On Friday afternoon, I turned to Emma Moquin and made a very simple request. I knew she was busy doing schoolwork, as her semester at Penn State started before mine. I also knew that she liked to work diligently and with painstaking care, so when I asked her to fully analyze two 12-horse races in a single night, one can imagine my shock when she readily agreed.
Emma’s love of horse racing is more well-hidden than mine, because she’s cool and has a reputation to uphold. I, on the other hand, have no such issues, and that allows me to create a website and over 200 articles dedicated to a sport no one’s cared about since the Nixon administration took over.
That being said, Emma is an excellent handicapper, and has impressed in nearly every appearance she’s made on this site. Her most notable achievement was selecting Authentic to defeat Tiz the Law in the Kentucky Derby, something that no other New Yorker had the heart to do. She makes her triumphant return here with me to provide full analysis for the Pegasus World Cup Turf and Dirt.
For analysis of the first 10 races at Gulfstream Saturday, make sure to check out my full-card analysis here.
Race 11
Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 3/16 Miles on the Turf
1- Next Shares
Emma: I am unfamiliar with this jockey and trainer, but I feel less stupid because their jockey-trainer percentage is 0, which make me feel slightly justified. His workouts are okay, but nothing to brag about. This horse has pretty good speed figures, but has not won a race since Nov. 2019. I believe it is also worth mentioning that this horse lost to Anothertwistafate (8) in his last race. While this horse isn’t terrible, I do not think he has any chance of winning.
Patrick: There is some merit to this runner, but not nearly enough to consider him for the top spot. His race two back in the G2 Seabiscuit is worth a second look, as he had to negotiate a difficult trip and still finished well to take third ahead of fellow runner Anothertwistafate. However, he used the same race as a prep for last year’s PWC Turf and finished 12th. In his most recent start, he came up flat in the G2 San Gabriel, allowing Anothertwistafate to get his revenge with a convincing victory. Drayden Van Dyke and Richard Baltas have not won with one another in over a year and the horse hasn’t won since 2019. In addition, the added distance and absence of Lasix have combined to hurt him in the past. I’d look elsewhere.
2- Breaking the Rules
Emma: I am a big Johnny V. fan and I like him teamed up with McGaughey on this horse. Together they have an impressive 30% jockey-trainer percentage. This horse also has great workouts in his favor. He doesn’t have the best speed figures in the race, but he does have consistency. Breaking the Rules has lost to Largent (6) twice before, and while I do really like this horse overall, he isn’t my pick to win.
Patrick: This is the sort of runner I would take note of in an allowance, but not necessarily in a big race like this one. The issue isn’t his effort, as the six-year-old nearly always gives an honest account of himself. However, in big races against elite competition, he’s always appeared to be a step slow at the finish. In his last race, he had no legitimate excuse for being outrun by fellow runner Largent in the G2 Fort Lauderdale, as he had to settle for third after a big move on the turn. That being said, Shug McGaughey and John Velasquez make for excellent connections, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see this runner take show money.
3- Storm the Court
Emma: I do know who Leparoux is, but I am not a huge fan and the jockey-trainer percentage is 0%. Not great. He has good workouts, which is nice to see. His speed figures are up and down along with his performances. This horse has also not won a race since Nov. 2019. This horse is okay, but definitely not my favorite.
Patrick: When I last spoke about this upset winner of the 2019 BC Juvenile in my Kentucky Derby Analysis, I said, “He’ll be a long shot again… but I have to admit that I’m vaguely interested.” I picked him to finish fifth in the Derby, and while the rest of my analysis that day was generally poor, I was onto something with this colt. He did outrun his odds, finishing sixth at 27-1. He’s switched to the turf since then, and while he still hasn’t won since that improbable victory as a two-year-old, I can’t say that I hate him.
It’s clear that trainer Peter Eurton had been pointing him to the turf for some time but paused those plans to enter him in the Kentucky Derby. He’s transitioned fully to the turf now though, and he’s run fairly well on the new surface. He was way out of his league coming off a layoff in the G1 Hollywood Derby, and he didn’t display the early speed he’s typically known for. The colt found it in his next start, taking the early lead in the G2 Mathis Brothers Mile, where he ran bravely in a runner-up performance to superior runner Smooth Like Strait. He seems to be adjusting well to the new surface, and while it’s unclear if he can handle this distance on the turf, he’s run further on dirt with success. He’s at least a pace presence here in his four-year-old debut.
