It all came down to this, and then nothing happened. To spoil the result somewhat while also providing an effective lead paragraph, none of the guest competitors in the February Invitational picked the winner of the Saudi Cup. The standings remain unchanged, leaving a tie for me to resolve in the experienced division.
After three weeks of chalk in races stateside, this international event was a profound challenge for my contestants. Some guests got close by picking Country Grammer or Cafe Pharoah, the second- and third-place finishers. But no one, myself included, came close to finding Panthalassa, a Japanese front runner switching from turf to dirt. That’s how it goes.
The underwhelming results of the inaugural Paddy’s Picks Invitational, exacerbated by short prices and a challenging final leg, have not made the competition any less entertaining to host or promote. There are very distinct futures where I hold similar contests, perhaps with minor changes, featuring some or all of these wonderful competitors, along with many new faces. For now though, it’s time to award prizes.
As a reminder, the winners in the casual and experienced divisions after one month will receive a personally made drawing of a horse and a kooky horse-themed pen.
In the casual division, having earned $10.20 in total winnings, Courtney Brogle is the undisputed winner after finding the winners of the G3 Withers and G3 Fair Grounds Stakes. In the experienced division there’s a tie, as Rebecca Patterson and Kristina Stevanovic both earned $9.60. Though I could come up with a humorous tiebreaker, it’s more likely that both of these fierce competitors will receive the prizes in question. What’s a little more work for me, after all?
To check out the last stands of each competitor in the February Invitational, check out the Saudi Cup results below:
King Abdulaziz, Race 8
Saudi Cup (G1) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 12:35 p.m. EST, Saturday, Feb. 25
The Field:
1- Cafe Pharoah (J. Moreira, N. Hori)
2- Country Grammer (L. Dettori, B. Baffert)
3- Crown Pride (Jpn) (D. Lane, K. Shintani)
4- Emblem Road (A. Moreno, M. Almulawah)
5- Geoglyph (Jpn) (C. Lemaire, T. Kimura)
6- Jun Light Bolt (Jpn) (R. Moore, Y. Tomomichi)
7- Panthalassa (Jpn) (Y. Yoshida, Y. Yahagi)
8- Remorse (IRE) (T. O’Shea, B. Seemar)
9- Scotland Yard (V. Gutierrez, M. Almulawah)
10- Taiba (M. Smith, B. Baffert)
11- Vin de Garde (Jpn) (M. Barzalona, H. Fujiwara)
12- Lagertha Rhyme (IRE) (R. Ferreira, N. Almandeel)
13- Sunset Flash (IRE) (A. Alsarhani, N. Almandeel)
Race:
Order of Finish:
1- Panthalassa (15-1)
2- Country Grammer (7-2)
3- Cafe Pharoah (14-1)
4- Geoglyph (36-1)
5- Crown Pride (12-1)
6- Emblem Road (10-1)
7- Jun Light Bolt (9-2)
8- Taiba (8-5)
9- Remorse (53-1)
10- Lagertha Rhyme (68-1)
11- Vin de Garde (37-1)
12- Sunset Flash (67-1)
13- Scotland Yard (15-1)
Experienced Division
Emma Moquin
A misstep in the G3 Fair Grounds Stakes last week relegated Emma to third place in the experienced division, and as the horses loaded into the gate for the Saudi Cup, she still hadn’t picked a horse despite numerous texts and a phone call from her concerned mother.
Emma’s Pick: 2- Country Grammer
(Seconds before the race went off) “Count try grammar.”
Verdict: In my heart of hearts, I genuinely believe that Emma’s halfhearted support of Country Grammer cost him the race. Even if the talented Baffert trainee did win, she still would not have won the Invitational (as we’ll see later on), but the haphazard nature of her handicapping certainly doomed him to another runner-up finish in Saudi Arabia.
Rebecca Patterson
Going into the final race of the Invitational with a lead in the experienced division, one can only assume that Rebecca would give the Saudi Cup her undivided attention as a drawing of a horse hung in the balance. But everyone knows what happens when you assume…
Rebecca’s Pick: 6- Jun Light Bolt
“Hiii I’m gonna pick Jun Light Bolt because of the colors.”
