The Preakness Stakes has been disappointing for me in recent years. This may sound ungrateful, and it is, but one must admit that it’s been a rough couple of years for the poor Triple Crown race.
While a winning ticket in the Kentucky Derby still eludes me, the race always promises elite competition and excitement. The Belmont Stakes is usually a wonderfully unique contest and fascinating handicapping exercise in my home state. More often than not, the Preakness doesn’t offer any of this.
Last year, I went to Pimlico with my friends to attend the race firsthand. I watched on in vague dismay as weak three-year-old National Treasure dusted underwhelming Derby winner Mage in a wire-to-wire score. It was by far the worst of the three Triple Crown races, continuing a trend that I’ve noticed for most of my life as a racing fan.
With more and more horses from the Derby skipping the middle jewel, Preakness fields are often filled with horses that would not have figured in the larger Derby field. Though I find myself torn between four or five horses in this year’s field at Pimlico, I can’t say that I’m particularly interested in any of them as long-term competitors.
My readers may take these complaints as a call for reform of the Triple Crown trail, but I do not believe that the solution to this problem is a change in schedule. I simply believe that more trainers and owners should be willing to bring their horses to Maryland. The fact that Mystik Dan has even a remote chance at getting another step closer to the Triple Crown is a clear sign that horsemen lack courage they may have had in the past. This should be a target race, not a bye week.
Anyway, let’s get into it. Maybe my attitude toward the race is promoting some sort of handicapping obstinacy on my part, but the Derby did very little to change my opinions of many of the competitors in this field. Let’s get into it.
Pimlico, Race 13
Preakness Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 3/16 Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 7:01 p.m. ET
1- Mugatu
From my Kentucky Derby analysis: “He hasn’t won a race since November, has never won on dirt and has spent most of his career in either maiden or optional claiming competition, earning one win in 12 starts. Not even close.”
2- Uncle Heavy
With rain in the forecast on Saturday at Pimlico, this colt’s muddy G3 Withers win in February makes him vaguely interesting. He’s still not a serious contender, mind you, as he earned a meager 84 BSF in that race. It also felt like the victory fell in his lap after a late pace collapse. I can forgive his showing in the G2 Wood Memorial last time out, when he laid an egg after traveling very wide around both turns off a short layoff. Still, he has to show some serious improvement on his previous best to have a chance here.
3- Catching Freedom
It’s very hard to win from the back of the pack in the Kentucky Derby, but he really gave it his all to rally for fourth with a 97 BSF. On the average day, it’s arguable that he’s a better horse than Mystik Dan, who benefitted from a dream trip on the rail to beat him last time out. He’s a very solid horse with a strong chance here, though it’s worth noting that Pimlico doesn’t always reward closers and he’s been on a lot of friendly tracks in his career.
4- Muth (SCRATCHED)
Last year, I picked First Mission to win this race before he withdrew. I get the sense that the Maryland Jockey Club is messing with me.
5- Mystik Dan
Hey there, pal. It’s a little unfair to say that I don’t respect this horse yet. He’s definitely the likeliest winner here, especially if the rain takes its toll on the Pimlico track. It’s still frustrating that he’s so erratic, however. His win in the G3 Southwest was wildly dressed up, aided by the wet track and a fortunate trip up the rail. His win in the Derby was similarly aided by a rail trip while most of his foes had to travel wide. Beyond those two wins, there are plenty of red flags that should rule him out as a favorite in this race. At his best though, he seems to have a great chance.
6- Seize the Grey
I was standing next to the great turf writer, Bob Ehalt, in the winner’s circle at Saratoga when this colt broke his maiden last summer. Cool experience. Anyway, trainer D. Wayne Lukas seemed to reevaluate things when he failed to show up in the G1 Blue Grass. Cutting him back in distance for the G2 Pat Day Mile was obviously the right decision, as he managed to earn a nice win around one turn against a softer field. He’s stepping back into deep waters here and stretching out even further. Maybe Lukas has noticed some improvement in the morning, but the horse has a lot to prove.
7- Just Steel
He’s one of two horses I picked to win the Kentucky Derby, and the other one got a hell of a lot closer to pulling it off. Oh well. In my defense, it wasn’t my plan at all for this colt to get funneled into a speed duel with Track Phantom and Fierceness in that race, which killed his winning chances immediately. It’s refreshing to see that Lukas has turned to Joel Rosario to take over in the saddle for this one. Despite the disaster last time out and a few similarly disappointing starts earlier this year, I still see his showing in the G1 Arkansas Derby as evidence that he fits at this level. He beat Mystik Dan that day by 4 ¼ lengths. I may not be as enthusiastic in my support of him this time around, but a nominal win bet still feels appropriate.
8- Tuscan Gold
Chad Brown and Tyler Gaffalione nearly connected to win the Derby with Sierra Leone, but this is a very different horse. That’s not a knock — he’s similarly talented but simply has less experience under his belt. After a nice maiden win at Gulfstream in January, he improved again to finish third in the G2 Louisiana Derby with a 95 BSF. He was clearly a step behind Catching Freedom in the stretch that day, but he’s been prepping for this start for nearly two months and could take another step forward.
9- Imagination
His past performances paint him in a strange light, as he seems more comfortable running in company at the wire. Though he’s never finished outside place position in six career starts, he’s won or lost four of those races in photo finishes. His performance in the G1 Santa Anita Derby last time out was especially puzzling, as he came up just short to an inferior opponent and regressed to earn an 89 BSF. None of these things necessarily disqualify him as a winning candidate here, but he seems like a frustrating one to bet.
Order: 7 9 8 5
Damn. I didn’t expect to be here again, but with my top pick scratched and some grudges, I’m now largely uninterested in this field. Real Steel didn’t deliver at all last time out, but I have to admit that I appreciate the adjustments that the connections have made in preparation for this start. If he fits in this field, then the price is well worth a venture, particularly in exotics. Leave it to me to serve as the fool who bets him to win. With Muth out of the race, Bob Baffert’s hopes now lie in Imagination, which is basically a pun. I think he’s a puzzler with a chance. He always seems to be in the mix, and with some rest between starts, he may have an advantage over other runners here.
I can say the same of Tuscan Gold, who has been pointed to this race very deliberately by trainer Chad Brown. I’m concerned with the lack of experience and don’t seem him making the necessary improvement, but he has the right running style for this race. That leaves us with Mystik Dan, who I have to admit is a deserving favorite after his Derby win. The rain in Baltimore will only help him. That being said, these favorable factors do not justify his short price considering his erratic form in the not-so-distant past. The Derby also takes a toll on horses and there was some hesitance about racing him on the short turnaround. I’d rather go against him all the way.