Paddy's Picks

The Charles and Diana of our generation have agreed to grace Paddy’s Picks with analysis for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. After nearly two years, Kristina has received a promotion from The Casual Bet to the Handicapping Roundtable, and she took full advantage by sending a single paragraph this morning. Niko’s dead end position within this publication remains unchanged, 

Race 10

Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt

Kristina’s Korner for Kool Kids

11- Dunbar Road

I know Letruska is the obvious favorite here, and it’s the right choice, but I wouldn’t put all my money on her. I think she’ll be challenged by the 11, Dunbar Road, the 3, Malathaat, and the 8, Shedaresthedevil. I don’t think Letruska is safe of getting run down later in the race by any of these horses here, and if you’re looking for an underdog pick, I think you go with Dunbar Road. The field is tough, sure, but I think the 15-1 odds this morning are fair (and worth your money). Dunbar Road can keep up as we’ve seen in recent starts, and I don’t think today will be any different. 11 Dunbar Road, Del Mar, California. Lol. read more

Race 10

Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt

1- Private Mission

Visually, this filly appears to be a promising up-and-comer for trainer Bob Baffert. In her first two graded stakes attempts in California, she powerfully took command at the top of the stretch and cruised home to easy victories, including one against fellow runner As Time Goes By. The problem is that she’s still a little outclassed and has not yet run this far in her short career. Seldom is a wait-and-see approach a winning strategy in the Breeders’ Cup. read more

From my uncle, Kevin Moquin: The Breeders’ Cup Mile epitomizes the Breeders Cup with entries coming from all over the world. With many of the horses in this field having the same racing style, this race could have the look of a stampede charge coming down the stretch. With a field of 14 horses, the best horse might not win. Racing luck and quick jockey decision making will probably be the difference in the outcome. European horses have had the advantage shipping over the last two years taking down some of America’s best turf races. read more

Race 9

Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 Mile on the Turf

1- Master of The Seas (Ire)

The three-year-old colt was no match in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes last time out, but that’s not such a big deal in this field. With the best European milers choosing not to ship, he becomes one of the more formidable foes from overseas. That being said, he seems to be trending in the wrong direction and hasn’t shown enough against older horses in two starts. The distance is right, but he may simply need more time.  read more

Lucas Ludgate is a man of precision, and doesn’t need to bandy words forever to make his selections for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Originally scheduled to have a partner for this race, he will now brave the rabid Paddy’s Picks readership without alone for the first time in his career as a contributor.

Race 8

Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt

Lucas Ludgate

Race has a ton of early speed horses (makes sense for a sprint). Best speed horse by far is the 2, Jackie’s Warrior. Other horses with a chance are the 9, Dr. Schivel (second best speed horse), and the 5, Aloha West, who best race in a sprint as a chaser while bringing back the same jockey. There’s some concern he performs better at 7f than 6f though. The 4, Matera Sky, feels like he’s better than his odds, but I don’t know how to read foreign sheets. read more

The Breeders’ Cup Sprint is no less predictable than the other dirt race preceding it on this championship card. Just as Gamine and Life Is Good project to be easy winners earlier in the day, this race only figures to be competitive if Jackie’s Warrior falls over. 

Race 8

Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt

1- Following Sea

1 ⅛ miles in the G1 Haskell was ambitious and ultimately ill-advised from a racing standpoint, but this colt is clearly a promising sprinter. One can excuse a convincing defeat to fellow runner Jackie’s Warrior in the G1 Allen Jerkens, as he was rounding back into form. His performance in the G2 Vosburgh was excellent, but he got the lead to himself that day and never looked back. This isn’t new for the colt, as he clearly feels more comfortable vying for the early lead. With Jackie’s Warrior back alongside him in the starting gate, he may have to settle for a trip off the pace once more, which could hurt his chances as it did back in August. read more

The Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile is one of my favorite races every year, and was actually one of my first big scores when Caleb’s Posse won the race in 2011. This year’s running doesn’t look nearly as profitable, however.

Besides an emphatic favorite, there are some very talented runners in the field, including a a few rising stars in the division. But to argue against Life Is Good seems pretty futile, and I don’t intend on doing so.

Race 6

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, One Mile on the Dirt read more

My two prize pupils team up here for some solid analysis of the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. I’ve been a fan of Emma for as long as I’ve known her, and ever since Niko drunkenly fell out of that bush and asked me for change all those years ago, he’s been a steadfast friend as well.

Race 7

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 ⅜ Miles on the Turf

1- Going to Vegas

Niko:  I don’t hate Going to Vegas because of the jockey trainer combo. My concern with this horse is that’s she’s only raced at this distance once. It was a year ago, but it was one of her slower races. Now, she’s gotten better since that point, but can she race this well at that distance? read more

Race 7

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 ⅜ Miles on the Turf

1- Going to Vegas

She’s now a G1 stakes winner and seems to be rounding into form at the right time, but I have serious doubts about the quality of the field she wired in the Rodeo Drive last time out. Her best chance here is to run this field off their feet, which actually doesn’t seem impossible but is also less likely than it was last time out. 

2- Pocket Square (GB)

Beyond the name recognition of Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz, issues abound for this runner. She seems a step slow against these and lacks significant class as an overqualified G3 winner last time out. Moreover, she rarely stretches out in distance and her one attempt at 1 5/16 miles in Europe last year was discouraging. There are better options. read more