The heroes have been vanquished. Last month, Tiz the Law’s dominant three-year-old campaign came to a screeching halt in a Kentucky Derby defeat to Authentic that still seems surreal upon rewatching. Meanwhile, super filly Gamine struggled mightily in the Oaks as she succumbed to more demanding route conditions. Both runners are skipping the month of October in preparation for the Breeders’ Cup, leaving fans in a slightly more dull world on Preakness Day.
The Black-Eyed Susan Stakes will be contested without all top three runners in the Oaks, while the Preakness is missing the best three-year-old in the country. The narratives aren’t too compelling, and the media attention will likely be diminished. That makes this day of racing valuable to one group of people: the handicappers.
For groups of people expecting the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Day is always a little unassuming. However, for those groups of people that watch Aqueduct on a Friday afternoon in January, Preakness Day is like the Fourth of July. 12 stakes races at Pimlico offer little in the way of documentary-style drama, but handicappers don’t need that to have their fun. They need large fields and a few live long shots, and this card has no shortage of either.
The Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic are days of broad appeal, landmark occasions in the sport that attract racing fans of every creed. On Preakness Day, Barclay Tagg and his professional training methods will likely cost NBC millions of dollars. Meanwhile, Bob Baffert’s decision to keep Gamine in sprints probably cost the network a few more million. However, their respective decisions helped to create a vast, uncertain and exciting landscape that only experienced handicappers can navigate. This day has become an opportunity for the saltiest among our ranks to explore a brave new world.
Race 1
Selima Stakes (Ungraded) for Two-Year-Old Fillies, 1 1/16 Miles on the Turf
This race is a little tricky because there’s very little to distinguish between the top runners. They’re all lightly raced and have reached this point in very similar ways. In addition, they’re two-year-old fillies that can vastly improve in between starts. My best attempt:
4- Domestic Expertise
2- Golden Voice
1- Fluffy Socks
3- Invincible Gal (GB)
Order: 4 2 1 3
There are a few very evenly matched contenders here, so I turned to trip handicapping to differentiate between the similar speed figures. At that point, Domestic Expertise and Golden Voice became my clear top two runners. While he didn’t win his first start, Domestic Expertise ran very gamely to take second behind Editor at Large in a maiden race at Saratoga. Meanwhile, Golden Voice looked very impressive putting away two horses in a duel and then staving off late runners to win by open lengths at Kentucky Downs. They’ll likely combine forces in my exacta bet.
Meanwhile, Fluffy Socks’ performance looks pedestrian by comparison, though the figure she earned in her maiden win keeps her in contention. Invincible Gal performed bravely in between horses in the Sorority Stakes, but still barely managed to defeat fellow runner Tic Tic Tic Boom, a long shot with a bad habit of laying back in the starting gate.
Race 2
Galorette Stakes (G3) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Turf
For a graded stakes race, the offering here is a little light. However, there’s enough talent on display to wake me up before noon, and that’s saying something on this beautiful Saturday morning. There’s at least one potential Breeders’ Cup contender, and several more that may just break through. My top four:
1- Juliet Foxtrot
3- She’sonthewarpath
8- Varenka
4- No Mo Lady
Order: 1 3 8 4
I really tried to beat Juliet Foxtrot. I really did, and while She’sonthewarpath is a very enticing offer that I may end up betting in some way, her competition seems a little too stiff. Juliet Foxtrot has been performing at higher levels of racing than this, and a runner dropping into a G3 race can’t be ignored. Varenka and No Mo Lady are both outside contenders, but I gave Varenka the edge based on some serious back class.
Race 3
Skipat Stakes (Ungraded) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
I’m not overly fond of this race because there are five fillies with a chance. As a sportsman, that’s an exciting event, but for a handicapper, it’s a nightmare. As a result, this isn’t a race I would consider profitable, though I do take my shot nonetheless:
4- Liza Star
1- Chalon
6- Bronx Beauty
3- Never Enough Time
Order: 4 1 6 3
There are a few runners in this race improving and a few others taking steps back, but Liza Star may be the only one that’s repeatedly put in the same solid performance. She doesn’t always win, but she doesn’t seem averse to it either. I think this is a very reasonable spot for her, and I’m happy to see that she isn’t the morning line favorite. Chalon has that honor, and while I believe she’s competitive here, I also think that she’s been in better condition in the past.
