I’ll be honest — the February Invitational has been a bit of a mixed bag so far. In Week 2, the G3 Withers, which featured a diverse field from around the country, ultimately came down to two favorites, with 6-5 Brad Cox trainee Hit Show breezing past 8-5 second choice Arctic Arrogance in the stretch to win by a wide margin. Last week, even-money favorite Newgate outlasted long shot Hard to Figure to win at a similarly short price.
In some ways, these obvious results have harmed the competition, as guests have not had to be very creative and have actually been punished for value plays. In another sense, however, it has kept things entertaining in a long-term sense. Regardless of whether competitors have won both or neither events, they are still in contention to win their division with two weeks remaining.
Most interestingly, however, success for favorites has not rewarded the guests who entered the competition as the strongest statistically. In the experienced division, two outside contenders have pulled ahead of the obvious favorite, while in the casual division, a massive upset bid is slowly gaining traction as more successful contestants falter. Winnings have been hard to come by thus far, but there seems to be a lot of fun left in store as February wears on.
As a reminder, let’s take a look at the Withers Stakes. As I mentioned in my preview article, I was fortunate enough to cover this event in person through my sports journalism class at Columbia. I’ve been given permission by my professors to self-publish the event coverage story after it’s officially submitted, so it should be available for readers tomorrow. For now, the field:
Aqueduct, Race 9
Withers Stakes (G3) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 4:27 p.m. EST, Saturday, Feb. 11
The Field:
1- Arctic Arrogance (J.Lezcano, L. Rice)
2- Prove Right (J. Gomez, J. Chapman)
3- Jungfrau (D. Davis, W. Mott)
4- Hit Show (M. Franco, B. Cox)
5- General Banker (E. Cancel, J. Ferraro)
6- Ninetyprcentmaddie (A. Adorno, R. Reid)
7- Andiamo a Firenze (F. Pennington, K. Breen)
Race:
Order of Finish:
1- Hit Show (6-5)
2- Arctic Arrogance (8-5)
3- General Banker (8-1)
4- Andiamo a Firenze (32-1)
5- Prove Right (80-1)
6- Jungfrau (4-1)
7- Ninetyprcentmaddie (12-1)
Experienced Division
Emma Moquin
Emma’s Pick: 4- Hit Show
“I think that if he can have an 82 speed figure with Talamo on him, I look forward to seeing what Franco can do.”
Verdict: Emma doesn’t usually adjust well when evaluating shipping horses, which makes this an important win for her. Hit Show, a Brad Cox trainee from Kentucky, was much the best in his New York debut, putting Emma in a two-way tie for first place in the experienced division.
Rebecca Patterson
Rebecca’s Pick: 5- General Banker
“He has a good amount of races on him already and his finishes recently are pretty good too. I like that his colors are red and white and he has a rose.”
Verdict: Rebecca was correct in pointing out General Banker’s recent improvement, and his third-place finish confirms that he was the best value option. But at the wire, this race came down to two overwhelming favorites, to which General Banker was simply inferior.
George McKnight
George’s Pick: 1- Arctic Arrogance
“As much as I hate to choose the clear favorite here, I’m not seeing anything that could keep Arctic Arrogance out of a first-place finish.”
Verdict: This has to be considered a rare misstep for George, who typically has a knack for finding favorites in big races. Though Arctic Arrogance was the morning line favorite, George didn’t anticipate that Brad Cox’s colt Hit Show could improve to defeat the Linda Rice trainee while taking more money at the windows. Fortunately for him, only two of his competitors found the winner for a small price, giving him two weeks to make up the difference.
Kristina Stevanovic
Kristina’s Pick: 3- Jungfrau
“I can absolutely see why some other options may be better, but I’m trusting Bill Mott’s decision.”
Verdict: Bill Mott is certainly a trustworthy trainer in most situations, but in the Withers, he let Kristina down in a big way. At short odds, Jungfrau didn’t provide much value at 4-1, nor did he improve, finishing sixth behind an 80-1 shot. Keeks doesn’t fall too far behind in the standings, but from a handicapping standpoint, it’s unclear if she can bounce back on a short turnaround.
Niko Konstantellis
Niko’s Pick: 1- Arctic Arrogance
“You know.”
Verdict: Though his explanation was brief, I think Niko still over-thought this one. Because he submitted his pick late, the son of Greek oil barons had the opportunity to see his competitors’ picks and altered his own analysis to go against the consensus. Due to events within the NBA and NHL during the week, this was the best he could do without actually studying the race. This new strategy led him to pick a horse that offered next to no value and also lost. He is one of three competitors in either division to remain winless after two weeks.
Lucas Ludgate
Lucas’ Pick: 4- Hit Show
“I reserve the right to switch to Ninetyprcentmaddie prior to race time, but Hit Show is the best horse in the race and my current pick.”
Verdict: The classic non-switch win! Lucas contemplated between the sure thing and the value play throughout the week, but picking Hit Show turned out to be the right call. In a renewal of their bitter feud, Lucas and Emma now share control of the top spot in the experienced division at the halfway point.
Casual Division
Chris Murray
Chris’ Pick: 6- Ninetyprcentmaddie
“It seems ill-advised and I may come to regret it but there was just some intangible that stood out that I can’t quite place my finger on.”
Verdict: Because he was busy with debauched activities in Europe, Chris had minimal time to analyze the Withers and instead seemed to make a sentimental pick, supporting his old managing editor Maddie Sandholm. He’s not the only one who made this decision, so he wasn’t alone when Ninetyprcentmaddie finished dead last.
