Saratoga Analysis: Friday, July 16, 2021

Adapt and overcome, right? My advice to bet light on the first day at Saratoga may have hurt some bettors, but it sure served me well. With a few exceptions, my handicapping yesterday was scattered and inconsistent, and I’m approaching the card today with even more caution. That being said, I think there’s a lot to learn from going into the second day.

The most obvious lesson I learned is that Kentucky shippers appear to be plainly superior to New York horses, at least in the early stages of this meet. In open company contests, not counting well-traveled turf star Golden Pal, five winners on Opening Day shipped from Kentucky. The more nuanced lesson concerns pace handicapping, and in all honesty, I’m not quite smart enough to crack it just yet. The fact of the matter, though, is that the predictable pace setups at Belmont are nothing like the ones at Saratoga. That one may require more thought on my end.  read more

Saratoga Analysis: Thursday, July 15, 2021

I think I missed the gleaming white fences most, the ones shrouded under ancient trees in a wide expanse of land that a suburbanite from Long Island could hardly fathom. I like walking around and watching people go about their business. The horses are all beautiful up here, as if touched by magic waters, but the crowd is always humorously mixed. The usual track people are here today, slightly less rowdy out of respect, but there are others too. Smartly dressed men in suits sit alongside budding families alongside ambitious college kids looking for a spot to put their beer pong table, though I feel that they may have trouble on Opening Day. Sam the Bugler just wished me luck and cryptically told me he was “working with tools of ignorance.” I love it all. It might not be a place to make money, but it’s a place to make a living, if that makes sense. read more

Paddy’s Picks 2021 Belmont Stakes Analysis

The Belmont Stakes is returning to 12 furlongs as God intended. The field for this year’s Test of Champions is wanting in size but not in talent, as several top runners from this year’s Triple Crown return to lock horns at a new and unfamiliar distance. When Sir Winston defeated Tacitus in the 2019 Belmont, I felt all-knowing, and when Tapwrit won in 2017, I felt hopelessly lost. Let’s see where I find myself this year handling this top-notch field:

Race 11

Belmont Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/2 Miles on the Dirt read more

Belmont Analysis: Saturday, June 5, 2021

Paddy’s Picks began nearly a year ago with analysis of the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. We now come full circle with another stacked card at my favorite track on the planet. I’ve been mulling over the Belmont Stakes for weeks now, but my attention is now diverted by a massive amount of talent at every division, including both Pegasus World Cup winners and more Chad Brown turf horses than one can possibly profit from. Days like these breathe life into every racing fan and inspire hope in an uncertain future for the sport. Let’s get cracking: read more

Belmont Analysis: Friday, June 4, 2021

This is the sort of Belmont card I can get used to. I’m not sure that NYRA should lean into its reputation for superior turf racing, but the fact of the matter is that there are few better places in the U.S. for such deep fields on the grass. This card features multiple graded stakes, some messy allowance and maiden races and enough handicapping strategies to tide over any handicapper — at least until the next Racing Form comes out. Without much more chatter, let’s take a look at the first: read more

Belmont Analysis: Thursday, June 3, 2021

I hear the rain on my bedroom window this morning and I hope it ceases some time soon. The temporary return of Paddy’s Picks at Belmont will likely be hampered by some moisture in the track this afternoon, but similar conditions didn’t hurt me last weekend.

On Saturday, May 29, my father and I went to Belmont for the second time since 2019 to watch Power Up Paynter. As 0.1% shareholders in the horse’s interests through the MyRaceHorse service, we signed up for a lottery that allowed us box seats for the day and paddock access for the sixth race. There was slight confusion about this lottery at first, as my mother expressed little interest in raising a dog when the “P.U.P. lottery” came up in family group chats. read more

Nittany Buy-Ins: Preakness Stakes Preview w/ Emma Moquin

First and foremost, I would like to apologize to anyone who had to read my Kentucky Derby analysis (special shoutout to Chris Reynolds), but the good thing about hitting rock bottom is that there is nowhere else to go but up. Here is my analysis of the Preakness where I hope to have some more luck today. Good luck to everyone and happy betting. 🙂

1- Ram

This horse is a little rough. It is not an encouraging sign that Irad Ortiz jumped off of this horse to ride the 5, Midnight Bourbon, and was replaced by an inferior jockey, Santana. I am also not overly fond of trainer D. Wayne Lukas. While this horse has done well in his last two races, his speed figures are terrible, with his highest being an 81, which will not cut it. Overall, I don’t think that this horse is going to win the race today. read more

Preakness Stakes Preview: May 15, 2021

I wonder how much money Medina Spirit has swindled out of people over the years with his little doping scheme. I bet he thought he was real clever about it; he sure pulled the wool over Bob Baffert’s eyes. He was dumbfounded — never saw it coming — and he’s been getting tricked by these horses for years. He was totally outfoxed when Charlatan and Gamine started shooting up behind his back at Oaklawn last year, and he wasn’t even around when Justify intimidated the California Racing Board into sweeping another failed test under the rug before the 2018 Derby. Poor Bob. Every time the guy leaves the state of California, his horses start abusing illegal medications. read more

New Wave: Novice Handicappers Bet the 2021 Kentucky Derby

My apprentice handicappers have to have their say as well, especially on racing’s biggest day. For the Kentucky Derby, four of my friends continue to hone their craft and tackle one of the toughest events of the year. 

It may serve as more of a warmup for them as a very active summer of gambling approaches, and what better way to get going than a 20-horse stampede?

Niko Konstantellis

Horses That Have a Shot: Mandaloun, Medina Spirit, Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon, Essential Quality, Rock Your World, Highly Motivated

Horses That Won’t Win: Like the King, Keepmeinmind, Sainthood, O Besos, Dynamic One, Hidden Stash, Bourbonic, Soup and Sandwich

My Pick

Rock Your World and Midnight Bourbon create a bad trip for Essential Quality, his first bad trip ever.  Essential Quality is the favorite for a reason and will get out in the front of the pack but will be beaten today.  Rock Your World got the nod from jockey Joel Rosario and he’s getting the nod from me today.   read more

The Casual Bet: 2021 Kentucky Derby “Analysis”

The Casual Bet is one of my favorite articles on big race days, and there’s no bigger day than the Kentucky Derby. Regulars and newcomers alike come together here to bet on instincts, hunches and an unparalleled amount of enthusiasm. On a day that especially appeals to fans and experts alike, their perspectives truly capture the essence of horse racing.