4- North Dakota
Emma: You can’t go wrong with an Ortiz brother, and with McGaughey as the trainer, the pair on this horse have an impressive 21% jockey-trainer percentage. This horse has mostly good workouts, which is promising. With him, we see our first recent triple digit speed figure of 101. North Dakota also seems to be improving with each race. He is against some tough competition, but he is my favorite underdog in the race.
Patrick: It may have taken seven tries for this runner to break his maiden, but the victories haven’t been so difficult since. He’s one four of his last six starts while rapidly moving up in class. He won his first graded stakes last time out in the G3 Red Smith, earning a 101 BSF while closing at 8-1 odds. This is yet another big step up, and if he tries to win the same way he did last time, he’ll have to depend on a fair amount of luck to find the right trip. He’s never won a race in his first start off a layoff and always seems to improve on his second start, but he’s been improving in the right direction for the better part of a year. He could very well win, though I will be supporting others.
5- Colonel Liam
Emma: Here we find Irad, the other Ortiz brother, with Todd Pletcher, which is a pretty elite duo with a jockey-trainer percentage of 34% to back it up. This horse has pretty good workouts, but doesn’t have the best speed figures. However, he has faced some of the best turf competition in the Saratoga Derby back in August where he came in fourth. He is the favorite, but I do believe there are a couple horses in the field who could beat him.
Patrick: Coming off a four-month layoff, this lightly raced colt was very impressive in his return to the track last December. He proved to be much the best that day in the Tropical Park Derby, making a very powerful move on the turn and cruising home to win by 3 1/2 lengths. He received a light 94 BSF for the performance, but there’s no doubt in my mind that he could go faster if the circumstances called for it. He’s now had a prep on the Gulfstream turf and a freshener after time off, which makes him a very dangerous runner here. The distance isn’t a question either, as he performed surprisingly well at 1 3/16 miles at Saratoga against highly touted rivals Domestic Spending and Gufo.
6- Largent
Emma: Here we have the second Pletcher horse and on him is Lopez, who I don’t love. Despite my personal opinion, together they have a jockey-trainer percentage of 17%, so do with that what you will. This horse doesn’t have the most consistent speed figures, but in his past nine races, he has not placed worse than second. He does, however, face tougher competition today, though he has also beaten Breaking the Rules with a 97 speed figure before. This shows promise that when faced with tougher opponents he will be able to rise to the occasion. I look forward to seeing what he does.
Patrick: After two months on the shelf, trainer Todd Pletcher entered this runner in his graded stakes debut in the G2 Fort Lauderdale Stakes. In a race where notorious speedballs Factor This and Halladay ran each other into the ground, the front end of the field collapsed and opened things up for the closers. Largent and fellow runner Breaking the Rules both flew from the back, but Paco Lopez gave his mount the perfect trip, guiding the gelding off the rail to a 16-1 upset victory by two lengths. In nine starts, he’s never finished outside the top two, a testament to his competitive nature but also to the competition he’s faced. A handicapper sometimes has to determine the key races for the event they’re looking at, and in this case, I think the performance of any closer in that specific stakes race was dressed up by surprising circumstances. This horse adores the Gulfstream turf, but the distance is a question and he’ll have to deliver the best race of his career (again) if he wants to win.
7- Aquaphobia
Emma: Oof. This horse has a lot going on. First, he has Bravo and Marker who have a pretty okay 20% jockey-trainer percentage. He has okay workouts and less than okay races. He has lost to Cross Border (9) and North Dakota (4) in past races with some of his best speed figures, but has beaten Social Paranoia (12), which is a glimmer of light for an otherwise bleak horse. I will be shocked if this horse wins.
Patrick: The eight-year-old took a very long time to break through the allowance condition, but after several years worth of average performances, he came alive in 2020 to win several graded stakes races. The trouble since his improvement has been figuring out when he’s been due for a big performance, as they’ve come sporadically. He ran his heart out to win the G1 United Nations in July, but he was defeated handily in two subsequent starts. He improved last time out in the G3 Red Smith, but was outfinished by fellow runner North Dakota. Coming off a short layoff, it’s unclear if he’ll manage to hit the front in this one.
8- Anothertwistafate
Emma: I am not a Rosario enthusiast, but a jockey-trainer percentage of 24% is nothing to laugh at. This horse has also been having some great workouts. My big problem with this horse is the fact that he is a lead horse and is not the only one in the race. My prediction is that Storm the Court (3) and him will go to the front, fight for the lead, and both lose their steam, allowing other horses like Colonel Liam to pass them by. He did, however, beat Next Shares (1) in his last race, so he does have some staying speed. This horse definitely has a good chance, but I am personally wary of his ability to maintain his speed when challenged.
