The Paddy’s Picks February Invitational continues on to its third week, where competitors will evaluate the G3 Fair Grounds Stakes at the Fair Grounds Race Course outside New Orleans.
As I write this, it’s approximately noon on the beautiful Penn State campus, where I’m visiting my sister and guest competitor Emma Moquin for the weekend. I’m exhausted, so if my writing for this preview doesn’t reflect my usual zest for life and the people in it, I offer that as an excuse.
In the first two weeks of this Invitational competition, guests analyzed the G3 Robert B. Lewis and G3 Withers Stakes, two prep races for the Kentucky Derby which yielded predictable winners at short prices. Regardless of the result this week, the Fair Grounds is almost certain to provide more value.
As a turf race for older horses, the event is naturally more difficult to handicap, but in this specific instance, the Fair Grounds has drawn a field of eight evenly matched runners. The difference between the favorite and longest shot is negligible, a stark contrast to races the competitors have previously analyzed.
Not only is this week’s featured race a closely contested one, but it accompanies a situation in the Invitational where every guest is separated by less than $9 in total winnings.
Standings After Week 2
Experienced Division
1- Emma Moquin (2 wins) $8.60
1- Lucas Ludgate (2 wins) $8.60
3- Rebecca Patterson (1 win) $4.00
3- George McKnight (1 win) $4.00
3- Kristina Stevanovic (1 win) $4.00
6- Niko Konstantellis (0 wins) $0.00
Casual Division
1- Maddie Sandholm (2 wins) $8.60
2- Courtney Brogle (1 win) $4.60
3- Chris Murray (1 win) $4.00
3- Emily Ellis (1 win) $4.00
3- Eddie Harrison (1 win) $4.00
6- Gabby Bermudez (0 wins) $0.00
6- Shaily Jani (0 wins) $0.00
It’s anyone’s event to win or lose and a successful value play could make the difference at the end of the month. The competition for personalized art and kooky pens is sure to intensify. Let’s take a look at the field:
Fair Grounds, Race 11
Fair Grounds Stakes (G3) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Turf
Post Time: 6:07 p.m. EST, Saturday, Feb. 18
The Field:
1- Tiz the Bomb (B. Hernandez Jr., K. McPeek) 9-2
2- Two Emmys (J. Graham, H. Robertson) 3-1
3- Cavalry Charge (D. Cohen, D. Stewart) 6-1
4- Gentle Soul (R. Gutierrez, W.B. Calhoun) 7-2
5- English Tavern (D. Parker, M. Lovell) 8-1
6- Pixelate (L. Saez, M. Stidham) 8-1
7- Corelli (F. Geroux, J. Thomas) 8-1
8- Bay Street Money (T. Gaffalione, M. Maker) 6-1
UPDATE: The 7, Corelli, has been scratched and will not race. Two competitors, Niko Konstantellis and Maddie Sandholm, have changed their picks in light of the change. Their selections have been updated below.
Experienced Division
Emma Moquin
Division Standing: Tied for 1st, $8.60
Result Last Week: Win, Hit Show in the Withers Stakes ($4.60)
In the days after her second straight win with Hit Show, Emma has repeatedly objected to the tone I assume when judging her performances. I sincerely hope that her desperate need for validation doesn’t cloud her judgment going into Week 3.
Emma’s Pick: 4- Gentle Soul
“I like his running style, his speed figures, the fact that he has successfully beaten some of the field recently, and his jockey is consistent on him”
Rebecca Patterson
Division Standing: Tied for 3rd, $4.00
Result Last Week: Loss, General Banker in the Withers Stakes ($0)
Last week was a speed bump for Rebecca, but the Withers didn’t offer much value anyway, putting her in a solid position to make up ground. As a wide open affair, the Fair Grounds Stakes could be the perfect opportunity.
Rebecca’s Pick: 2- Two Emmys
“I’m picking Two Emmys because he is one of the few horses that has raced recently and got a really great result in that race. He also has a jockey that knows him well and understands how he runs. He has a lot of wins and can never go wrong with the colors and the name.”
