1- Finnick the Fierce (SCRATCHED)
This colt has put in several valiant efforts against very strong competition, but he’s never come close to breaking through and joining the ranks of Tiz the Law and Authentic. He’s relatively slow here, but that’s not his biggest problem; Finnick the Fierce only has one eye, his left. Breaking from the rail, that means that he won’t be able to see the rest of the field to his outside at the start of the race. It’s a serious challenge against such a large field, and I seriously doubt he’ll manage to overcome the obstacle.
Edit: Finnick the Fierce has been scratched since this article was written.
2- Max Player
He’s run twice this summer and has performed well twice, finishing third in the G1 Belmont Stakes and G1 Travers Stakes. The obvious problem is that he was defeated convincingly on both occasions by Tiz the Law. In addition, he’s a deep closer, and in such a crowded field, the odds of finding trouble are more likely. New trainer Steve Asmussen is an upgrade over previous trainer Linda Rice, but the difference in connections at this level of racing is negligible. If everything goes his way, he could easily find himself picking up a minor prize again.
3- Enforceable
In the Blue Grass Stakes, this runner was my top selection at a price, and while I was clearly incorrect to undermine Art Collector and Swiss Skydiver that day, I don’t believe I picked a terrible runner. At 10-1, he was extremely wide around both turns but still managed to make up modest ground late to finish fourth. Like Max Player, he’s a deep closer that will have to work out a perfect trip to have any chance here. Unlike Max Player, however, I don’t believe we’ve seen his best effort, which gives him some upside at a price.
4- Storm the Court
Last November, Storm the Court shocked many bettors when he wired the field in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at 45-1. The victory was enough to earn him the 2019 Eclipse Award for Best Two-Year-Old Male. However, in 2020, the reigning champion hasn’t yet won a race, and has finished behind five of his fellow Kentucky Derby runners. He’ll be a long shot again… but I have to admit that I’m vaguely interested.
Trainer Peter Eurton tried him on the turf last time out, and said he intends to return him to the turf in the future. That essentially means that this race is one for the owners, so that they can say they had a horse in the Kentucky Derby. The horse is also winless this year and has never demonstrated the necessary speed to beat Tiz the Law and the other top runners. I get all of that, so don’t panic, but I’m getting a strange vibe too. He’s lost convincingly several times this year, but he hasn’t really found that perfect trip yet either. The last time he did find such a trip, he won at the Breeders’ Cup. No one thought he was capable of winning such a race then, much like they don’t believe he’s capable now. He improved significantly to take that race that he had no right to win, and we haven’t seen him race on the dirt since June, which could leave room for potential improvement and maturation. It’s extremely unlikely that history will repeat itself, but his running style suits the race perfectly and he’s been training phenomenally well.
5- Major Fed
Looking on the bright side, Major Fed did show a very impressive burst of speed in the G3 Indiana Derby, moving quickly into contention from last before flattening in the stretch. However, the winner also worked out a similar closing trip, which suggests that both runners were aided by the track and pace setup. I think he’s capable of a little more than he’s shown previously, but I don’t believe his best performance is nearly good enough to win here. Even if he did somehow improve enough to contend, he’s one of several closers in here that would need a lot of racing luck in the later stages of the race.
6- King Guillermo (SCRATCHED)
On Friday, this colt was scratched for health reasons. That’s fortunate from a handicapping perspective, because I was a little uncertain about his chances coming off a long layoff. The race is a little more predictable without him. From the perspective of a racing fan, however, I wish him a speedy recovery and hope to see him back on the track soon.
7- Money Moves
Well, this is ambitious. I don’t believe I’ve ever seen a horse entered in the Kentucky Derby without ever having competed in stakes competition before. In his first start off a long layoff, he bobbled out of the gate but finished second in a photo behind Prioritize in an allowance race at Saratoga. Prioritize is running in the G2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga today, a few hours before Money Moves will take this bafflingly steep hike in class. However, the 98 BSF he earned that day does make him somewhat competitive, and it’s very interesting that Pletcher could have sent Belmont Stakes runner-up Dr Post to Churchill but instead chose to keep him in New York. This is the colt he chose for the Derby. He’s given the typical, paraphrased response, something about the horse training well enough to take a shot in the dark. Personally, I think he needs more experience, but I’d keep an eye on him. He’s clearly a very promising runner with potential going forward.