While she’s been taking a step back, Bronx Beauty improved significantly to take the Regret Stakes in her last start with an 82 BSF. It’s never too safe to bet on one performance though, and I believe Liza Star has been just as fast for a longer period of time. Never Enough Time fills out the top four after several solid performances, ones that could easily win this very tricky race.
Race 4
Hilltop Stakes (Ungraded) for Three-Year-Old Fillies, 1 Mile on the Turf
Alright, I have no feel for this one. The field is huge, and all the runners have been prepared for the start in different ways. At some point, a handicapper has to throw his hands in the air and have some fun. I’ll be placing a small wager and little else, and I’d advise pick four and five players to spread here.
10- Shimmering (Ire)
7- Vigilantes Way
5- Evil Lyn
3- Caravel
Order: 10 7 5 3
Shimmering will be making her stateside debut for Graham Motion, and that sounds like something I can get on board with. The presence of John Velasquez bolsters my confidence further for the long shot. Vigilantes Way has very little seasoning on the turf, but it seems like she really loves to run regardless of the surface, and no one’s ever gone broke betting on horses like that. Evil Lyn has displayed courage on the front end at several points in her career, and could very well be there at the end in this one. That brings us to Caravel, and I know, I get it. But come on, you have to admit that she’s a charming type on paper. She took her opponents’ lunch money at Penn National, and then actually turned in a legitimate performance on the synthetic track at Presque Isle. She’s entertaining to watch, and she deserves to be in my top four.
Race 5
Miss Preakness Stakes (G3) for Three-Year-Old Fillies, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
This race feels a little weird, like it’s missing something. I can’t quite put my finger on it, but it’s the third or fourth race on this card that I’m a little underwhelmed by. Perhaps I’m just spoiled. My top four:
5- Mundaye Call
1- Ain’t No Elmers
2- Wicked Whisper
4- Sound Machine
Order: 5 1 2 4
I don’t love Mundaye Call because I don’t think she’s truly a top-level sprinter. However, I don’t see anything here in the way of competition for her. Last time out, she ran poorly but had to duel against Four Graces, a filly that I do consider to be top notch. This time around, she’ll likely have to duel against Fly On Angel. That’s not as good as getting the lead to herself, but I think she can handle cheap speed against this field. Ain’t No Elmers is the only other serious contender here, and if Mundaye Call collapses again, she’ll be the one picking up the pieces.
Race 6
Dinner Party Stakes (G2) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Turf
The favorite here is deserving and the contenders will have to improve. My top four:
7- Factor This
2- Somelikeithotbrown
1- True Valour (Ire)
3- Hembree
Order: 7 1 2 3
I loved Factor This in the G1 Turf Classic last time out, so you can imagine my frustration when he was run down in the final 100 yards at 5-1 odds. Regardless, his performance that day was superb and makes him a very deserving favorite here. Somelikeithotbrown is clearly most effective near or on the lead, and he lost that opportunity early on last time out. I expect him to make some sort of recovery in this start. That being said, I don’t know if he’s significantly better than True Valour, who is currently being disrespected at 12-1 on the morning line. I expect far more from him. Hembree is an honest runner that lacks winning aspirations.
Race 7
Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash (G3) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
This is a more wide open affair, with several professional runners from around the country trying their hand in a low level sprint stakes. These are often fun to watch and a nightmare to bet. My top four:
5- Landeskog
7- Stan the Man
1- Admiral Lynch
2- Krsto Skye
Order: 5 7 1 2
Landeskog was named after a hockey player, but pretend you don’t know that. Pretend he was named after a mythical beast from Norwegian folklore. Sounds better now, doesn’t it? He was extremely impressive in several starts last year, and based on his 2020 debut, he seems prepared to pick up where he left off. Stan the Man is one of my New York favorites, and I know him as a fighter that outruns his odds. Admiral Lynch is a relative newcomer to this class, but some excellent performances in allowance competition make him a good fit here. It’s unlikely that Krsto Skye was getting stiff competition at Gulfstream in September, but that shouldn’t take away from his standing all that much.
Race 8
Laurel Futurity (Ungraded) for Two-Year-Olds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Turf
Here’s another tricky two-year-old race to throw a wrench in all those multi-race bets. My tepid top four:
8- Hidden Enemy (Ire)
1- Pivotal Mission
3- Wootton Asset (Fr)
6- Arrest Me Red
Order: 8 1 3 6
This is a three-horse race for me, but it feels a little strange to have two maidens on top. Regardless, Hidden Enemy and Pivotal Mission have run faster races than the rest of this field, and I think one of them is going to break through here. Wootton Asset is the outsider making his stateside debut for Graham Motion, and it appears that his potential overseas could give him an edge here.
