The world championship of racing has finally arrived. For analysis on each of Friday’s Breeders’ Cup races as they’re released, click the corresponding link below. Each race has my full, horse-by-horse analysis along with at least one guest’s take on the race. This list will be updated as the weekend rolls along. Best of luck to everyone as they prepare for some of the hardest handicapping days of the calendar year.
Breeders’ Cup Analysis: Juvenile Fillies Turf w/ Guests Jill Rice and Gillian Russo
This is yet another stout field of turf runners, but in this case, the American contingent may have the edge. Like so many other Breeders’ Cup races, however, finding the winner is nearly impossible due to the field size and talent on display. It’s as potentially profitable as it is frustrating.
Jill Rice and Gil Russo will be joining me as guests after their mixed success on Travers Day. Jill has continued on as an elite copy editor on The Observer, while Gil has continued to sharpen her satire skills while also running The Observer’s website as Online Editor.
Breeders’ Cup Analysis: Juvenile Fillies w/ Guests Juliana Burke and Kristina Stevanovic
This year’s Juvenile Fillies race has the smallest field in this year’s Breeders’ Cup, but it doesn’t lack at all in terms of competition. Many of these fillies are better than their male counterparts in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, although this race still retains its entrants because very few trainers want to try against Jackie’s Warrior. This is a compact field representing the top dirt fillies from Kentucky, New York and California, which should make for a very interesting race.
Breeders’ Cup Analysis: Juvenile Turf w/ Guest Maggie McNamara
This year’s Juvenile Turf one of the most difficult races I’ve ever handicapped. In a 14-horse field, there are very few runners that I didn’t view as a legitimate contender. It’s a race that will inevitably fall through the cracks on such a big racing weekend, but those that remember it will be the ones that cash massive tickets.
My guest for this race is Maggie McNamara, the Assistant Sports and Health Editor for The Fordham Observer. She’s the only person I’ve ever allowed to co-write an article with me, and her prospects as a future editor on the newspaper continue to rise with time. However, her favorite movie is Cars 2, which will inevitably hold her back in all facets of life.
Breeders’ Cup Analysis: Juvenile Turf Sprint w/ Guests Esmé Bleecker-Adams and Grace Getman
On this momentous race weekend, the Breeders’ Cup will commence with a characteristically difficult juvenile turf race. 14 of the best juveniles from around the country will be competing for turf supremacy, and they’ll be moving through lightning quick fractions to do it. It’s an exciting and potentially profitable race.
My guests for this race are Grace Getman and Esmé Bleecker-Adams, both of which will be returning after providing guest analysis for Travers Day. Since then, Grace has become a force of nature as the Social Media Editor for The Fordham Observer, while Esmé has continued in her Observer role of “doing everything at all times.” Neither had the fortune to win on Travers Day, but neither are at all deterred by that unfortunate loss.
Preakness Day Analysis: Saturday, October 3, 2020
The heroes have been vanquished. Last month, Tiz the Law’s dominant three-year-old campaign came to a screeching halt in a Kentucky Derby defeat to Authentic that still seems surreal upon rewatching. Meanwhile, super filly Gamine struggled mightily in the Oaks as she succumbed to more demanding route conditions. Both runners are skipping the month of October in preparation for the Breeders’ Cup, leaving fans in a slightly more dull world on Preakness Day.
The Casual Bet: Kentucky Derby “Analysis”
Every year, the Kentucky Derby is an event where casual fans of horse racing congregate to watch the best three-year-olds in the country face off. As a result, the uninformed opinion is just as important as the informed one, because there are a lot of ways to come up with a winner. With one or two exceptions, the guests featured here have provided opinions that are baseless, silly, lighthearted, and most importantly, exactly what the Derby needs.
Joan Moquin
Once again, my mother has chosen to include her analysis among clueless counterparts. Her thoughts on the race are coherent, and don’t really belong here as a result, but will be included according to her wishes.
Handicapping Roundtable: Kentucky Derby Guest Analysis
The problem with guest analysis for a race like this year’s Kentucky Derby is that there’s really only one option. Tiz the Law has been unstoppable in 2020, and if I asked 20 experienced handicappers to provide analysis, 15 or more of them would begrudgingly chose the favorite. As a result, I decided to shift tactics.
I’ve found four very talented handicappers that will be breaking the Law, so to speak. All of them are incorporating the superhorse into their betting strategy, but all four will be attempting to beat him in one way or another. If anything, this article should demonstrate that the best handicappers are the ones who try to maximize value, even when there’s a 3-5 shot in play.
Paddy’s Picks Kentucky Derby Preview
1- Finnick the Fierce (SCRATCHED)
This colt has put in several valiant efforts against very strong competition, but he’s never come close to breaking through and joining the ranks of Tiz the Law and Authentic. He’s relatively slow here, but that’s not his biggest problem; Finnick the Fierce only has one eye, his left. Breaking from the rail, that means that he won’t be able to see the rest of the field to his outside at the start of the race. It’s a serious challenge against such a large field, and I seriously doubt he’ll manage to overcome the obstacle.
Nittany Buy-Ins: Kentucky Oaks Preview w/ Guest Handicapper Emma Moquin
Every year, on the eve of the Kentucky Derby, the country’s top three-year-old fillies make their best attempt to upstage the boys in the Kentucky Oaks. In many past renditions, the smaller, all-female event has paled in comparison to the larger, mostly male Derby. This year, however, may be a little different.
While Tiz the Law prepares to romp again tomorrow against a weak Derby field, this year’s Oaks field features two of the most compelling fillies in recent memory. Gamine, the inexperienced superstar, will face off against Swiss Skydiver, the battle hardened powerhouse, in a highly anticipated showdown that’s been building for months.