Greetings from Saratoga Springs! For those of you who unaware, due to renovations at Belmont Racetrack, this year’s Belmont Stakes is being held at Saratoga Racecourse for the first time in the race’s history. I’m lucky enough to be in attendance and writing to you from the track this morning.
While this year’s Belmont Stakes field isn’t anything special, the historic nature of this venue change is certain to elevate it, while also transforming it into a different event. From a sporting standpoint, cutting the race back to 1 ¼ miles makes it more closely resemble the Travers in August. There has been talk of shortening the marathon race for a long time, and while I can understand the temporary change to accompany Saratoga, I sincerely hope it doesn’t stay this way forever.
The goal of this article is to provide analysis for each of the 10 horses in this year’s Belmont field and make some picks in the end. You all know the drill — let’s get into it.
Saratoga, Race 12
Belmont Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ¼ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 6:41 p.m. ET
1- Seize the Grey
Well, I was wrong about this colt last time, but so was everyone else. D. Wayne Lukas correctly spotted that his trainee could handle extra distance and confidently placed him in the Preakness. Here’s a slight issue: the Preakness was a terrible race from a visual standpoint. Yes, he did a nice job to get the lead and earned a 100 BSF, but his competitors were crawling home in that mud and he never seemed challenged. I’d have to expect that things will be tougher this time around.
2- Resilience
The tote board won’t be kind to this runner, but he’s a lot better than he looks on paper. After winning the G2 Wood Memorial in April, I would argue he quietly took a step forward in the Kentucky Derby to finish sixth with a very bold sweeping move around the turn. Bill Mott has had him at Saratoga for a month preparing for this start, and it’s reasonable to expect him to be in sharp condition after a nice workout on June 2. Toss him at your own risk.
3- Mystik Dan
The Derby winner didn’t go quietly when he was denied the Triple Crown in the Preakness, but he did about as well as I expected him to do after a dressed up Kentucky Derby win. Getting that rail trip at Churchill made all the difference against the likes of Sierra Leone and Forever Young, and he was talented enough to take advantage. On an even playing field, he’s still an above average runner at this level, but the bottom line is that he’s facing well-rested rivals here that might be a step faster anyway.
4- The Wine Steward
After three wins to start his career, this colt has developed a bad bridesmaid habit with three straight place finishes by less than a length. He was the beaten favorite in his last two. He has not ventured beyond G3 stakes competition since his two-year-old season and Luis Saez is leaving to ride another outsider. We can safely toss him.
5- Antiquarian
The G3 Peter Pan has proven to be a very useful prep for the Belmont in recent years (Arcangelo, Sir Winston), but this colt still has some improving to do. I appreciate the performance, in which he effectively stalked the pace and held a few stubborn foes in the stretch. He wasn’t necessarily facing the best competition there, however, and he will need to get faster to have a chance here.
6- Dornoch
He seemed well on his way to serious Triple Crown contention before laying an egg in the G1 Blue Grass back in April. In the Kentucky Derby last time out, he deserves every excuse after starting slower than he would have liked and getting trapped on the rail. The real question is whether or not he can stalk the pace. He has the heart to compete for the lead when he has the chance to do so, having defeated Sierra Leone in gutsy fashion in the G2 Remsen. Hitting the front early may be difficult, however, and he hasn’t yet proven he can effectively pass horses. If he figures it out, he could be incredibly dangerous at a price.
7- Protective
This maiden is simply overmatched by this field. Irad Ortiz leaves to ride stablemate Mindframe.
8- Honor Marie
It’s hard to rule him out after the Kentucky Derby, when he got bumped around throughout the race and never had a serious chance to run. Before that, he took a big step forward to a take place money in the G2 Louisiana Derby behind talented closer Catching Freedom. With the right pace setup, he could be a very interesting outsider in this field, but he will still have to outkick Sierra Leone in the stretch to have a winning chance.
9- Sierra Leone
He’s undoubtedly the horse to beat. Mystik Dan got the perfect trip in the Kentucky Derby, but this colt was clearly the best runner, going wide around the turn and still coming up just short at the wire. He’s two photo finishes away from a perfect five-race record and he could probably get a little closer to the front if he wanted to do so. It’s his race to lose after skipping the Preakness.
10- Mindframe
It’s just so much to ask of him. He’s an awesome horse that clearly has a bundle of potential, but this will be his first stakes start. I fully understand the hype and might buy in at the right price, but in addition to a class hike, he’s also stretching out in distance. He’s definitely fast enough, which is half the battle, but this precocious runner has a ton to prove in a tough spot.
Order: 9 2 10 3
Sierra Leone is clearly the one to beat here, and it would be greedy of me to claim that I could find any horse to upset him on paper. He will have a lot of work to do from the back of the pack, but he nearly pulled it off in a much tougher Derby scenario. As I said earlier, he would have to regress to miss here. Resilience is my long shot pick in this race because I think he has some upside after a handful of promising starts. He has to get faster but he’s getting a great chance to improve. Mindframe wouldn’t be a shock to win here in his stakes debut, as his first two races were exceptionally strong. Still, Pletcher is asking him for a lot and the price isn’t really where it should be for such an early overachiever. Mystik Dan is a better horse than I’ve previously given him credit for, but I don’t see him maintaining his form across three Triple Crown races.