Paddy’s Picks February Invitational: Week 2 Preview

After a tricky, vaguely silly first week of the Paddy’s Picks February Invitational, it’s time to get down to business. This week, guest competitors in the experienced and casual divisions will be analyzing the G3 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack.

Originally, my plan was to give my competitors a turf race in the second week, which would provide variety and test their handicapping skills in a different way. But because of a fortunate turn of events in real life, I decided to change that plan.

Through a sports journalism class at Columbia, I was fortunate enough to receive press credentials to cover the Withers Stakes in person Saturday. Because I’ll actually be in attendance and have been studying the race all week, I thought it would be prudent to incorporate this Invitational  into my existing work.

Looking at a New York racing event, guest handicappers should be familiar with many of the trainers and jockeys in this race. It will be a brief homecoming for them before the Invitational moves on to Louisiana next weekend for the G3 Fair Grounds Stakes, a turf event which will compensate for this week’s change.

With a pair of horse drawings and kooky equine pens still up for grabs, let’s take a look at the standings after one week of action.

Standings After Week 1

Experienced Division

1- Emma Moquin (1 win) $4.00

1- Rebecca Patterson (1 win) $4.00

1- George McKnight (1 win) $4.00

1- Kristina Stevanovic (1 win) $4.00

1- Lucas Ludgate (1 win) $4.00

6- Niko Konstantellis (0 wins) $0.00

Casual Division

1- Chris Murray (1 win) $4.00

1- Maddie Sandholm (1 win) $4.00

1- Emily Ellis (1 win) $4.00

1- Eddie Harrison (1 win) $4.00

5- Courtney Brogle (0 wins) $0.00

5- Gabby Bermudez (0 wins) $0.00

5- Shaily Jani (0 wins) $0.00

In the experienced division, every competitor but Niko Konstantellis picked Newgate, who hung on to win the G3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes as an even-money favorite. Many guests in the casual division had similar success, but a $4 profit is unlikely to make the difference for anyone at this point in the event. Both divisions remain wide open as we turn our attention to the morning line for the Withers.

Aqueduct, Race 9

Withers Stakes (G3) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt

Post Time: 4:27 p.m. EST, Saturday, Feb. 11

The Field:

1- Arctic Arrogance (J.Lezcano, L. Rice) 8-5

2- Prove Right (J. Gomez, J. Chapman) 30-1

3- Jungfrau (D. Davis, W. Mott) 4-1

4- Hit Show (M. Franco, B. Cox) 9-5

5- General Banker (E. Cancel, J. Ferraro) 8-1

6- Ninetyprcentmaddie (A. Adorno, R. Reid) 8-1

7- Andiamo a Firenze (F. Pennington, K. Breen) 12-1

Experienced Division

Emma Moquin

Result Last Week: Win, Newgate in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes ($4)

Emma got through the first week of competition in dignified fashion, finding the winner and remaining firmly in the hunt for undisputed first place. The Withers, featuring more horses from a variety of backgrounds, could challenge her conservative style.

Emma’s Pick: 4- Hit Show

“I am going to go with Hit Show. I like that he has a lack of experience so one isn’t sure what they could get. Love the jockey upgrade with Cox as the trainer. I think that if he can have an 82 speed figure and win with Talamo on him, I look forward to seeing what Franco can do.”

Rebecca Patterson

Result Last Week: Win, Newgate in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes ($4)

Rebecca proved that she belonged in the experienced division last week, finding Newgate along with most of her competitors. The Withers offers more white noise, however, and it remains to be seen whether she is capable of staying out of the statistical, proverbial weeds.

Rebecca’s Pick: 5- General Banker

“I’m picking General Banker because he has a good amount of races on him already and his finishes recently are pretty good too. I like that his colors are red and white and he has a rose.”

George McKnight

Result Last Week: Win, Newgate in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes ($4)

The odds-on favorite to win this event took care of business in the February Invitational’s first week. At some point, George may need to take a chance as others begin to consider value picks. The Withers does not seem to be providing such an opportunity for him, however.

George’s Pick: 1- Arctic Arrogance

“What it do baby. Sorry for my lack of insight last week. Unforgivable. Based on the volume of other handicappers in this article, I’m going to keep it brief. I was initially interested in longer-odds horses General Banker and Ninetyprcentmaddie. However, I cut the former based on his lack of success on tracks longer than seven furlongs, and the latter because he has never raced anywhere but Parx in Pennsylvania. I narrowed down the contenders of the Withers to Arctic Arrogance, Jungfrau, and Hit Show. I tossed Jungfrau after looking at his combined lack of experience and subpar showing at NY tracks. Arctic Arrogance looks like the horse to beat, but he’s rocking blinkers in a race for the first time, which could either work out great or totally screw with him. He’s got more experience at Aqueduct than Hit Show, who also has never gone longer than 1 1/16 miles. As much as I hate to choose the clear favorite here, I’m not seeing anything that could keep Arctic Arrogance out of a first-place finish.”

Kristina Stevanovic

Result Last Week: Win, Newgate in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes ($4)

Kristina relayed her pick to me last week with a pair of fingers from across a room, and the 2, Newgate, came home to win and keep her in contention. Her main challenge for the Withers will be remembering to make a pick without seeing my face in person as a reminder.

Kristina’s Pick: 3- Jungfrau

“My pick is Jungfrau. I can absolutely see why some other options may be better, but I’m trusting Mott Williams’s decision. This is the least experienced horse in the race and the others have shown to win or hang out in the top few finishers, but since we’re playing to make the most money off of a hypothetical two dollars, then I’m going with Jungfrau.”

