Paddy’s Picks Analysis: 2024 Breeders’ Cup, Day 2

The staggered time zones have provoked Breeders’ Cup organizers to push up the Breeders’ Cup Classic to the eighth race on the Del Mar card. I find this decision to be a ridiculous disservice to the races that will follow it, but am nevertheless immensely excited for the stacked card ahead.

There is no way for me to effectively set the stage for an event of this magnitude. The only way for readers to truly appreciate this year’s Breeders’ Cup is to experience it, either through the Racing Form or at the betting windows. Let’s get right into it.

Del Mar, Race 4

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (G1) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt

Post Time: 3:00 p.m. ET

9- Ways and Means

I would like Ways and Means a lot more on another track, but she remains the strongest runner in this field. Since cutting back in distance after a disappointing run in the G1 Kentucky Oaks, she’s been unstoppable as a reformed sprinter. She didn’t have it easy in the early goings of the G1 Test or G2 Gallant Bloom but still romped from just off the pace in the slop on each occasion. A blowout win against a much weaker field at Saratoga back in June affirms that she can put up a big speed fig on a fast track.

3- Pleasant

I’m looking for a horse for the course here to provide some value, and I keep coming back to Pleasant. The speed figures are light and this is a mighty tough spot for the Bob Baffert trainee to make a stakes debut. Still, if not for a setback in 2023 after a nice win at Del Mar, it’s almost certain that she would have already stepped up at some point. In her only 2024 start, she seemed more mature in a flashy win against a weaker Los Alamitos field. The fact that Baffert feels confident enough to step her up for this task off that start makes her interesting at a price.

6- Society

It’s very hard to figure out what Society is going to do here. Since wilting to Goodnight Olive in this race last year, she has only made two appearances, and even that’s been a mixed bag. She didn’t have any excuse in the G3 Chicago, giving up an uncontested lead in a five-horse field on a speed-favoring track. She came back in August and improved, however, delivering a 102 BSF and turning the tables on Vahva in the G1 Ballerina. On paper, she seems like a likely wire-to-wire candidate over this track, but I’ve never trusted her and won’t start now.

4- Vahva

Vahva is among the best in the country when she fires her best shot, but that performance last time out in the G1 Ballerina raises some red flags. Society ran her off her feet and Scylla, a router by trade, cut back in distance and easily outpaced her in the stretch. The layoff likely helps her get back on track, but while she fires fairly fresh after time off, she’s never managed to pull off a win. This feels like a tall task.

Order: 9 4 6 7

I really struggled with this race and never managed to develop much conviction. We can move on.


Del Mar, Race 5

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Five Furlongs on the Turf

Post Time: 3:41 p.m. ET

9- Cogburn

In stark comparison to many of his European counterparts, Cogburn has developed a running style devoid of grace or finesse. He runs like his hair is on fire. Since returning as a five-year-old, he has completely dominated three straight turf sprints against extremely tough fields. In the G1 Jaipur, he ran 5 ½ furlongs faster than any horse that has ever lived. With a gauntlet of Europeans lining up to take a shot at him, the Steve Asmussen trainee with an ass-kickin’ name feels more than up to the task.

12- Bradsell (GB)

Bradsell (GB) has always been a classy fella, but he’s really become a dialed-in superstar as a four-year-old. After a solid freshener in August, he rattled off two straight G1 victories with massive Timeform Ratings, taking down professional filly Believing on both occasions. On a softer surface last time out in France, he came up short as the runner-up, but that merely suggests that coming to California might be a step in the right direction. He’s a very solid contender that figures to be one of the first runners to take a shot at Cogburn on the turn.

6- Star of Mystery (GB)

Star of Mystery (GB) has been hanging tough with some brutal company since coming to the U.S. in June. She faced males in two starts at Saratoga, finishing third behind Cogburn in the G1 Jaipur before taking down an age-restricted field in the G3 Quick Call with a 107 BSF. Coming off a layoff in October, she regressed while facing females in the G2 Franklin, but she nearly overcame a tough trip from the back to win that one anyway. Returning to older male competition with a few more months of experience and a freshener after time off, she figures to be in the mix. 