8- South Bend
When horses face each other multiple times, it is common to see competitive but already defeated horses go off at long odds simply because they’ve lost previously. Max Player is the main victim of that phenomenon in this race, having lost to Tiz the Law two straight times, but South Bend is being affected as well. He did very little wrong in the G1 Travers last time out, making up ground despite a slow ace to finish fourth, two lengths behind Max Player. He earned a 97 BSF and proved that he can handle this demanding distance. The only reason he’s 50-1 is because he finished nine lengths behind Tiz the Law. There are several in here with shorter odds that will finish 20 lengths behind Tiz the Law, but they haven’t proved it yet, and that makes them seem more attractive. South Bend is one of many deep closers in this race, and with the right pace setup and racing luck, he could easily find his way to another strong showing.
9- Mr. Big News
After defeating a weak field in the Oaklawn Stakes back in April at 46-1 odds, this extremely deep closer didn’t race again until July. In the G1 Blue Grass Stakes against Art Collector, he didn’t seem to improve at all and finished sixth by 10 lengths. He may have needed the race, but he was clearly outrun by several of his fellow runners with no real excuse to speak of. He’ll have to improve to contend here.
10- Thousand Words
I think it would be a mistake to consider this runner a legitimate contender to win this race. The only performance of his career that qualifies him to win is his last start, in which he defeated fellow runner Honor A.P. in a wire-to-wire effort. He earned a 104 BSF that day, the second highest in the field behind Tiz the Law’s 109 in the G1 Travers. However, wiring a four-horse field through soft fractions on a speed favoring track is literally the very best situation that this runner can find. This time around, he’ll have to try to work out a stalking trip in a 16-horse field, which is coincidentally Tiz the Law’s running style as well. I believe he’ll be overbet on the basis of a dressed up past performance.
11- Necker Island
This colt has lost to fellow runner and 50-1 shot Attachment Rate on three separate occasions this year. Most recently, they faced off in the Ellis Park Derby last month, and while neither runner was good enough to defeat Art Collector, Necker Island was clearly third best of the trio. His speed figures haven’t improved at all this summer, and he hasn’t come close to reaching the winner’s circle this year. It’s difficult to see this going well for him.
12- Sole Volante
I’m excusing his poor performance in the Belmont Stakes, because it was foolish of trainer Patrick Biancone to bring him back 10 days after his previous start. Before that race, this colt was earning consistently solid figures that could compete in this race. From February to June, he improved very little, so it’s difficult to gauge whether he’ll do so from June to September. He’s yet another runner that will be doing his best running late, and that obviously comes with difficulties related to finding a decent trip. However, the distance is a question, and based on his workout tab and early career, I’m curious how much longer he remains on dirt before he’s switched back to the grass.
13- Attachment Rate
Attachment Rate is a classic example of delayed three-year-old improvement, as he’s improved in each of his four starts since April. His last performance was particularly impressive as he ran gamely in a runner-up finish behind Art Collector in the Ellis Park Derby despite traveling very wide around the first turn. He’s a balanced runner that possess tactical speed, and his 403 Tomlinson for this difficult distance is a standout statistic in this field. Dale Romans has brought him along very nicely this season, and at 50-1, I think he’s a very interesting option.
14- Winning Impression
At 50-1 on the morning line, I don’t consider this colt an interesting option. He’s woefully slow and would have to improve dramatically to enter consideration here.
15- Ny Traffic
I can’t help but respect the heart that this colt possesses. In 2020, he hasn’t finished outside the top three in five starts, but he hasn’t managed to win a stakes race either. Back in March, he nearly spring the upset at 26-1 but lost to Wells Bayou by nearly two lengths. After some time off, he returned in the G3 Matt Winn, where he once again fought very well but finished a length behind promising colt Maxfield. His Derby prep was the G1 Haskell, where it appeared as though Authentic had the race wrapped up. Even Mike Smith had the whip put away, and his confidence nearly cost him. Ny Traffic made a furious drive in the final yards and nearly knocked off the heavy favorite, but finished second again, this time by a nose.