George McKnight
Division Standing: Tied for 3rd, $4.00
Result Last Week: Loss, Arctic Arrogance in the Withers Stakes ($0)
Is he the world beater we all thought he was? A runner-up finish for George last week puts him behind Emma and Lucas with two weeks to go. He’ll have to take advantage of his competitors’ mistakes to jump back into the fight for first. It’s a good thing he’s so handsome.
George’s Pick: 4- Gentle Soul
“I’m going with Gentle Soul. Tiz the Bomb hasn’t raced in six months due to injury, and Cavalry Charge has gone 0-6 in his last 6 postings. I liked the veterans’ matchup between Gentle Soul and Two Emmys, but i think the younger horse showed sterner stuff when he upset Two Emmys on Jan. 21 at Fair Grounds.”
Kristina Stevanovic
Division Standing: Tied for 3rd, $4.00
Result Last Week: Loss, Jungfrau in the Withers Stakes ($0)
Kristina picked a bad horse last week, but going into this race, she was asking the editor whether she could use emojis or emoticons in her analysis. Spirits remain high in the Stevanovic camp as she chases the battle at the top.
Kristina’s Pick: 2- Two Emmys
“I think my pick is Two Emmys. I’m not as good at turf races and I usually piggyback off of Paddy’s picks (no pun intended), especially when we’re at the track. This seems like an experienced field but overall I like that Two Emmys has run against the other horses, has a few wins under his belt (saddle), and has some impressive Beyers. I was a bit concerned after googling this horse and seeing that he’s 7 years old but I now see all the others are a bit older as well. Hopefully I’m back on the board after this week. Also hoping for my competitor, Niko, to stop slacking. Excited for week 3 :p”
Niko Konstantellis
Division Standing: 6th, $0.00
Result Last Week: Loss, Arctic Arrogance in the Withers Stakes ($0)
Niko is performing so poorly in the February Invitational that his competitors are rooting for him. But at least the Rangers are looking like the best team in hockey!
Niko’s Pick: 7- Corelli (Update: 2- Two Emmys)
Update: Following the scratch to Corelli, Niko decided to choose a new horse and picked the 2, Two Emmys.
“I don’t think there will be a particularly fast pace for any of the horses unless Two Emmys pushes it early but even then they don’t have unbeatable speed. So I’m actually looking for a horse that can close really well in this race and there is one that closes significantly better than the rest. I’m gonna go with Corelli, I think they just sit back early and then kick it in late to finish. And they, like me, are hungry for a win.”
Lucas Ludgate
Division Standing: Tied for 1st, $8.60
Result Last Week: Win, Hit Show in the Withers Stakes ($4.60)
With another win last week, Lucas is now tied for first with Emma at the halfway point. He controls his own destiny, but will he be able to maintain focus for two more weeks?
Lucas’ Pick: TBD
Lucas has not yet made a selection. He will have until post time Saturday to make one, and this article may or may not be updated to reflect that change, depending on time allowed.
Casual Division
Chris Murray
Division Standing: Tied for 3rd, $4.00
Result Last Week: Loss, Ninetyprcentmaddie in the Withers Stakes ($0)
Chris made a few adjustments to his handicapping style last week, none of which worked. He picked sentimentally, didn’t watch the race live and didn’t bet on his pick. It was a disaster that he is unlikely to repeat going forward.
Chris’ Pick: 4- Gentle Soul
“Let me paint a picture. I was on Two Emmys for weeks. I loved that horse. Every stat I could find seemed to point to a surefire victory in this race. As I went to send in my pick to Mr. Moquin, I thought to myself, “why don’t I take a look at last years G3 Fair Grounds Stakes?” Boy was I disappointed. It was clearly one of the worst races Two Emmys had ever run. I shifted course. Gentle Soul is on a tear. He’s won four of his last five races in a variety of different ways. In a last minute switch, I’m gonna give Gentle Soul a shot. I really don’t like it because he hasn’t ran a race this long in quite a while, but sometimes you just gotta dive into a foxhole when things get ugly.”
Maddie Sandholm
Division Standing: 1st, $8.60
Result Last Week: Win, Hit Show in the Withers Stakes ($4.60)
It’s a streak, ladies and gentlemen. Against all odds, Maddie now has an undisputed hold of first in the casual division and has also outperformed four of the six competitors in the experienced division. The Fair Grounds Stakes presents new challenges — chiefly a lack of her favorite silks colors.
