It’s time to try something new. But not too new.
Welcome to the Inaugural Paddy’s Picks Invitational, a handicapping competition intended to find the most talented guests on this oft-celebrated, participation-trophy-winning website. 13 competitors, split into experienced and casual divisions, will battle through the month of February for the ultimate prizes: a hand-drawn picture of a horse by me (Patrick Moquin), as well as a “crazy” horse-themed ballpoint pen. These prizes may seem quaint to some, but for some reason, my guests have responded with overwhelming enthusiasm.
Each weekend of February, I will assign a race to all 13 competitors. I intend to publish an article before and after each race going forward, but due to unforeseen time constraints this weekend, a recap will have to suffice. At the end of the month, the winner in each division will ultimately be determined by total money earned on four $2 win bets, one for each race they analyze. In the case of a tie, I intend to improvise.
This weekend’s event was the G3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, a prep for the Kentucky Derby held annually at Santa Anita Racetrack in California. Though the rest of the races in this competition will be legitimate, I must admit that this one was a bit of a devilish trick on my part. Bob Baffert, reviled by most of my guests based on information I’ve provided them over the years, was the trainer of every single runner in this four-horse race. Reactions to my decision were as visceral as I hoped for.
Before I introduce my guest competitors, let’s take a look at the field:
Santa Anita, Race 3
Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 4:05 p.m. EST, Saturday, Feb. 4
The Field:
1- Arabian Lion (J. Velasquez, B. Baffert)
2- Newgate (L. Dettori, B. Baffert)
3- Worcester (J. Hernandez, B. Baffert)
4- Hard to Figure (R. Vasquez, B. Baffert)
Race:
Order of Finish:
1- Newgate (1-1)
2- Hard to Figure (12-1)
3- Worcester (5-2)
4- Arabian Lion (2-1)
Experienced Division
Guests in the experienced division have made at least eight appearances on Paddy’s Picks. In their analysis, they have demonstrated an advanced understanding of horse racing and handicapping theory. Many of them have also enjoyed a fair bit of success, though this was not the primary deciding factor in their selection.
Emma Moquin
Lifetime Record: 18 races, 5 wins, $2.13 ROI
The Blue Blood
Though many guests on Paddy’s Picks claim to have learned a lot about the sport in recent years, no one has had to endure hourlong equestrian diatribes quite as long as Emma Moquin. With two decades of exposure to the sport, most of which she didn’t want or ask for, she figures as a dangerously seasoned competitor in the experienced division.
Emma’s Pick: 2- Newgate
Editor’s Note: Emma did not provide an explanation for her pick, possibly due to a misunderstanding of this competition’s format. Editors at Paddy’s Picks will ensure that this issue is rectified before the competition resumes next weekend.
Verdict: That’ll do. Emma was one of many competitors to nail this first race, as Newgate did appear to be a marginally better runner than his three stablemates. I sincerely hope we all get to read Emma’s beautiful prose for subsequent events, but accuracy is an excellent substitute for now.
Rebecca Patterson
Lifetime Record: 2 races, 1 win, $4.30 ROI
The Wild Card
Most of the competitors in the experienced division are familiar with one another’s handicapping styles, which makes Rebecca a potential threat, as she enters the contest in relative obscurity. Though she lacks experience on paper, she did make her first trip to Saratoga Racecourse over the summer and has been receiving horse racing lessons from Emma Moquin, her cousin. Her most notable win since taking an interest in the sport came in the 2022 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, when she correctly picked the talented mare Alpinista to win in a 20-horse field.
Rebecca’s Pick: 2- Newgate
“Colors for sure the best on Newgate. Horsie has the most races and has an extra one on Hard to Figure. The speed figures are good too and the jockey seems to be doing well with the horse.”
Verdict: She might just be the real deal. Not only did Rebecca find Newgate, the most experienced, best-prepared runner in the race, but she also identified Hard to Figure as a valuable contender. She found the right one in the end, but her unforeseen ability to look for value could come in handy down the line.