Niko Konstantellis

Result Last Week: Loss, Worcester in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes ($4)

As the only person in his division to lose in the first week, Niko is taking a patient approach to the Withers Stakes while maintaining his value-based strategy. A win at long odds puts him right back in the running.

Niko’s Pick: 1- Arctic Arrogance

“You know.”

Lucas Ludgate

Result Last Week: Win, Newgate in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes ($4)

Because Lucas lives in Texas, he failed to profit off yet another winner he found for Paddy’s Picks, as state gambling laws prevented him from placing money on Newgate. Nevertheless, he solved the all-Baffert handicapping puzzle and lived to fight another day in the experienced division.

Lucas’ Pick: 4- Hit Show

“I reserve the right to switch to the 6, Ninetyprcentmaddie, prior to race time to try to make a big move in the standings. But the 4, Hit Show, is the best horse in the race and my current pick.”

Casual Division

Chris Murray

Result Last Week: Win, Newgate in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes ($4)

Not only did Chris win his first race ever on Paddy’s Picks last week, but he also had the opportunity to actually bet on the horse at some indeterminate location in Europe. Billed as “The Mess” going into the February Invitational, can he turn the tables all at once?

Chris’ Pick: 6- Ninetyprcentmaddie

“I didn’t get nearly as much time as I would’ve liked to look at this because I’m heading to the airport to fly to Budapest right now, but I like Ninetyprcentmaddie or however it’s stylized. It seems ill-advised and I may come to regret it but there was just some intangible that stood out that I can’t quite place my finger on.”

Maddie Sandholm

Result Last Week: Win, Newgate in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes ($4)

If Maddie gets a winning streak going this week, it will undo years worth of highly entertaining incompetence in an instant. One can imagine that there should be an obvious choice for her in this field.

Maddie’s Pick: TBD

Maddie has not yet made a selection. She will have until post time Saturday to make one, and this article will be updated to reflect that change.

Courtney Brogle

Result Last Week: Loss, Arabian Lion in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes ($4)

At the ripe old age of 24, Courtney is the resident elder in the casual division, but don’t let that walker fool you! After a loss in the Robert B. Lewis last week, she’ll be eager to put another nickel in that nickelodeon and get right back out on the floor.

Courtney’s Pick: 4- Hit Show

“Last week, Arabian Lion did me dirty — and served as a good reminder that like many nepo babies in Hollywood, sometimes they are a pretty face with great PR. 

This week, I’m leaning towards Hit Show, a promising and progressive horse under the training of Brad Cox. Though his form can certainly use some improvement — as seen in his fourth place effort at Churchill Downs following his debut win at Keeneland — unlike my pick last week, analysts anticipate him to come in ‘off the pace’ rather than set it like Arabian Lion. His rebound at Oakland Park is encouraging, and while Cox has yet to train a horse that has won the Withers, who’s to say Hit Show won’t change that this weekend?

This is also a public service announcement for people in charge of naming horses: if you EVER pull a ‘Ninetyprcentmaddie‘ again, know you are dead to me. The way any sort of character limit issue could have been solved with a -y ending instead of removing a letter from ‘percent’ … this name choice haunts my dreams.”

Shaily Jani

Result Last Week: Loss, Worcester in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes ($4)

Last week, Shaily picked a horse with a name she could hardly pronounce and it cost her. She adapts quickly though, so readers can expect her to learn from her mistakes and get back in her comfort zone.

Shaily’s Pick: 1- Arctic Arrogance

“I do really like this one’s name because it’s cool (literally). I will say I did a little bit more googling this time and I think he has a solid chance here. He’s fast and he’s fit, so I have hope for him.”

Gabby Bermudez

Result Last Week: Loss, Hard to Figure in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes ($4)

Gabby was torn between her logical and spiritual picks last week, and logic eventually beat her by a half-length. She remains undeterred and decided to develop an even more obscure technique for the second week of the Invitational.

Gabby’s Pick: 1- Arctic Arrogance

“Okay I used my pendulum for this one. I think Arctic Arrogance is going to place first. With Prove Right and General Banker trailing behind. 

I really hope I’m right on this one. I refused to look at any of the stats or numbers (not like I understand them anyway, despite the countless times you have tried to teach me).”

Emily Ellis

Result Last Week: Win, Newgate in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes ($4)

Emily won her first race ever last week! Go Emily! Sure hope she doesn’t pick a real loser horse this week!

Emily’s Pick: 6- Ninetyprcentmaddie

“I pick the Maddie horse because Maddie never loses.”

Eddie Harrison

Result Last Week: Win, Newgate in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes ($4)

Throughout his career as a Paddy’s Picks guest, Eddie has been a storyteller. He’s been a rebel. His yearning for chaos has been perpetually laced with indefatigable traces of nobility. In this sense, I would call him a trail blazer. Others might simply call him a menace. But last week, after nearly three years watching that boulder plummet down and down and down the mountainside, Eddie finally assumed firm control of the only title that matters. He can finally call himself a winner.

Eddie’s Pick: 2- Prove Right

“It appears that last week I had outsmarted even the writer of this very column with my very simple strategy of adding the price of the horse, it’s parents, and the cost to breed it. While I may be wrong about what all of those things actually are and I could easily look up what Pat texted me about them, I’m instead just going to run with it. Why? Because I’m a winner now. And also because I’m in mid season betting form after placing a half dozen eight-leg parlays for this super bowl. The Eddie Strategy™ (patent pending) calls for Prove Right to win this one. Go Birds.”