Maddie’s Pick: 7- Corelli (Update: 4- Gentle Soul)
Update: Following the scratch to Corelli, Maddie decided to choose a new horse and picked the 4, Gentle Soul.
“Unfortunately, there aren’t any horses wearing pink this race, which I was really banking on to make this decision easy for me. There’s a lot of black, gold and red in this line up, but I’m looking for something that sticks out. Corelli (with the green and white) and Gentle Soul (with the light blue and navy diamonds) are my top picks. Pixelate is also wearing blue, which I like, but only as a solid, so I’m less inclined to pick him and subsequently am leaning away from Gentle Soul. So I’m going with Corelli – and I do love a good green (shoutout Goodnight Olive).”
Courtney Brogle
Division Standing: 2nd, $4.60
Result Last Week: Win, Hit Show in the Withers Stakes ($4.60)
Courtney’s on the charge after a tough loss in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. Picking Hit Show in the Withers catapulted her into second place and she’s only $4 out of first. Her research could be the difference maker in this… less focused division.
Courtney’s Pick: 2- Two Emmys
“Dear reader, I can’t tell if I’m dumb or there was genuinely not a lot of media coverage that was easily accessible for this particular race, but I hope you aren’t too mad that this prediction is more based on vibes and career manifestations than actual research.
My money’s on Two Emmys this weekend, who has banked over $800,000 in his career and has a lot to live up to. He’s facing off against opponent Gentle Soul, who beat him a recently at the Colonel E.R. Bradley Stakes. But on the whole, Two Emmys has an arguably stronger resume than Gentle Soul and history of running impressive races, including placing second at the Muniz Memorial in 2021 and placing first last year.
Additionally, his trainer and co-owner Hugh Roberts was reported in DRF as having recently said Two Emmys hasn’t “ever really relaxed,” and while contextually he was referring to some of his previous races, I deeply resonate with this frame of mind. I hope Two Emmys wins this weekend and that maybe one day I can have even one Emmy myself — I think the horse would be impressed by the hardware!”
Shaily Jani
Division Standing: Tied for 6th, $0.00
Result Last Week: Loss, Arctic Arrogance in the Withers Stakes ($0)
As Emma Moquin, current experienced division leader, put it, “Man, Shaily’s been laying an egg lately.” Once considered a key contender in the casual division, she remains winless through two weeks. Confidence will be very important as she mounts a comeback bid.
Shaily’s Pick: 1- Tiz the Bomb
“Reasoning: I like the name. I really like the name. I know this approach hasn’t worked for me in the past, but I like the name.”
Gabby Bermudez
Division Standing: Tied for 6th, $0.00
Result Last Week: Loss, Arctic Arrogance in the Withers Stakes ($0)
Gabby’s spiritual communication has led her to two runner-ups and no wins in the Invitational thus far. Are the spirits mean or is Gabby undeserving of their wisdom? What’s her path from here? Where does it lead?
Gabby’s Pick: 3- Cavalry Charge
“Cavalry Charge, no explanation needed because, once again, divination led me to this decision.”
Emily Ellis
Division Standing: Tied for 3rd, $4.00
Result Last Week: Loss, Ninetyprcentmaddie in the Withers Stakes ($0)
After a solid win in Week 1, Emily’s horse in the Withers finished dead last. Though that’s certainly a stark shift in momentum, her birthday and Valentine’s Day this past week are sure to rejuvenate her efforts going forward.
Emily’s Pick: 5- English Tavern
“Makes me think of fireplaces and it’s winter so that feels right.”
Eddie Harrison
Division Standing: Tied for 3rd, $4.00
Result Last Week: Loss, Prove Right in the Withers Stakes ($0)
Eddie picked a wild long shot last week that outran his 80-1 odds but nevertheless finished fifth. As a contender in the mix, his extreme value plays could earn him an emphatic Invitational victory or decisive defeat in weeks to come. No result in between appears feasible.
Eddie’s Pick: 3- Cavalry Charge
“I have #3 – Cavalry Charge for this week. Some of you man know that my third favorite racing sport is stock car racing. Considering the big race this weekend, I feel like this horse will be channelling another #3 out there.”