Race 9
James W. Murphy Stakes (Ungraded) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 Mile on the Turf
This New York boy ain’t used to these big fields and such. This is another brutal one where half the field stands a chance. Spread at all costs:
7- Vanzzy
10- Don Juan Kitten
13- Bye Bye Melvin
11- Buy Land and Sea
Order: 7 10 13 11
I think Vanzzy deserves a pass for his last start after a bad break immediately eliminated him from contention. If he gets back to some of his previous races, he’ll be a very serious contender here. Don Juan Kitten and Bye Bye Melvin were very evenly matched last time out, which makes them very hard to judge this time around. Buy Land and Sea is my only pick not coming out of the G3 Saranac, but may take a step forward here stretching out.
Race 10
Black-Eye Susan Stakes (G2) for Three-Year-Old Fillies, 1 1/8 Miles on the Dirt
Shedaresthedevil and Gamine are skipping, while Swiss Skydiver is running in the Preakness. This is what’s left, and the scraps are never appetizing. My top four:
5- Bonny South
10- Landing Zone
8- Hopeful Growth
3- So Darn Hot
Order: 5 10 8 3
Without her usual competitors Bonny South seems to be alone in terms of quality talent in this race. She’s run very well in the past, and she’s being given a golden opportunity to break through here. Landing Zone definitely feels like a wise guy, or girl I suppose, but her speed figures seem legitimate and she finds a weak field to step up in class. Hopeful Growth and So Darn Hot have been also-rans for most of their careers at this level, but today might be the day for them.
Race 11 (FULL ANALYSIS)
Preakness Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 3/16 Miles on the Dirt
1- Excession
This colt hasn’t run since March when he nearly upset the G2 Rebel and heavy favorite Nadal. If Nadal hadn’t suffered a career-ending injury earlier this year, it’s very possible that he would have won a Triple Crown race by now, which puts Excession in good company. However, I believe the long shot’s performance that day was heavily aided by the sloppy track and a favorable pace scenario from the back. He also hasn’t raced in seven months, and while that layoff could have helped him develop, it also means that he may need a race to get back into the flow of things.
2- Mr. Big News
I’m a little disappointed that I didn’t like this runner more in the Kentucky Derby, because I had very little to criticize about him. He’s taken to making a very bold move around the turn that I tend to like to see, but I didn’t think he could replicate such a move in a race as competitive as the Derby. I was clearly wrong, as he gave another very strong performance to finish third behind Authentic and Tiz the Law at massive odds. For fans of this horse, there will be a lot of speed in this race that should give him an opportunity to make a late run. However, he’s never really defeated a very good horse on fair footing. He may just be three lengths slower than Authentic, although I’ll admit that I’m curious about his chances here given the likely pace scenario.
3- Art Collector
I think Authentic is going down. This runner was touted as the second choice in the Derby before he was scratched with a slight leg injury. That’s fully healed now, and I think it was a brilliant move by trainer Thomas Drury Jr. to rest him. Many of his competitors faced off in the toughest test of their lives a month ago, and he’ll be starting fresh and in excellent condition based on his recent work tab. Moreover, he had three straight winning performances over the summer that qualify him to win this race. He’s incredibly dangerous.
4- Swiss Skydiver
This filly will be the first entered in the Preakness since Rachel Alexandra won the event over Mine That Bird in 2009. It’s a spot reserved for some of the very best fillies in racing history, and while I’m not sold on her placement in that lofty echelon, I’m not quick to disrespect her either. Back in July, she ran gamely in a runner-up performance to fellow runner Art Collector, and she followed it up with a dominant performance in the G1 Alabama. However, I’ve watched the Kentucky Oaks replay many times over, and I can’t find an excuse for her to come up short there. If she couldn’t seal the deal against a long shot filly, I struggle to see her toppling this group of fairly talented colts.
5- Thousand Words
I didn’t like him in the Derby, and then he was scratched after falling over in the paddock. Since nothing’s changed, I’ll just reuse my Derby analysis:
I think it would be a mistake to consider this runner a legitimate contender to win this race. The only performance of his career that qualifies him to win is his last start, in which he defeated Honor A.P. in a wire-to-wire effort. He earned a 104 BSF that day, the second highest in the field behind Authentic. However, wiring a four-horse field through soft fractions on a speed favoring track is literally the very best situation that this runner can find. I believe he’ll be overbet on the basis of a dressed up past performance.