Patrick: He’s only recently made the switch to the turf after primarily running on dirt, but in two starts, it’s obvious that this is what he’s wanted to do all along. In his second race after nearly a year off, he made his grass debut in the G2 Seabiscuit, where he had to duel for the lead early on. The fight tired him out by the time he reached the stretch, but he still held well to finish fourth. In his last start, Peter Miller stretched his horse out to 1 1/8 miles and he improved to easily take the G2 San Gabriel with a 103 BSF. He’s a surefire contender in this race, though he may have to deal with fellow runner Storm the Court to his inside early on here.
9- Cross Border
Emma: Another surprisingly good jockey-trainer percentage of 23% from Gaffalione and Marker. He has okay workouts and has beaten Aquaphobia (7) in the past. There is frankly nothing too special with this horse and quite frankly I just don’t think he could beat some of the other horses in the race.
Patrick: Over the course of his long career, this seven-year-old has always managed to run well in big races without winning them. He won the G2 Bowling Green via disqualification, but this race is far more competitive than that and will require more of him. He’s also winless at the distance and at Gulfstream, making him a difficult runner to endorse.
10- Pixelate
Emma: I have absolutely no idea who Zayas is so that’s a rough start for this horse. His workouts are bad and so are his speed figures despite winning his past race. Cross Border and Pixelate might as well be the same horse. I just don’t believe that he can compete with some of the other and better horses in the race.
Patrick: This long shot has never run nearly fast enough to win this race and has never run at Gulfstream. Speed figures don’t matter as much on the turf, and his performance in the G3 Kent behind Gufo back in July was promising, but that’s not nearly enough for me to select him here.
11- Say the Word
Emma: Prat and D’Amato have a great jockey-trainer percentage of 29%. He has bad workouts, but I am willing to overlook this because this horse’s speed figures seem to be improving with each race, with an incredible 102 in his last. If this horse can start at the middle of the pack, there is no doubt in my mind that he could win, but he has a tendency to stay in the back and fly forwards. This horse would need a perfect trip, but that is not impossible.
Patrick: His last two performances have been massive improvements over anything else he’s ever done, as this gelding has gone from allowance runner to stakes horse after a few months off the track in mid-2020. His last race is the key performance, as he closed from way back to finish third behind Arklow in the G2 Hollywood Turf Cup, earning a 102 BSF in the process. He’s proven at this distance and is obviously entering the race in good condition, but his closing style will require a good deal of luck down the stretch. That running style and his relative lack of experience in the upper echelons of racing make him a volatile option with clear upside.
12- Social Paranoia
Emma: I don’t like Saez, which I understand is a bit of a hot take, but I do like Pletcher and they join together to form a good jockey-trainer percentage of 23%. He has great workouts. He also won his last two races with Ortiz on him, so he has the potential to do great things in this race. We will Saez can get this horse first place, which is a definite possibility.
Patrick: This horse has been dangerously close to becoming a top contender for some time now, but he had to take time off in the middle of his four-year-old season in 2020, which cut him off as he was rounding into form. He returned strong with a fast-closing allowance victory at Gulfstream that obviously served as a prep for this race, and it’s very likely that he hasn’t lost a step since he won the G3 Poker back in July. The success of his running style is clearly dependent on a perfect trip from the back, but he’s done it with such consistency in the past that he’s more trustworthy than other runners like him in this race. That being said, I have to worry about the outside post hurting his chances.
Emma’s Order: 6 5 4
Pat’s Order: 5 12 8 11
Race 12
Pegasus World Cup Dirt (G1) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
1- Sleepy Eyes Todd
Emma: We love to see an Ortiz brother, but I am unfamiliar with the trainer, though I trust Jose to do the job well. He has bad workouts, but his performances speak for themselves. His past two races have been excellent with speed figures of 100 and 98. I also believe that this horse is getting a jockey upgrade (Gaffalione to Ortiz), which is encouraging for today’s race. This is an interesting horse.
Patrick: More than just an unnecessary jab at a reporter on NBC, this horse has been in excellent condition since returning to the track last August. His one defeat in his last four starts came in the G1 Awesome Again behind the likes of Improbable and Maximum Security, two runners that are superior to any horse he’ll face here. In two recent sprint attempts, he had to abandon his front running style, but should return to it as he stretches out in distance here. His performance in the G2 Charles Town Classic is a promising sign that he can handle this, though he’ll likely have to improve a little to land on top.