11- Big Evs (Ire)

Big Evs (Ire), the reigning BC Juvenile Turf Sprint Champion, deserves a look simply because he has already demonstrated an affinity for harder California surfaces. His three-year-old campaign thus far has been solid, highlighted by a big win over Asfoora and Believing in the G2 King George in August. He struggled in the G1 Nunthorpe behind Bradsell and others last time out, but Michael Appleby’s willingness to bring him back to California is a sign that he’s used the layoff to shake off the defeat. 

Order: 9 12 6 11

It usually requires a special American to go against the European contingent in these sorts of races, but I think we have a live one this year.

Del Mar, Race 6

Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt

Post Time: 4:21 p.m. ET

2- Thorpedo Anna

There’s very little to say about her that hasn’t been said already. Her three-year-old campaign has been immaculate from start to finish. In the G1 Travers, she gave Breeders’ Cup Classic contender Fierceness the best fight of his life, proving more than capable of contending with one of the best male runners in the country. She didn’t get everything her way in the G1 Cotillion next time out, but still managed to grind home in another gutsy win. This upcoming race shouldn’t be dismissed as another walkover, however. She’ll need to dial one up again in her first start against older females.

9- Awesome Result

Japanese runners haven’t fared well in the Breeders’ Cup so far this year, but Awesome Result deserves a shot in international waters after going undefeated in seven starts across the Pacific. In an extremely rare case, this filly is cutting back considerably in distance. She has proven capable of consistently running beyond 1 ¼ miles, a distance few females are ever tested at in the U.S. After spending most of her career grinding out wins in mixed-gender fields, she took part in her second female-restricted race last time out and dominated in the Breeders’ Gold Cup. If she stacks up against the Americans, she has every chance.

6- Raging Sea

Raging Sea isn’t a flashy runner in the older female division. In fact, in the G1 Ogden Phipps back in June, Randomized and Idiomatic demonstrated that she was a step below the very best. But on a friendlier track in August, this Chad Brown trainee finally turned the tables on her classier rivals, taking down Idiomatic to win the G1 Personal Ensign. Though she has won six graded stakes races in her last seven starts, that’s the one that makes her a contender here. Whether the track sets up for her closing style again is another matter.

5- Sugar Fish

The speed figures are obviously light and her only race at Del Mar was a disastrous try in the G1 Clement L. Hirsch, but this local runner showed some heart to win her second G2 stakes race at Santa Anita last time out. I’ll let her fill out my top four.

Order: 2 9 6 5

With Idiomatic, Randomized and Pretty Mischievous out of action, this is Anna’s race to lose.

Del Mar, Race 7

Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ½ Miles on the Turf

Post Time: 5:01 p.m. ET

11- Rebel’s Romance (Ire)

Trips to the U.S. are either stellar or horrendous for Rebel’s Romance (Ire). In 2021, Charles Appleby brought him over with the intent of entering him in the Belmont Stakes, only for the horse to suffer an injury and miss most of the season. In 2022, he returned as a turf superstar and proved it by taking the BC Turf. Last year, he went back to New York for a pair of stakes races, in which he tossed a rider and finished a disappointing fourth. He’s been around the world this year and hasn’t lost a step, picking up G1 wins in Qatar, UAE, Hong Kong and Germany. His only loss came in the G1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth behind superhorse Goliath. If he brings his best back to the States, he’ll be very tough to beat.

4- Luxembourg (Ire)

Luxembourg (Ire) has had a highly profitable career on the fringes of the G1 scene in Europe for the better part of four years, but he still hasn’t managed to earn that signature win as an older horse. He’s hung with the best of them over the years, including Romantic Warrior and Auguste Rodin, but he’s still riding the potential of his elite 2022 season as a three-year-old in many ways. He has taken an obvious step back in his two most recent starts, both sixth-place finishes, but very few in here could have stuck to the leaders in the G1 Irish Champion last time out. I think he still has something left in the tank.

