimlico, the colt won the second leg of the Triple Crown at 13-1 odds in only his fourth start with a much improved 102 BSF.
Crowded Trade broke his maiden first time out for Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables in early 2021. He then finished second in the G3 Gotham and third in the G2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. His speed figures in those races were a 95 and 87, respectively. Instead of running him in the Derby, Brown has chosen to train him up for the Preakness. In his fourth start, he is 10-1 on the morning line with Javier Castellano aboard. Follow up question: Has anyone seen The Matrix?
When I watched the replay of this colt’s maiden win, I was very impressed by his turn of foot. I bet on him in the G3 Gotham and published a glowing opinion on Paddy’s Picks. I didn’t write about the Wood, but I liked him there too. These parallels might just be too much for me to resist.
5- Midnight Bourbon
I really respect this battler. The colt has run very consistently this year against some of the very best of his division, and his performance in the Derby was no different. He had to deal with a trip completely unsuited to his usual running style, encountered his fair share of trouble along the way, and still finished respectably in sixth. His only two victories, however, have come with very easy leads on the front end, something he probably isn’t capable of achieving here. If he ever learns to pass horses in the stretch, his consistency could translate well into more victories, even at this level. That being said, I feel uncomfortable betting him on top without seeing it first. He may be valuable in exotics.
6- Rombauer
This colt is lightly raced this year, having only run twice since February. After a cheap win in the El Camino Real Derby, he was no match for Essential Quality and Highly Motivated in the G2 Blue Grass, as he finished behind the two Derby runners by nearly six lengths. He’s improving with each start and most recently earned an 88 BSF, but it’s very difficult to imagine him progressing enough to win on such a big stage at this time.
7- France Go De Ina
As a two-year-old in Japan, this runner looked like the goods in controlling maiden and allowance victories. But travel and time off over the winter seemed to hinder his form, as he reappeared in Dubai for the U.A.E. Derby in March and seemed completely flat. Trainer Hideyuki Mori is giving him a great vote of confidence, however, as he ships the highly touted colt across… one of the oceans to race in the U.S. He could improve in his second start off the layoff, and Japanese connections that have taken sent their horses over for the Triple Crown in recent years have done fairly well. I doubt we’ll see him on top, though.
8- Unbridled Honor
This colt sure found his footing last time out in the G3 Lexington, flying from the back to take place money at 20-1 odds. I don’t want to take too much away from his performance, because it was an improvement, but I do suspect he was aided by a good trip, great pace scenario and favorable track conditions. I won’t take him on top, but if a speed duel develops here, as it very well could, I wouldn’t be surprised if this one picked up another minor check.
9- Risk Taking
He seems like Chad Brown’s other horse in the race, but no runner of his should be overlooked. He looked very impressive winning the G3 Withers two starts back, and while that was definitely the weakest of the N.Y. Derby preps, it still doesn’t explain his sudden regression in the G2 Wood Memorial. Entering the race as the favorite, he seemed flat throughout despite being in a closing position that worked for others. He may have more of say during the Saratoga meet later this summer, but I wouldn’t venture a wager on him at this time. In addition, his regular jockey, Irad Ortiz, has been assigned to fellow runner Midnight Bourbon.
10- Concert Tour
This colt is the X-factor in the race. As a competitor, he’s had an excellent spring, winning three of four races with competitive speed figures. He came up empty in the G1 Arkansas Derby, when Caddo River dueled with him early and opened the door for a long shot closer late. I can forgive that, and I think Baffert made the right decision skipping the Derby, He’s never demonstrated much patience and always seems to be contention, which means that he’ll be gunning for the rail early from the far outside. This creates an interesting dynamic with Medina Spirit. His Derby winning stablemate has the same early speed tendencies, and if another duel develops, this race can become considerably more competitive. With Baffert training both horses, it’s impossible to know how he’ll handle this situation, but if both horses run to form, they may inadvertently create an interesting race scenario.
I’d like to ponder one more idea about Concert Tour. If Medina Spirit hadn’t won the Kentucky Derby, would he be in this race? Baffert has been pointing Concert Tour to the Preakness for a month, but Medina Spirit is in the race almost out of necessity. If he had lost to Mandaloun, I have a strong suspicion that Brad Cox’s runner would be here and Baffert would have a single entry. What if this guy has been the one all along?
Order: 4 10 5 3
My top two selections are the pair that I’m considering to win this race. Crowded Trade is definitely more of a hunch play, and while I don’t believe he’s the best horse in the race, I think he presents the most upside at a price. I believe that Concert Tour is the Baffert horse that’s been prepared for this race, and if he can get into a good position from the far outside, he’ll be very dangerous in the late stages. That being said, it’s hard to get around Medina Spirit’s presence as Baffert’s primary focus, and the far outside post is a killer. If he had drawn farther inside, he would be the pick. Midnight Bourbon is always around, but he doesn’t seem intent on passing horses in the stretch, so I can’t help but temper my expectations for the hearty colt. It just feels like Medina Spirit is going to finish third or fourth. I feel like we’ve seen his best possible effort, and I believe there are horses in this race that make very compelling cases for potential improvement. I’ll be betting against him and feel morally righteous doing so.