2- Coastal Defense
Emma: This horse has a jockey-trainer combo that I am not overly familiar with and they have an okay jockey-trainer percentage of 14%. In his last two races he came in fourth, which is unfortunate because in the past two races he lost to Code of Honor and Mr. Freeze. His speed figures are excellent in his past two races, but that does not mean that he is in any way ready for the race. Unless a miracle occurs, this horse is not my pick.
Patrick: This lightly raced five-year-old spent a long time in the allowance conditions, but has improved dramatically in recent starts to join graded stakes competition. In the G1 Clark last time out, he found a reasonable trip that could’ve won him the race, but he was outkicked by fellow runner Code of Honor and talented closer Owendale. He’s been trending in the right direction as of late, but he’ll have to continue to improve to have a say here.
3- Independence Hall
Emma: This horse has an okay jockey-trainer percentage of 13% with Prat and McCarthy. Not my favorite. His last performance is discouraging with a lower-than-expected speed figure and fifth place finish. I do not believe that this horse has any chance of winning today’s race.
Patrick: At one point in 2019, this runner was highly touted as a contender for the Kentucky Derby, but after a poor showing in the G1 Florida Derby behind Tiz the Law, those plans were shelved. He returned in November with a victory in an allowance race, but his next start in the G1 Malibu was very weak as he was crushed by Charlatan, a very talented three-year-old returning from an injury. It’s difficult to support this runner in this spot based on the information given.
4- Knicks Go
Emma: As previously stated, I am not a huge Rosario fan, but to say that he knows what he is doing is a major understatement. As the definition of a lead horse, he is the obvious favorite of the race. His speed figures in his last race are an insane 108 when he beat Jesus’ Team. This horse really doesn’t need my sales pitch and is the horse to beat in this race.
Patrick: He only competed three times in 2020 after two long layoffs, but his record was spotless. This five-year-old has a strange reputation in the racing world. As a two-year-old, he entered the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as an unknown but stunned everyone with a runner-up finish at long odds. This led to Derby buzz as a three-year-old, but he performed so poorly in his campaign that he became a bit of a laughing stock. He finished his three-year-old season without a victory in eight starts, but in his four-year-old season, everyone had to eat their words. After two allowance wins seven months apart, both earning triple-digit speed figures, Brad Cox entered him in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile without a formal prep. He crushed the field in a wire-to-wire victory, earning a 108 BSF in the process.
The performance makes him a very clear favorite in this race, and I’m certainly not going to stray too far, but I’m also being careful not to develop tunnel vision. He’s certainly been dominant as of late, but I don’t believe he’s in the unbeatable realm just yet. This is a big field of talented horses, and while I’m not leaving him off any of my tickets, I’m trying to have some fun too.
5- Jesus’ Team
Emma: The other Ortiz brother appears and with the trainer D’Angelo they have an excellent jockey-trainer percentage of 33%. This horse is impressive, but I don’t think it could beat Knicks Go in the competition for early speed. It has even previously lost to Knicks Go, despite getting a 102 speed figure this day. He is inconsistent in his running style and I just don’t think he will be able to beat Knicks Go, even with a perfect trip.
Patrick: This colt spent his three-year-old season picking up minor checks in some of the most prestigious races on the American racing calendar. Without winning any of those major races, he finished in the top four in the G1 Haskell Invitational, the G2 Jim Dandy, the Preakness and the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. Along the way, he lost to Authentic, Swiss Skydiver and fellow runner Knicks Go, and while he didn’t get anywhere close to defeating any of those runners, he may just be able to collect a minor check again here at his home track.
6- Kiss Today Goodbye
Emma: I don’t like this jockey-trainer combo mostly because I think Mike Smith is a little overrated and the 11% with Eric Kruljac backs me up. His past two performances are promising, but I wish the horse had more early speed. There is nothing really special about this horse and I don’t believe that he will be able to compete at this level.
Patrick: After a brief spell on the turf, this runner returned to the dirt with two strong victories in his most recent starts, including the G2 San Antonio. However, his best start came back in August when he finished third behind Kentucky Derby contenders Thousand Words and Honor A.P., and even that performance wouldn’t win this race. He’ll have to significant improve to win here.
7- Tax
Emma: This is the other horse to look out for in my opinion. His last race is extremely impressive. He was able to maintain the lead with a 105 speed figure. He has previously lost to Code of Honor twice and Mr. Freeze twice. I understand that this isn’t exactly the best, but I’m deciding to be optimistic and focus on his last race. I think this horse has some real potential here.
Patrick: Back in Jul. 2019, when Tax defeated Tacitus to take the G2 Jim Dandy, the powers of Maggie Wolfendale were in full force. After coming up short in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, Wolfendale insisted that Tax’s appearance in the paddock indicated massive improvement was coming. Sure enough, he defeated his old rival that day, and the NYRA circuit’s top racing analyst added another notch to her belt.