George McKnight
Lifetime Record: 9 races, 7 wins, $6.45 ROI
The Favorite
Based on his Paddy’s Picks record dating back to 2020, this month-long competition is George’s to lose. He is statistically the most successful guest handicapper in Paddy’s Picks history by a wide margin, but there are weaknesses to note. While his success rate is high, George’s appearances on the site have been sparse in comparison to his competitors. Can he sustain his superb win rate in this more demanding environment?
George’s Pick: 2- Newgate
Editor’s Note: George did not provide an explanation for his pick, possibly due to a misunderstanding of this competition’s format. Editors at Paddy’s Picks will ensure that this issue is rectified before the competition resumes next weekend.
Verdict: George hasn’t made a pick since December, but rust clearly wasn’t an issue in his first week at the February Invitational. We’ll never know why George supported Newgate, as he didn’t ultimately provide an explanation. Let’s all agree that he picked the horse because he found it most attractive.
Kristina Stevanovic
Lifetime Record: 13 races, 4 wins, $1.73 ROI
The Outsider
Though she’s far from win-averse, racking up a number of victories as a longtime Paddy’s Picks guest, it’s undeniable that Kristina’s most memorable horse racing moments have been triumphant and gut-wrenching in roughly equal measure. It’s impossible to count her out, however.
Kristina’s Pick: 2- Newgate
Editor’s Note: Kristina did not provide an explanation for her pick, possibly due to a misunderstanding of this competition’s format. Editors at Paddy’s Picks will ensure that this issue is rectified before the competition resumes next weekend.
Verdict: Not only did Kristina refuse to provide analysis for her pick, but she also spit in my face and told me that my readers didn’t deserve to hear her explanation. Can you believe it? Usually a kind and benevolent individual, her early success in the February Invitational is mired somewhat by this change in attitude.
Niko Konstantellis
Lifetime Record: 20 races, 3 wins, $1.44 ROI
The Journeyman
With 20 appearances on Paddy’s Picks, Niko has made more appearances than any other guest over the years. The frequency of his picks has not corresponded to many wins, however, calling his ability into question. The Paddy’s Picks Invitational could be an opportunity to change those perceptions.
Niko’s Pick: 3- Worcester
“Coming in I knew exactly how I was going to pick this race and I’m happy to see my logic is backed up in the odds. Baffert putting his go-to jockey on this horse.”
Verdict: So yes, it is very funny that Niko was the only experienced handicapper to miss Newgate this weekend. But he may be on to something. Because Newgate only paid $4 at the wire, he trails by a negligible amount with three races to go. All of those events will presumably be more competitive than this one, giving him ample opportunity to find value. There’s no need to panic yet.
All that being said, I also feel compelled to point out that J.J. Hernandez was not Bob Baffert’s first choice in this race, contrary to Niko’s analysis. Baffert goes to him often for local races, explaining the high percentage between the two, but the legendary trainer would certainly favor jockeys like John Velasquez or Mike Smith in bigger events. In this case, getting European jockey Frankie Dettori proved to be the trump card.
Lucas Ludgate
Lifetime Record: 18 races, 5 wins, $3.20 ROI
The Contender
In terms of Paddy’s Picks guest analysis, Lucas is as solid as they come, a far departure from his soft, gooey demeanor in day-to-day life. In addition to a keen ability to spot a winner, he isn’t afraid to go after bigger prices, an instinct that could come in handy in a competition against more conservative handicappers. A win over George is motivation enough for this contestant.
Lucas’ Pick: 2- Newgate
“The 2 straight up. Assume he’ll close as the favorite but I don’t know how in God’s name he didn’t go into it as the favorite on the morning line.”
Verdict: Lucas demonstrated a keen understanding of odds in this race intended to mess with him. Not only did he predict that Newgate was the best horse in the race, but he also correctly questioned Santa Anita’s morning line odds maker’s decision to give Arabian Lion the edge at 7-5. It was a solid effort in a race where he couldn’t do much.
Casual Division
Guests in the casual division are a hoot and a half. In truth, narrowing down my list of casual handicappers to just seven was extremely difficult, but I truly believe that this group captures the wide variety of ways in which a less experienced/successful bettor can form an opinion at the races.