Verdict: Like Emma, Rebecca’s complete lack of compelling reasoning for her Saudi Cup pick cost another talented horse his victory. Jun Light Bolt happened to be a very reasonable pick, but days of procrastination on Rebecca’s part kept her pick out of the winner’s circle. Unlike Emma, however, Rebecca was playing with a lead and hung on to it in a tie we’ll address later.
George McKnight
For all of the hype surrounding this emphatically successful guest handicapper, George entered the fourth week of the Invitational in last place. He needed to be the lone victor in the Saudi Cup to have any chance of taking home a kooky horse pen.
George’s Pick: 4- Emblem Road
“I’ll be daring here and go with Emblem Road. Very experienced horse, as he won last year’s Saudi Cup. As much as we vilify Bob Baffert here at Paddy’s Picks, I was initially tempted to take Taiba or Country Grammer but was enamored with Emblem Road’s performance out east. He’s taken down CG before, and it’ll happen again. Quote me on that.”
Verdict:
“Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.”
Kristina Stevanovic
Kristina’s lead in the February Invitational going into Week 4 seemed more circumstantial than anything else, but she managed to avoid distractions for the most part and picked two winning favorites to enter a tie for first. She seemed to struggle in her Saudi Cup analysis and ultimately waited until Saturday morning to make her selection.
Kristina’s Pick: 2- Country Grammer
“Shit. If it’s still not too late, I’m going with Country Grammer. Keeping it short and simple.”
Verdict: Panthalassa wasn’t on anyone’s radar, but Kristina got as close as she could by picking the runner-up. More importantly though, everyone’s else’s failure to pick the upset winner means that she keeps her tie for the lead after four weeks. Because I did not include a tiebreaker procedure for this inaugural Invitational, I’m inclined to give both Kristina and Rebecca the victory, but this is subject to change if I can find a more entertaining alternative in the next day or so. Niko Konstantellis suggested a cage match to the death to determine the winner, but I don’t think the events he hosts on his private island hold up under American law.
Niko Konstantellis
After finally breaking through with a win in the G3 Fair Grounds Stakes, Niko pulled within striking distance to pull off an upset Invitational victory in the Saudi Cup. If he could find the right long shot to win the event, he had the potential to take the whole thing.
Niko’s Pick: 9- Scotland Yard
“I’m between Scotland Yard and Jun Light Bolt. Can I split my $2?”
Verdict: I must admit that I had some part in convincing Niko to pick Scotland Yard, who took a bad step in the Saudi Cup and faded to dead last. That being said, Jun Light Bolt would not have earned him a win either, relegating him to fifth place in his Invitational debut. It’s harsh to say that such a result was expected, but it’s even harsher to say that he exceeded what many thought he was capable of.
Lucas Ludgate
With a lead going into the third week of the Invitational, it’s impossible to avoid the fact that Lucas’ effort dropped off precipitously in the competition’s second half. His Saudi Cup pick, which could have propelled him into first, came several minutes before the event began.
Lucas’ Pick: 1- Cafe Pharoah
“Shit. Cafe Pharoah’s dad is American Pharoah. That’s enough for me. These sheets are in Swahili.”
Verdict: Trailing by a dollar, Lucas struggled mightily to read the Daily Racing Form, which featured a number of international horses with sparse statistics. His claims that the Form was completely unreadable are patently false, as several of his competitors gained a solid understanding of things. He is correct, however, that the winner would have been difficult to find under the circumstances. Cafe Pharoah’s third-place finish denied the Houston Habbercock an Invitational victory.
Casual Division
Chris Murray
Analyzing the Saudi Cup from the Netherlands, Chris was unable to bet on the race himself. He is efforts to take the Invitational were doomed from the very beginning.
Chris’ Pick: 6- Jun Light Bolt
“It was always Jun Light Bolt. Taiba’s acting coltish, his head isn’t in the game. Country Grammer hasn’t raced with a field of this size. Cafe Pharoah hasn’t raced at this length in over a year. Panthalassa is a turf horse. Emblem Road is slightly terrifying and the Americans are going to be strong favorites, but Jun Light Bolt is on a tear right now. Something is clearly cooking and I predict he’s going to build on his success in the Champions Cup.