It took over a year for this runner to win another race, but he has excellent timing of this is indeed his resurgence. In the G3 Harlan’s Holiday, he led from gate to wire against a relatively weak field in impressive fashion, earning a 105 BSF in the process. Getting a prep race in at Gulfstream is key for this race, and to perform so well off the layoff means that he could have a even more this time around. However, he doesn’t exactly have a reputation for delivering in big spots. Following that Jim Dandy victory in 2019, he disappointed greatly in the Travers, and after going toe-to-toe with Performer in the G3 Discovery later that year, he flopped in the 2020 running of the PWC Dirt.
8- Harpers First Ride
Emma: This horse has an amazing 29% jockey-trainer percentage. Here we have another lead horse with two excellent and consistent 100 speed figures in his last races where he finished first both times. He has, however, had terrible workouts his last two times out, which is disheartening. This horse is interesting, but I prefer Tax as a competitor for Knicks Go.
Patrick: At one point in time, I doubt that trainer Claudio Gonzalez ever intended to take this gelding out of Maryland, but at some point, a horse performs too well to deny him better competition. This runner has been beating up on lower stakes competition at Laurel and Pimlico for some time now, racking up some impressive speed figures along the way.
However, he did upset Owendale in the G3 Pimlico Special back in October, the only opponent he’s faced recently that might qualify for a race of this caliber. This is obviously a step up for him, though I’m fairly confident that his very best would be good enough for a minor prize. I only have two nitpicks from there. Maryland jockey Angel Cruz will travel to Florida to ride him instead of a more reputable option, and his only workout at Gulfstream to prepare for this race was a bomb.
9- Last Judgment
Emma: Lopez and Maker have a good jockey-trainer percentage of 17% and this horse had an excellent last race, finishing first with a 103-speed figure. Despite being a lead horse, I do not believe that he will be able to beat Knicks Go. It is also worth knowing that he has previously lost to Sleepy Eyes Todd.
Patrick: This runner has been claimed twice since September and now he’s in the Pegasus World Cup. Cool, right? He’s improved lately and crushed a pack of Florida statebreds on Jan. 16 with a 103 BSF. However, he was crushed in the G3 Mr. Prospector, and this step up in class will likely be too tough for him.
10- Code of Honor
Emma: I really like this jockey-trainer combo, but I am going against their 0-for-2 jockey-trainer percentage, so whatever. He has four triple-digit speed figures in his past five races, and the other figure was a 99. His workouts are amazing and I just believe this is an overall great horse. My main concern is that he is not a lead horse. He will really have to book it late, but I think if any come-from-behind horse could do it, he is my choice.
Patrick: How many times am I going to lose money with this one? I’ve picked this horse to win the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Classic, the G1 Met Mile and the G1 Whitney, and he’s come up short on every occasion. The real problem? He still looks good on paper.
After running phenomenally well in defeat in the G2 Kelso behind Complexity, he closed like a demon but came up short again in the G1 Clark, finishing second behind Bodexpress, who ran freakishly well on the front end on a track favoring closers. He has the class and speed necessary to win this race, but his closing style and outside post may leave him with too much to do again.
11- Mr Freeze
Emma: While I love Johnny V, I am not a huge fan of this horse. He seems to have an inconsistent running style and when he does get the lead, he has a hard time maintaining that speed. He has lost to Code of Honor (twice), Knicks Go and Jesus’s Team, but had a great last workout and his speed figures are good. I just don’t believe he can compete with the rest of the field.
Patrick: At this time last year, this horse was firing on all cylinders, as he finished second in last year’s PWC before earning a 107 BSF for his victory in the G2 Gulfstream Park Mile. However, he hasn’t been the same since, and after two layoffs, he’s been defeated soundly on several occasions by other runners in this field. Perhaps a return to Gulfstream could rejuvenate the six-year-old, but I’m not quite ready to wager on such a prospect.
12- Math Wizard
Emma: This horse has a great jockey-trainer percentage of 28% and has pretty good, but inconsistent, speed figures. His workouts are okay, but he’s previously lost to Tax and Sleepy Eyes Todd. This horse really has nothing else going for it except its J/T percentage, and I do not believe it has a chance of winning.
Patrick: Beyond a 31-1 upset in the 2019 Pennsylvania Derby, this runner has a reputation as an also-ran in big events like this one. He finished six lengths behind fellow runner Tax in his first start off a layoff, but would have to improve even more to have a chance here.