Chris Murray
Lifetime Record: 13 races, 0 wins, $0.00 ROI
The Mess
Despite earning modest successes during his in-person trips to the racetrack, Chris has been woefully inadequate as a Paddy’s Picks guest. With 13 attempts and 0 wins, he enters the contest as the least profitable guest in the history of the website. His knowledge of the sport warrants a place in the experienced division, but such an honor needs to be earned.
Chris’ Pick: 2- Newgate
“Logic has gotten me nowhere. I like the name, I like the fact that he always hangs around the top three, I like the fact that he’s actually raced this year, I like the fact that he has decent closing figures. Just a vibe I’m getting. And I like this Dettori fella.
Also, I’d like to remind the folks at home that I consider myself an experienced bettor when it counts, i.e. at the tracks. I just have not flourished with any of my Paddy’s Picks so I humbly accept the placement into the casual division.”
Verdict: There couldn’t have been a better time for Chris to break through. By picking Newgate, the youngster earned more than his first Paddy’s Picks win, as he also made a statement with a big competition brewing. Momentum will be key for London’s greatest import as February wears on.
Maddie Sandholm
Lifetime Record: 15 races, 1 win, $0.38 ROI
The Hexer
At one point in time, Maddie realized that she was accidentally learning about horse racing and reversed course. She now makes picks solely based on her own amusement — winning is a secondary priority, if it’s a priority at all. Usually, she makes her picks based on the names of the horses, which has gotten her nowhere and actually seems to curse runners on occasion. But contest regulations require her to receive the Daily Racing Form, so she now has access to So Much information. She will literally never use any of it.
Maddie’s Pick: 2- Newgate
“This is the most words I’ve ever been given to make a Paddy’s Pick and I’m simultaneously overwhelmed and confused because I don’t know what the majority of this means. But if I know one thing, it’s colors —and turquoise and pink are the best color combo I’m seeing here, so Newgate obviously has the clear advantage. This horse is dressing for successing (and will look so cute crossing that finish line first).”
Verdict: He successed so good. In a duel at the wire, Newgate’s turquoise and pink colors surely made the difference against Hard to Figure, whose jockey bore inferior red and yellow silks and lost by a neck. It’s a good thing that she knows one thing, and it’s even better that the thing is colors. It came in handy here.
Courtney Brogle
Lifetime Record: 4 races, 2 wins, $4.23 ROI
The Rising Star
Courtney is a relatively new addition to the rich guest handicapping scene on Paddy’s Picks, but she has shone in early attempts on the site. Her style is guided by pragmatic research and a smattering of intuition, which she has used to great effect in four attempts thus far. She’s a clear contender in the volatile casual division.
Courtney’s Pick: 1- Arabian Lion
“My hefty $2 bet rests on Arabian Lion’s shoulders. While he finished in fifth (and final) place in the Los Alamitos Futurity — a stakes debut — given his most recent late-January workout, the loss was (hopefully) a fluke. He left viewers with a strong first impression during his October race, and the following month came in at a close second.
And lest we forget, even racing horses can be nepo babies … though I’m sure most horses racing in competitions of this pedigree have to have some impressive DNA test results to even get in the door nowadays. Arabian Lion’s father Justify was the 2018 Triple Crown winner, and his great grandmother (also known in the racing world as his “third dam” — thank you Pat for verifying what that meant!) was Personal Ensign, a champion of the 1980s who retired after 13 consecutive wins, the longest win streak at that point in modern racing history. The fact that we’re so early in Arabian Lion’s career is exciting, he’s bound to make his mark — and it could start with this race. At the very least, he’s more than likely going to dictate the pace from the jump.”
Verdict: Courtney’s research was well-founded, but for all of Arabian Lion’s superior breeding, he demonstrated once again that he simply may not be suited for longer distances. Because nearly everyone in both divisions picked Newgate, I do appreciate a bolder pick in a competition based on value, but Courtney will find herself in a small hole entering Week 2.
Shaily Jani
Lifetime Record: 10 races, 4 wins, $3.71 ROI
The Chaos Agent
Her accuracy isn’t reasonable. Using little more than names, Shaily managed to scrape together four impressive wins in the 2022 season, her first on Paddy’s Picks. Her confidence is earned with so much early success, but how long can this star possibly burn?