2- Emily Upjohn (GB)

There was a brief period in 2023 when Emily Upjohn (GB) managed to successfully take on the boys, winning the G1 Coronation Cup and finishing just behind Paddington in the G1 Coral Eclipse. She eventually lost that form and has been somewhat aimless since, but her most recent start in the G1 Prix Vermeille offers some hope. Though she couldn’t make up ground on Bluestocking, who also defeated Rebel’s Romance and Luxembourg this season, the John Gosden trainee still managed to hold on for third and earn a 120 Timeform Rating. That’s the best figure she’s earned since that stint last year, indicating that she may be rounding back into fighting shape at the right time.

5- Jayarebe (Fr)

Jayarebe (Fr) is the up-and-comer in this group, a three-year-old stepping into G1 competition after steadily improving all season. In his first try against older horses last time out in the G2 Prix Dollar, he battled to regain the lead and win by a head with a career-best 117 Timeform Rating. That performance was on soft turf and he still needs to prove himself at this distance, but he’s trending in the right direction.

Order: 11 4 5 2

Europeans abound.

Del Mar, Race 8

Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ¼ Miles on the Dirt

Post Time: 5:41 p.m. ET

To save myself some space, I gave the Classic its own article and analyzed every horse. Link here.

Del Mar, Race 9

Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 ⅜ Miles on the Turf

Post Time: 6:25 p.m. ET

3- Cinderella’s Dream (GB)

Charles Appleby brought Cinderella’s Dream (GB) to New York this summer, where she rattled off two graded stakes wins in another successful Godolphin venture stateside. Beyond a poor start in the G1 English 1000 Guineas in May, where she was in way over her head at a mile, she hasn’t run a step out of place in seven career races. She has fired fresh off layoffs in the past, and I believe that adding distance should allow her to take another nice step forward.

4- War Like Goddess

This might be War Like Goddess’ last chance to win a Breeders’ Cup race. The American superstar has had a beautiful career in which she has consistently been at the forefront of the turf division, but she has never cashed in for a championship in November. She only has one win in four starts this year, and that one came in a G3 race at Delaware. But she finished second in her last two starts, including the G1 Turf Classic against the boys. She’s as ready as she’ll ever be.

7- Content (Ire)

There’s something off here. Aidan O’Brien has two horses in this race and I much prefer Content (Ire) over Ylang Ylang (GB). But O’Brien has Ryan Moore on the latter horse, leaving Frankie Dettori to ride this runner. She hasn’t run her best races lately, losing two G1 races by a combined 22 ¼ lengths, but her form over the summer makes her a potential standout in this field. The distance isn’t a question and O’Brien clearly believes in her enough to ship her here, but if she was truly ready to bounce back, wouldn’t Moore be riding?

2- Full Count Felicia

Full Count Felicia is funky and fun, and I like including those types of horses in my top four. In her last two starts, she has adopted an extremely aggressive running style, one that requires her to take a massive lead on fields of deep closers and try to steal the race at the wire. This has been extremely successful for her and even earned her an upset win in the G1 E.P. Taylor last time out. I would have to imagine she tries something similar here, and I’m all for it.

Order: 3 4 7 2

There are a lot of moving pieces in this race, and I fully expect to get exposed by an obscure but qualified long shot.

Del Mar, Race 10

Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt

Post Time: 7:05 p.m. ET

10- Mullikin

Mullikin is being labeled a seven-furlong specialist and I’m not necessarily refuting that argument. He’s still on top of my board, however, as he’s coming into this race in razor-sharp form, taking the G2 John A. Nerud and G1 Forego with improving triple-digit speed figs. I also think he will manage to work out a trip behind some crazy early speed types. While many of the best runners in this race absolutely have to make the front to have any chance, this colt has shown that he can sit just off and rally if he needs to. Flavien Prat left Federal Judge to ride this one, and I’m willing to follow him.

