Why They’ll Lose: Drawing a Line Through Every Horse in the 2023 Kentucky Derby

Unlike my previous article, this is is somewhat outside my comfort zone. I definitely prefer looking for upside in horse racing, as well as most other things, so finding fault in each Kentucky Derby runner was a unique challenge. Such an exercise is necessary, however.

Before any bettor can fully throw his support behind a runner, understanding how that horse might lose is imperative. Locks are incredibly rare, as the random nature of the sport makes them technically impossible.

It hurt me to insult some of the horses in this race, as they’ve truly impressed me and will have my support this Saturday. Others were fairly easy to rule out for any number of reasons, some plain and some more nuanced. read more

Why They’ll Win: Making a Case for Every Horse in the 2023 Kentucky Derby

We’ve all had that moment at the track where we look at a horse in the Daily Racing Form and get hooked. All the signs of a winner are there, and the warning bells that ring perpetually in handicappers’ ears become dulled by an attractive price on the tote board.

It’s surprisingly easy to grow enamored by stats on paper, especially when they’re inextricably tied to potentially profitable flesh and blood on the track. But when these feelings set in, some self-doubt may form as well. read more

Derby Prep Saturday: Cross Country Analysis

Three important preps for the Kentucky Derby will occur Saturday across the country in the span of an hour. Winners of the Blue Grass Stakes, Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial Stakes will qualify automatically for the Kentucky Derby. All three races feature wide open fields. Have I built up enough drama?

While I haven’t been able to produce much content for Paddy’s Picks as of late, it doesn’t mean that I’ve been far from the racing scene. I’ve been paying more than enough attention to know that today’s slate of preps provide as much opportunity to horsemen as they will to bettors. Let’s take a look, starting with the Blue Grass. read more

Paddy’s Picks February Invitational: Week 4 Recap

It all came down to this, and then nothing happened. To spoil the result somewhat while also providing an effective lead paragraph, none of the guest competitors in the February Invitational picked the winner of the Saudi Cup. The standings remain unchanged, leaving a tie for me to resolve in the experienced division.

After three weeks of chalk in races stateside, this international event was a profound challenge for my contestants. Some guests got close by picking Country Grammer or Cafe Pharoah, the second- and third-place finishers. But no one, myself included, came close to finding Panthalassa, a Japanese front runner switching from turf to dirt. That’s how it goes. read more

2023 Saudi Cup Analysis: Beating Taiba and Other Follies

When the gates open for the 2023 Saudi Cup, 13 highly talented horses will emerge to begin what should hopefully be an exciting race. For two minutes, these horses will be untethered from their owners and trainers and bound only to their riders, the best from around the world. That’s what I’m choosing to focus on.

In truth, I struggled with the decision to provide analysis for this race on Paddy’s Picks. Political and social issues in Saudi Arabia are gravely serious and the monarchy’s attempts to sanitize its global image through high-profile sporting events are shamelessly transparent. But Taiba doesn’t know about any of that, does he? read more

Paddy’s Picks February Invitational: Week 3 Recap

My attempts to escape the chalk may have failed, but the Fair Grounds Stakes was nevertheless a worthwhile stop in the Paddy’s Picks February Invitational. A victory for reputable turf runner Two Emmys at 9-5 odds shook up both divisions in the competition while keeping things extremely close going into the final week.

Between the scratch of deep closer Corelli and a hotly contested debate among guests between a pair of rival horses, there was plenty to appreciate about this week in New Orleans and its impact on the Invitational. Let’s take a closer look: read more

Paddy’s Picks February Invitational: Week 3 Preview

The Paddy’s Picks February Invitational continues on to its third week, where competitors will evaluate the G3 Fair Grounds Stakes at the Fair Grounds Race Course outside New Orleans.

As I write this, it’s approximately noon on the beautiful Penn State campus, where I’m visiting my sister and guest competitor Emma Moquin for the weekend. I’m exhausted, so if my writing for this preview doesn’t reflect my usual zest for life and the people in it, I offer that as an excuse.

In the first two weeks of this Invitational competition, guests analyzed the G3 Robert B. Lewis and G3 Withers Stakes, two prep races for the Kentucky Derby which yielded predictable winners at short prices. Regardless of the result this week, the Fair Grounds is almost certain to provide more value. read more

Hit Show Wins Withers Stakes, Wood Memorial Likely Next Race

The following article was submitted for my Sports Journalism class at the Columbia Graduate School of Journalism. I’ve received permission from my professors to post it on my pony blog. Enjoy! And if there’s a typo, don’t tell me.

Three-year-old colt Hit Show took his first step down the rose-laden path Saturday, winning the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack to earn 20 points toward Kentucky Derby qualification. Owned by Gary and Mary West, trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Manny Franco, the Kentucky-based runner successfully invaded New York and will likely return for the Wood Memorial Stakes in April. read more

Paddy’s Picks February Invitational: Week 2 Recap

I’ll be honest — the February Invitational has been a bit of a mixed bag so far. In Week 2, the G3 Withers, which featured a diverse field from around the country, ultimately came down to two favorites, with 6-5 Brad Cox trainee Hit Show breezing past 8-5 second choice Arctic Arrogance in the stretch to win by a wide margin. Last week, even-money favorite Newgate outlasted long shot Hard to Figure to win at a similarly short price.

In some ways, these obvious results have harmed the competition, as guests have not had to be very creative and have actually been punished for value plays. In another sense, however, it has kept things entertaining in a long-term sense. Regardless of whether competitors have won both or neither events, they are still in contention to win their division with two weeks remaining. read more

Paddy’s Picks February Invitational: Week 2 Preview

After a tricky, vaguely silly first week of the Paddy’s Picks February Invitational, it’s time to get down to business. This week, guest competitors in the experienced and casual divisions will be analyzing the G3 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack.

Originally, my plan was to give my competitors a turf race in the second week, which would provide variety and test their handicapping skills in a different way. But because of a fortunate turn of events in real life, I decided to change that plan. read more