If I could add a little footnote: I’m intimidated by the fact that this race has existed for three years and a horse owned by a Saudi prince has won the last two while the first horse who won (non-Saudi owned) is under investigation. Doesn’t make me feel too good about the Japanese stallion but I’m sticking to my guns.”
Verdict: To his credit, Chris was the only guest handicapper to mention Panthalassa by name. He quickly overlooked the horse, however, in favor of a slightly more conservative take while considering a contradictory historical view. He was right to go against the Saudi Cup’s recent trends, which I followed to oblivion in my own analysis, but did not abandon enough handicapping tenets to find the right long shot.
Maddie Sandholm
Shockingly, the Saudi Cup featured three runners that Maddie has actually heard of before. To my detriment, however, one of them was attached to a memory in which I don’t appear as talented as I often present myself. It’s bad, trust me. I’ll provide further context in a moment. Oh, and as an aside, Maddie was in second place going into this race and could have won the Invitational easily with another victory. That wasn’t her focus.
Maddie’s Pick: 1- Cafe Pharoah
“‘So I’m doing a horse racing website now. Maybe you know already, beats me. Anyway, I’m writing about a Japanese runner in the Kentucky Derby this year, and I obviously can’t get access to a photo, so I have to try my best with a graphic.
Would you say this was done by a 5 year old or a 10 year old?
[illustration of Cafe Pharoah redacted]
Because a ten-year-old’s graphic I can publish.’
– Patrick Moquin Jr., June 23, 2020
Above is a brief excerpt of the first conversation Patrick and I had about horses, before the first Paddy’s Picks was published. Thanks to the archives of The Observer’s Slack, I was able to recover the messages for y’all today. I think a full circle moment with Cafe Pharoah is the best way to end the first Paddy Pick’s February Invitational. Also, I think the black on yellow will really stick out on the track.”
Verdict: So, Maddie obviously didn’t win the Saudi Cup, though Cafe Pharoah did finish third at 14-1 odds. Fortunately for her, that wasn’t the game she was playing.
Redacting the image herself was kind, but it doesn’t change the fact that she’s daring me. In 2020, Cafe Pharoah qualified for the Kentucky Derby and I was going to write a feature article about him that would have included an illustration. Because she’s an incredibly talented artist, I asked Maddie for input, and she didn’t know me as well at the time and very, very kindly told me that it was a horrendous evocation of a horse. Cafe Pharoah didn’t end up going to Kentucky, so the article was never published and, thankfully, my dreadful drawing of him never made it onto the website. Until now.
To the winners of the February Invitational, I promise from the bottom of my heart that my horse drawing prizes will look marginally better than this. I’ve been working on it, and will never give a horse such cringeworthy bangs ever again.
Courtney Brogle
As the leader in both divisions going into the Saudi Cup, Courtney simply had to hang on and therefore employed a safer method than many of her competitors. It was a wise thought process, one that can only come to someone advanced in years. She may not get around so well anymore, but it’s impossible to deny this competitor’s shrewd tactics.
Courtney’s Pick: 10- Taiba
“While this week’s race has the added component of international players, I’m sticking with my American roots and rooting for Taiba. A three-time Grade I winner with an impressive form demonstrated over seven furlongs, Taiba’s projected tactical speed in what is anticipated to be a fast-paced race should serve him well. He’s fresh from a December victory at Santa Anita Park and strengthening with each training/race. In fact, his crucial Santa Anita Park win, according to a report from Forbes, was achieved with little urging from jockey Mike Smith; his current power and clear potential are impressive to say the least.
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert — who interestingly has not yet won a Saudi Cup — even reported to Horse Racing Nation that Taiba has “a speed horse inside of him” and feels that he thrives when running among competitors that “get him in the race.”
He certainly is up against stiff competition, including Dubai World Cup Champion Country Grammer and last year’s winner Emblem Road, but his trainers also shared with Horse Race Nation that Taiba did well on the journey to Saudi Arabia and has been training and maturing well for a sophomore horse. And regardless of how he runs this weekend, he definitely has a big career ahead of him.”