6- Jesus’ Team
I’m sitting here trying to think of a joke, but nothing’s coming to me. Toss him.
7- Ny Traffic
So what happened to this plucky underdog in the Derby? First of all, I don’t think he was well placed by jockey Paco Lopez. It’s true that he often likes to stalk pace, but he usually does so through soft fractions. In this race, Lopez pushed him to find the same stalking trip, but the pace up front was faster than he was comfortable with and he wilted before it came time to run. I’d like to think that Saffie Joseph kicked Paco Lopez off the horse, but I don’t think that’s the case. Regardless, I’ve come to respect replacement rider Horacio Karamanos in the limited time I’ve spent playing Laurel. I think he’ll be best served to let his colt come from off the pace this time around. He’s demonstrated a late kick in the past, and with so much speed in this race, it could serve him very well. He’s an outsider with a chance.
8- Max Player
He’s always knocking on the door, but I fear that’s what he’s destined to do at this level. If he races here, he’ll be the only horse this year to compete in all three Triple Crown events, and he also ran in the G1 Travers for good measure. That’s a grueling schedule for any runner, and I’m not sure about his chances here. If he hasn’t broken through by now, I’m not sure that this is the time.
9- Authentic
I’m still not sure how this colt stayed in front of Tiz the Law in the Derby. On two separate occasions in the stretch, it seemed inevitable that he would be passed, but he dug in impressively both times to deny yet another Triple Crown hopeful. It was a stellar performance and a great ride by jockey John Velasquez, but I still have concerns. Much of his reputation is now built on one performance. It’s easy to forget that going into the Derby, he had a reputation as a bit of a flake. He folded in a convincing defeat to Honor A.P. and nearly blew a sure thing in the G1 Haskell against fellow runner Ny Traffic. He’s talented, and he’s coming off the best performance in this field, but I think he’s merely a contender that will be bet like something more.
10- Pneumatic
Many people, myself included, believed that this colt had a sneaky chance against Tiz the Law in the Belmont Stakes. While he did finish fourth that day, he was emphatically defeated, which convinced trainer Steve Asmussen to look to more shallow waters. He brought his horse to Monmouth for the Pegasus Stakes, where he took care of business in a professional manner over fellow runner Jesus’ Team. It was an encouraging victory, but it doesn’t excite me as a key performance either. He would have to improve dramatically to win here.
11- Liveyourbeastlife
He was almost a length faster than Jesus’ Team in the G2 Jim Dandy, and he probably had the tougher trip of the pair. That might be convincing analysis in a G3 stakes, but it’s not nearly enough here.
Order: 3 9 4 7
Art Collector is scary, and that’s quite possibly the best compliment I can give to a horse. I thought Charlatan was scary in the Arkansas Derby, as well as Tiz the Law in the Belmont and Gamine in the Acorn. Every once in a while, I get the impression that a horse is sitting on a big race, and I’m getting that impression here.
To be honest, I wish I didn’t feel so certain. The last time I published my opinion was a month ago, when I touted Gamine and Tiz the Law as unbeatable monsters on consecutive days. They both lost in convincing fashion. Being uncertain and losing isn’t so bad, but losing with certainty is the worst feeling a horseplayer can have.
For the Preakness, I was hoping for a wide open field where I could provide solid analysis and try my best to differentiate between some evenly matched runners. In that case, I could hedge my bet and make it clear that I was uncertain. If I won, I would get credit for deciphering a tough race, and if I lost, I’d be one of many.
But now I have conviction, and it would be dishonest for me to publish something that I didn’t believe. I’m convinced that Art Collector is going to defeat Authentic today. If I believe that in my living room, then I should believe it on my website too.
I like Swiss Skydiver and Ny Traffic underneath, because I think they’re talented runners that deserve another crack at the big boys. If Swiss Skydiver wins, I’ll be very happy, as I envision a sport in the future that includes far more intergender competition than key racing people currently allow. If Ny Traffic wins, it will be long overdue. This is a race to look forward to.
Race 12
UAE President’s Cup (G1) for Arabian Four-Year-Olds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt
I don’t know what’s going on here, and neither do you. I’ll play this in private, but I won’t pretend to know anything about Arabian horse racing. I’ll spare you my analysis, because I don’t have any.
Where have you been ? I’ve been lost without you .