He’s been knocking on the door for a while now, but he’s been improving throughout the season as well. He was once an outsider, but he’s quickly become a legitimate foe for the top runners in this race. His tactical running style will come in handy breaking from an outside post, and he appears fast enough to compete from the starting bell. For those in search of a plucky underdog, they need not look further than this charming runner.
16- Honor A.P.
This California ridgling has the appearance of a battle horse, and he runs like it too. Back in March, a more immature version of Honor A.P. became the first runner to truly challenge Authentic, who was still undefeated at that time. He lost that day, but after taking some time off, he returned in June for a rematch in the G1 Santa Anita Derby. This time, he prevailed over his foe, handing Authentic his first defeat in convincing fashion and earning a 102 BSF in the process. All of a sudden, he was the horse to beat in California, and he was challenged in his very next start. In a four-horse field, he made his best effort to run down lone front runner Thousand Words, but the situation was against him and he was forced to take the third defeat of his career despite an excellent performance. In this race, his running style is much more suitable, and he hasn’t run a step out of place over the course of his career. He’s one of the few solid, dependable contenders in the race, though it’s unclear if he’s fast enough to defeat the colt directly to his outside.
17- Tiz the Law
After a performance as dominant as his Travers victory, Tiz the Law essentially exceeds the boundaries of likelihood and ventures into inevitable territory. There isn’t a horse in this race that could have defeated him last month, and that’s not their fault, because I’m not sure there’s a horse racing in the country right now that could have taken him down. That being said, there are no sure things in racing, and every horse has a knock. For Tiz, it’s a combination of the post and his jockey. The luck of the draw will force him to find a trip on the far outside, and there’s only one occasion in his career when jockey Manny Franco has had to find his superstar a trip. Back when he was two years old, Tiz got stuck behind a wall of horses in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club. It was his only loss, and it wasn’t a result of his ability, but a result of a poor trip. In this race, he may be able to travel as wide as he wants, find traffic, and still manage to get across the line first, such is his speed and talent. However, if the trip is bad enough and someone else picks up their game, a monumental upset could be looming. I’d have an immense level of respect for anyone that went against him.
18- Authentic
Earlier this year, Authentic was very tough on several occasions, recording figures that were high at the time and winning convincingly. When he returned this summer, he was still running professionally but suddenly seemed a little less intimidating. In a rematch against Honor A.P., he gave way to his old foe, and in the G1 Haskell, he was nearly shocked by Ny Traffic after gearing down in the late stages. Some people have speculated that his Haskell performance is evidence that he can’t handle the distance, but I think it was more a result of complacency by jockey Mike Smith. The fact that he can’t handle the distance is still a distinct possibility, but I don’t believe that start was evidence of it. All of this speculation is pointless in the end, because there’s very little chance I would bet this horse on the far outside at 8-1. He’s not beating Tiz the Law.
Paddy’s Pick:
17- Tiz the Law
13- Attachment Rate
15- Ny Traffic
16- Honor A.P.
4- Storm the Court
At some point, I have to pick the best horse, and while it isn’t too much fun, Tiz the Law is simply too much for these. However, I did take some liberties underneath. Attachment Rate is a 50-1 shot that gave Art Collector a good run in his last start. He’ll have to improve again, but I think he’ll handle the distance well at a big price. Ny Traffic and Honor A.P. are both solid contenders, and while I don’t believe either runner is good enough to defeat the favorite, I do believe they’ll give good accounts of themselves. Honor A.P. is probably the second best horse on paper, but it would be foolish of me to have the two best horses finishing 1-2 in this sort of race. Storm the Court is more of a hunch play on my part. There’s very little evidence that he’ll perform at a high level, but he’s taken up too much real estate in this article for me to toss him completely.