Paddy’s Picks February Invitational: Week 3 Recap

My attempts to escape the chalk may have failed, but the Fair Grounds Stakes was nevertheless a worthwhile stop in the Paddy’s Picks February Invitational. A victory for reputable turf runner Two Emmys at 9-5 odds shook up both divisions in the competition while keeping things extremely close going into the final week.

Between the scratch of deep closer Corelli and a hotly contested debate among guests between a pair of rival horses, there was plenty to appreciate about this week in New Orleans and its impact on the Invitational. Let’s take a closer look:

Fair Grounds, Race 11

Fair Grounds Stakes (G3) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt

Post Time: 6:07 p.m. EST, Saturday, Feb. 18

The Field:

1- Tiz the Bomb (B. Hernandez Jr., K. McPeek)

2- Two Emmys (J. Graham, H. Robertson)

3- Cavalry Charge (D. Cohen, D. Stewart)

4- Gentle Soul (R. Gutierrez, W.B. Calhoun)

5- English Tavern (D. Parker, M. Lovell)

6- Pixelate (L. Saez, M. Stidham)

7- Corelli (F. Geroux, J. Thomas) (SCR)

8- Bay Street Money (T. Gaffalione, M. Maker)

Race:

https://youtu.be/2vNSpaQvCs0

Order of Finish:

1- Two Emmys (9-5)

2- Gentle Soul (7-2)

3- English Tavern (20-1)

4- Bay Street Money (5-1)

5- Pixelate (9-2)

6- Tiz the Bomb (7-2)

7- Cavalry Charge (6-1)

SCR- Corelli

Experienced Division

Emma Moquin

Emma’s Pick: 4- Gentle Soul

“I like his running style, his speed figures … his jockey is consistent on him.”

Verdict: Emma picked a rising star in the turf division in a race that most handicappers narrowed down to a two-horse event. Two Emmys got his revenge, however, running away from Gentle Soul and the rest of the field to win by daylight. With the loss, she falls to a tie for third but is only trailing by a dollar overall. She’s in sharp form going into the final week.

Rebecca Patterson

Rebecca’s Pick: 2- Two Emmys

“I feel as if I am learning each week.”

Verdict: Once a wild card in the experienced division, Rebecca’s now tied for first with one week to go in the Invitational. Granted, Two Emmys was a safe pick, but it’s hard to criticize a runaway win under any circumstance. Rebecca can guarantee at least a shared victory with another victory next week.

George McKnight

George’s Pick: 4- Gentle Soul

“I liked the veterans’ matchup between Gentle Soul and Two Emmys, but I think the younger horse showed sterner stuff when he upset Two Emmys on Jan. 21 at Fair Grounds.”

Verdict: Going into the Invitational with a 78% strike rate, George now finds himself alone in last place with one week remaining in the contest. Gentle Soul was a solid pick, and if exactas were permitted, he likely would’ve made money on this race. He failed to pick the winner, however, and now needs to be the lone moneymaker next week to have any shot at the title.

Kristina Stevanovic

Kristina’s Pick: 2- Two Emmys

“This seems like an experienced field but overall I like that Two Emmys has run against the other horses, has a few wins under his belt (saddle), and has some impressive Beyers … :p”

Verdict: It’s been a quiet climb, but Jellybean-a is now tied for first in the experienced division. Two Emmys was easily the class of the field and ran like it, getting a win back against Gentle Soul without letting any other closer get a chance. Kristina claims to struggle with turf races, but I’m not sure she can feasibly argue that for much longer. An undetermined race next week could clinch her Invitational victory.

Niko Konstantellis

Niko’s Pick: 2- Two Emmys (sub. for 7- Corelli)

“That was my thinking. I was deciding between him and Gentle Soul. Which I don’t love but I felt better with Two Emmys.”

Verdict: Some might call it a tactician’s brilliant adjustment, while others might call it a trust fund baby’s lucky switch. In any case, Niko is finally on the board after Corelli was removed from the Fair Grounds, leading him to choose Two Emmys as a last-second replacement. Based on the way the race played out, Corelli would have had absolutely no chance to catch the front runner, but he didn’t have to and Niko got the opportunity to change his mind. Technically, he remains in the running for the Invitational win with one week left.

Lucas Ludgate

Lucas’ Pick: no selection

“Forgot to send in my pick. F***. Would’ve been Gentle Soul but I assume it’s voided. Did research and everything.”

Verdict: Some analysts might consider Lucas’ forgetfulness a sign of a failing franchise, but even if he did get the pick in, he would have had to sit and watch as Gentle Soul picked up the pieces without ever challenging for a win. Between the voided pick and its ultimate failure, it’s hard to argue that Lucas is entering his final week of the Invitational in the best form. He only trails by a dollar, however, giving him a winning chance if he isn’t completely rattled.

Casual Division

Chris Murray

Chris’ Pick: 4- Gentle Soul

“Horses are stupid. I should’ve never conceded that they exist.”

Verdict: In reality, horses display a wide variety of intelligence levels, and Chris is simply too frustrated to appreciate the equine world for what it is. Had he won this race, as he did in several actual bets previously on Saturday’s Fair Grounds card, Chris could have pulled into second place with a real chance of winning the Invitational. His system came up just short, however, as Gentle Soul proved to be hopeless in a rematch against Two Emmys. He needs a good deal of luck in Week 4 to win it all.