Shaily’s Pick: 3- Worcester
“Worcester? I hardly know ‘er! It reminds me of Worcestershire sauce which I still don’t know how to pronounce. There’s an air of mystery around this horse. My gut is telling me it might be a close call but Worcester feels promising.”
Verdict: Man, Shaily’s gut was terrible here. First off, good joke. But second off, not knowing how to pronounce “Worcester” or “Worcestershire” is a massive red flag. Meanwhile, the race did end up coming down to a close call, but her horse was nowhere near that photo and finished third.
Gabby Bermudez
Lifetime Record: 9 races, 1 win, $0.68 ROI
The Clairvoyant
No guest is more happy to be included on Paddy’s Picks than Gabby Bermudez. Her enthusiasm, which includes an entire Instagram Highlights section worth of her selections on her account, has not exactly transitioned to tangible victories. But her psychic abilities have to kick in at some point, right? Right?
Gabby’s Pick: 4- Hard to Figure
“I’m gonna go with Newgate. But I have a feeling I’m going to regret this because I actually want to go with Hard to Figure. I am trying to be better at choosing a horse to win, based on math. Newgate makes sense, good stats and has a good chance at placing either 1st or 2nd. But I just have a feeling about Hard to Figure. My psychic senses are telling me to choose for Hard to Figure.
I change my mind. I’m going with Hard to Figure. Vibes over logic.”
Verdict: Heartbreaking. Not only did this race come down to Newgate and Hard to Figure, but if the latter horse had won, Gabby would have taken a massive, uncontested lead in the casual division. She was the only guest in either division to pick the runner-up, making it all the more disappointing that her logical pick was the one that denied her at the wire.
Emily Ellis
Lifetime Record: 12 races, 0 wins, $0.00 ROI
The Romantic
With 0 wins in 12 attempts, Emily Ellis is entering this competition with unrivaled, perplexing intensity. She has trash-talked her fellow guests and repeatedly claimed that the prizes were as good as hers. As an English major focusing on writing paranormal romance, her competitive spirit is somewhat hard to understand.
Emily’s Pick: 2- Newgate
“I’m writing a story about a woman’s prison right now. And Newgate is a famous prison. So it’s fate.”
Verdict: If I know anything about Emily, the women’s prison in that story of hers is either really whimsical, soul-crushingly sad, or haunted. It was fate, however, that she would encounter this runner in her first week in the February Invitational. This is her first win on Paddy’s Picks, and like Chris’ victory, it could not have come at a better time. Game on.
Eddie Harrison
Lifetime Record: 9 races, 0 wins, $0.00 ROI
The Swashbuckler
Eddie’s not here to make friends, mostly because he doesn’t really know a single person in his division. In some ways, Eddie’s easy going demeanor makes him the ideal gambler. But in nine attempts on the site, he has not yet managed to cash in despite some very classy, startlingly well-written analyses. It will be interesting to see how competition impacts his ability.
Eddie’s Pick: 2- Newgate
“This is important business now. The start of a new season if you will. I decided to look at the numbers. I know a thing or two about genetics, so I added the value of the horses’ parents to find the best horse. I’m going with Newgate.”
Verdict: Our third winless wonder to finally cash in! Maybe I should have been giving everyone four-horse races this entire time. For the life of me, I have no idea what Eddie was talking about when he said that he “added the value of the horses’ parents.” I imagine him hunched over a desk examining DNA samples, except the samples are actually beans and he’s been driven insane. In any case, this is important business now, and Eddie has officially risen to the occasion.
Standings After Week 1
Experienced Division
1- Emma Moquin (1 win) $4.00
1- Rebecca Patterson (1 win) $4.00
1- George McKnight (1 win) $4.00
1- Kristina Stevanovic (1 win) $4.00
1- Lucas Ludgate (1 win) $4.00
6- Niko Konstantellis (0 wins) $0.00
Casual Division
1- Chris Murray (1 win) $4.00
1- Maddie Sandholm (1 win) $4.00
1- Emily Ellis (1 win) $4.00
1- Eddie Harrison (1 win) $4.00
5- Courtney Brogle (0 wins) $0.00
5- Gabby Bermudez (0 wins) $0.00
5- Shaily Jani (0 wins) $0.00