Verdict: Though Country Grammer also lost, Courtney certainly picked the wrong Baffert trainee, as Taiba was never really in contention despite entering the race as the favorite. Fortunately, everyone losing was just as good for Courtney as a win, and because no one managed to find Panthalassa, her $10.20 in total winnings were enough to earn her an equine illustration and kooky horse pen. In a humorous aside, she was also the only competitor in either division to exceed $10 in four weekends of betting.
Shaily Jani
Despite trailing after three weeks, Shaily could have passed all of her competitors with a long shot win in the Saudi Cup. With this in mind, her strategy in the final week was somewhat puzzling.
Shaily’s Pick: 2- Country Grammer
“USA! USA! USA! I feel this one in my bones. My AMERICAN bones!!!! USA!”
Verdict: First of all, at 7-2 odds, Country Grammer could have won and still wouldn’t have given Shaily an Invitational victory. He would have paid $9, less than Courtney and Maddie’s total winnings, and Emily Ellis would have also won and stayed ahead of her. To make matters even worse, however, Shaily told me after the race that she had a dream in which she was instructed to follow the number 7. She ignored this dream because she found it unreasonable. Going against Panthalassa under these circumstances feels especially brutal.
Gabby Bermudez
Gabby’s vibe-based selections have repeatedly led her astray in the month of February, and instead of adapting a more sensible approach, she had instead shifted between equally nonsensical methods. Observe.
Gabby’s Pick: 11- Vin de Garde
“I don’t know, Pat. I feel kinda scared using divination. It’s failed me. So now I am going back to the OG psychic tests. Closing my eyes and choosing whatever horse my finger lands on. Vin de Garde!”
Verdict: Gabby and I agree that her divination is scary at this point, as it hasn’t come close to working in three tries. Closing her eyes, however, proved to be just as useless. That being said, while many of her competitors have used more sophisticated handicapping theory over the course of this Invitational, no one managed to earn more than $10.20.
Emily Ellis
For four weeks, Emily was along for the ride in the Invitational, failing to impress while avoiding embarrassment for the most part. Going into the final week, she had a chance to win, but the pressure didn’t seem to affect her at all.
Emily’s Pick: 2- Country Grammer
“I want Country Grammer. Cause I saw a TikTok today about how we as a society underappreciate Andy Grammer.”
Verdict: If Country Grammer had closed a little faster, we would be addressing Ms. Ellis as the inaugural Paddy’s Picks Invitational winner, a horse racing savant with indisputable equine knowhow. Instead, his runner-up finish keeps her in a three-way tie for third place, a respectable showing if one doesn’t realize the tie was for $4.
Eddie Harrison
Eddie has no respect for my narrative arcs. Throughout the Invitational, I was depicting him as a learner, someone who was slowly putting the pieces together and would only get stronger as the competition continued. But in a tragic, unsatisfying twist, the Saudi Cup came and went without his irreverent analysis.
Eddie’s Pick: no selection
“Had to take it easy on my competition.”
Verdict: Eddie’s post-race commentary, which appears nonchalant on the surface, is clearly masking a deeper insecurity. This is a man who’s afraid of his own success, someone who doesn’t believe he deserves an original equine drawing by Patrick Moquin and a corresponding kooky horse pen. He knew Panthalassa would win the Saudi Cup — of course he did. In the end, it was a bout between Eddie and his own Paddy’s Picks demons. The demons forgot to set his alarm.
Final Standings
Experienced Division
1- Rebecca Patterson (2 wins) $9.60
1- Kristina Stevanovic (2 wins) $9.60
3- Emma Moquin (2 wins) $8.60
3- Lucas Ludgate (2 wins) $8.60
5- Niko Konstantellis (1 win) $5.60
6- George McKnight (1 win) $4.00
Winners: Rebecca Patterson and Kristina Stevanovic
Casual Division
1- Courtney Brogle (2 wins) $10.20
2- Maddie Sandholm (2 wins) $8.60
3- Chris Murray (1 win) $4.00
3- Emily Ellis (1 win) $4.00
3- Eddie Harrison (1 win) $4.00
6- Gabby Bermudez (0 wins) $0.00
6- Shaily Jani (0 wins) $0.00
Winner: Courtney Brogle