Maddie Sandholm

Maddie’s Pick: 4- Gentle Soul (sub. for 7- Corelli)

“You’re so dramatic. Do I need to give you another explanation? Or just the horse name? Because I’m gonna go with Gentle Soul and my explanation would be that it was my second pick.”

Verdict: So, I’d like to take this opportunity to provide some context to my dear readers, who I love and expect to side with me on this. I first learned of Corelli’s scratch at 4:00 Saturday, two hours before the race. Racked with guilt at the thought of some competitors not getting the chance to pick a replacement, I reached out to affected guests with a sense of urgency. It was my fault that they didn’t know sooner, after all. Niko Konstantellis, another Corelli supporter, responded to my text in minutes and landed on Two Emmys. One down, one to go. 

Worrying that Maddie would be slower to get back, I reached out to Emily Ellis, Maddie’s roommate and fellow competitor, asking if she could relay a message. Emily, helpful as always, told me that Maddie was in the next room making a collage. She then told me that my message was not important enough to justify interrupting her and that I was dramatic for suggesting otherwise. Maddie echoed that latter sentiment in her backup analysis. If I can be honest, dear reader, this flustered me somewhat, and I must admit that my pride got the better of me when I muted Emily for the rest of the day. I’ll show her dramatic, you know?

Anyway, after applying some more pressure, Maddie was eventually informed of her original pick’s withdrawal. Her second choice lost anyway. I could mention that she’s in extremely sharp color-picking form and still has a very legitimate chance to win the entire Invitational with a good selection next week. I could even throw out a compliment about her art gallery at Fordham, which just went up Saturday and genuinely looks wonderful. But I’ve already dedicated so many words to the whole context thing, so we have to move on.

Courtney Brogle

Courtney’s Pick: 2- Two Emmys

“Additionally, his trainer and co-owner Hugh Robertson was reported in DRF as having recently said Two Emmys hasn’t ‘ever really relaxed,’ and while contextually he was referring to some of his previous races, I deeply resonate with this frame of mind.”

Verdict: Courtney Brogle is in first place in the inaugural Paddy’s Picks Invitational. Not in the casual division. Not among her close friends. In the entire Invitational field, with $10.20 to her name. Her extensive, vibe-based research has led to two straight victories, as Two Emmys gave a decidedly relaxed performance while dominating the Fair Grounds Saturday. If she picks the winning horse in Week 4’s race, she is guaranteed to take the casual division, though there are others chasing close behind.

Shaily Jani

Shaily’s Pick: 1- Tiz the Bomb

“I like the name. I really like the name.”

Verdict: If any competitor can be considered unlucky in the February Invitational, it must be Shooboobly (as she’s known in professional circles). Not only is she picking competitive horses, but she’s also picking against the grain for the most part, a combination which could have given her a substantial lead. Instead, she remains winless and needs a miracle next week to have any chance of taking the Invitational. I bet she’ll be really sad on her birthday Monday that she isn’t winning on this pony blog.

Gabby Bermudez

Gabby’s Pick: 3- Cavalry Charge

“No explanation needed because once again divination led me to this decision.”

Verdict: No verdict needed because divination hasn’t done s*** for Gabby in three weeks. Will she embrace the coldhearted statistics in Week 4?

Emily Ellis

Emily’s Pick: 5- English Tavern

“Makes me think of fireplaces and it’s winter so that feels right.”

Verdict: Emily called me dramatic Saturday and irreparably hurt my feelings. But we’ve already chatted about that and don’t need to address the pain further. Not only was English Tavern a unique, wholesome pick this week, but it was also an interesting one, as the gelding outran his 20-1 odds to finish third. Unfortunately, that means little more than a small pride boost to Emily, who needs a big win in Week 4 to deliver on the lofty promises she made at the beginning of the month.

Eddie Harrison

Eddie’s Pick: 3- Cavalry Charge

“Some of you may know that my third favorite racing sport is stock car racing. Considering the big race this weekend, I feel like this horse will be channelling another #3 out there.”

Verdict: Cavalry Charge ran really poorly, but Eddie has gradually been picking up knowledge through this February Invitational. His chances of winning the event are slim, but the degenerate knowhow he’s gained thus far is already invaluable. Oh, and Ricky Stenhouse is a boring Daytona 500 winner.

Standings After Week 3

Experienced Division

1- Rebecca Patterson (2 wins) $9.60

1- Kristina Stevanovic (2 wins) $9.60

3- Emma Moquin (2 wins) $8.60

3- Lucas Ludgate (2 wins) $8.60

5- Niko Konstantellis (1 win) $5.60

6- George McKnight (1 win) $4.00

Casual Division

1- Courtney Brogle (2 wins) $10.20

2- Maddie Sandholm (2 wins) $8.60

3- Chris Murray (1 win) $4.00

3- Emily Ellis (1 win) $4.00

3- Eddie Harrison (1 win) $4.00

6- Gabby Bermudez (0 wins) $0.00

6- Shaily Jani (0 wins) $0.00