Maddie Sandholm
Though Maddie did not get her pick in before publication of the Withers preview article, she did submit before post time on Saturday. As a result, her full explanation has been included below.
Maddie’s Pick: 4- Hit Show
“Story time: earlier this week, Em told me she picked a horse with my name in it and then had to defend me because a certain editor at Paddy’s Picks made some unsavory comments in my direction. (I also had to ask how “maddie” was spelled, but was unaware of the missing “e” in percent at the time. I’ve got feelings about that). And with that reminder, I still forgot about picking a horse until the morning of the race. Anyways I sorta feel like I need to pick Ninetyprcentmaddie to stand up for myself… but only 90%?? I am fairly certain I couldn’t beat a horse in a race, so 90% of me probably couldn’t either.
My pick for this race is Hit Show. It came down to him, Jungfrau and Ninetyprcentmaddie because all three of them have pink in their outfit? / uniform? (what do you call what a horse wears during a race?) and that seemed to work pretty well for me last week. I’m not loving the pink fishhook from Ninetyprcentmaddie and Jungfrau’s green and pink just don’t mesh as well as Hit Show’s hot pink and black.”
Verdict: Two people picked Ninetyprcentmaddie because of their friendships with Maddie Sandholm, but Maddie turned the tables on everyone by picking Hit Show. Her gamble paid off and she now has a two-race winning streak. To provide some context, going into the February Invitational, the Clackamas Kid only managed to win one of her first 16 races as a Paddy’s Picks guest. She’s now won two in a row, holds an undisputed lead in the casual division and controls her own destiny going into Week 3.
Editor’s Note: In response to Ms. Sandholm’s accusations concerning verbally abusive editors within this publication, the Paddy’s Picks editorial board has decided to launch an extensive internal investigation. The dastardly culprit will be found and held accountable.
Editor’s Note 2: Electric Boogaloo: A jockey’s uniform/outfit is known as their silks, which are designed by the horse’s owner. Ms. Sandholm was informed of this after her victory last week, but she apparently forgot before winning again.
Courtney Brogle
Courtney’s Pick: 4- Hit Show
“His rebound at Oaklawn Park is encouraging, and while Cox has yet to train a horse that has won the Withers, who’s to say Hit Show won’t change that this weekend?”
Verdict: She’s on the board, and based on the quality of her analysis, she might be here to stay. After Arabian Lion let her down in the G3 Robert B. Lewis, Courtney bounced back immediately in an arguably tougher race to jump into second place. The Invitational is far from over and she’s firmly in striking position.
Shaily Jani
Shaily’s Pick: 1- Arctic Arrogance
“I do really like this one’s name because it’s cool (literally).”
Verdict: Shaily’s strategy in the Invitational is almost identical to her strategy throughout all of 2022, but it hasn’t served her nearly as well with silly prizes on the line. Arctic Arrogance ran well, confirming her light googling, but he was clearly second best behind Hit Show, who ended up being the runaway favorite at the wire. Fortunately, winners have not paid much in the first two weeks of the competition, but she will have to begin searching for value to have any chance of making up ground.
Gabby Bermudez
Gabby’s Pick: 1- Arctic Arrogance
“Okay I used my pendulum for this one. I think Arctic Arrogance is going to place first.”
Verdict: Gabby has now finished second in two straight weeks of the February Invitational — the most frustrating way to rank last at the halfway mark. It’s not that her pendulum isn’t working, as it has now guided her to two credible runners. The universe simply isn’t bending her toward paying winners. There’s still time for a cosmic comeback, however.
Emily Ellis
Emily’s Pick: 6- Ninetyprcentmaddie
“I pick the Maddie horse cause Maddie never loses.”
Verdict: In a spooky turn of events, Emily’s words rang true. Maddie Sandholm, Emily’s fellow competitor, is now on a two-race winning streak. But Emily is not. Loyalty, even to one’s own name, means nothing in the world of Paddy’s Picks. Ninetyprcentmaddie finished dead last Saturday while Maddie, Emily’s competitor, moved into first place by herself in the casual division.
Eddie Harrison
Eddie’s Pick: 2- Prove Right
“I would not have been liable for my actions if I had won that.”
Verdict: Instead of providing an excerpt of Eddie’s pre-race analysis, I decided to include his post-race commentary above. It’s something I may do going forward because it made me laugh. Prove Right, an 80-1 long shot, was in the hunt for most of the race, challenging Arctic Arrogance and arguably costing both of them the race. If Eddie’s pick had won, he wouldn’t have needed the last two weeks to win the month-long competition. Instead, he’ll have to go back to the drawing board for Week 3.
Standings After Week 2
Experienced Division
1- Emma Moquin (2 wins) $8.60
1- Lucas Ludgate (2 wins) $8.60
3- Rebecca Patterson (1 win) $4.00
3- George McKnight (1 win) $4.00
3- Kristina Stevanovic (1 win) $4.00
6- Niko Konstantellis (0 wins) $0.00
Casual Division
1- Maddie Sandholm (2 wins) $8.60
2- Courtney Brogle (1 win) $4.60
3- Chris Murray (1 win) $4.00
3- Emily Ellis (1 win) $4.00
3- Eddie Harrison (1 win) $4.00
6- Gabby Bermudez (0 wins) $0.00
6- Shaily Jani (0 wins) $0.00