4- Nakatomi

If the pace really does fall apart in this race, Nakatomi is an excellent candidate to pick up the pieces. This Wesley Ward trainee’s biggest issue over the course of his career is that he’s prone to getting run off his feet, as he did last time out in the G2 Phoenix behind Federal Judge. When he gets something to run at ahead of him, however, he has proven capable of rallying. There may not be another race that sets up this well for him for the rest of his career.

9- Remake (Jpn)

Remake (Jpn) is a little hard to decipher, as he’s breaking a form pattern to make this Breeders’ Cup start. For two straight years, this Japanese runner has successfully picked up minor checks before taking a shot in the G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen. He has not cashed in on the $2 million race either time, indicating that he simply isn’t fast enough at the highest levels. He did defeat Skelly with a rallying trip in the G3 Riyadh Dirt Sprint with a rallying trip, however. Coming off the pace in this one could again prove dividends. Let’s call him interesting.

2- Gun Pilot

Gun Pilot is the closer’s closer in this field, and though his two most recent starts were underwhelming, his win in the G1 Churchill Downs back in May is exactly the sort of performance that should encourage bettors here. If the pace collapses and the track allows for him to improve his position, he has already proven capable of picking up the pieces and earning a triple-digit speed figure. He’s a legitimate long shot.

Order: 10 4 9 2

I didn’t get to mention him because he’s too vulnerable to the impending pace meltdown, but I love Straight No Chaser. Again, he absolutely needs the lead and half the field will be trying to do the same thing. I just think he’s a cool horse.

Del Mar, Race 11

Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 Mile on the Turf

Post Time: 7:45 p.m. ET

6- Notable Speech (GB)

After four straight wins to start his career, Notable Speech (GB) has developed an ‘every-other-race’ pattern. In the G1 English 2000 Guineas and G1 Sussex, his first test against older horses, he won with the sort of performances that can win this event. In the G1 St. James’ Palace and (most recently) the G1 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp, he no-showed. The pattern happens to line up well for him here, and it seems like that he appreciates a tougher surface due to the affinity for synthetic tracks he demonstrated earlier this season. He’s the pick.

7- Porta Fortuna (Ire)

Porta Fortuna (Ire) has only faced the boys once before, when she finished second in the G2 Phoenix as a juvenile. Against three-year-old fillies and later older females this season, she has been brilliant, winning her last three starts in very consistent fashion. She may need to take a small step forward, but she’s been prepped well to do so.

12- Carl Spackler (Ire)

The Americans have a few promising runners in this one, but none have the name recognition of Carl Spackler (Ire). Winning six of his last seven starts dating back to August 2023, he has steadily improved while stepping up in class to become the best miler in the country. His win in the G1 Fourstardave two back was an arrival of sorts, as the 105 BSF and commanding margin of victory made it clear that he was growing stronger. He backed up this form with another solid win in the G1 Turf Mile last time out. He’s an excellent spoiler candidate here.

9- Johannes

Johannes doesn’t have the class to match the Europeans, but the West Coast runner has proven fast enough in four straight graded stakes wins. The 103 BSF he earned in the G2 Eddie Read was against weaker, but he clearly appreciated the Del Mar turf and alleviated a huge concern going into this event. He’s a local challenger with a unique chance.

Order: 6 7 12 9

It feels strange (and potentially wasteful) using two of my top four picks on American runners in this race. That being said, I like my European pair on top, and I believe my two spoilers underneath have a real chance.

Del Mar, Race 12

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 Mile on the Dirt

1- Saudi Crown

Saudi Crown was handled like a superstar this year, and beyond a rough start in the G2 Godolphin Mile, he’s lived up to the billing. His trip to the Middle East was from a waste, as he finished third by less than a length in the G1 Saudi Cup, running very well against the likes of Senor Buscador and Ushba Tesoro. He returned to the U.S. in August and easily handled an ungraded stakes race at Ellis Park. That freshener should allow him to fire a much stronger shot this time around.

9- Domestic Product

This colt cut all the way back to seven furlongs last time out in the G1 Allen Jerkens and ran huge, defeating Prince of Monaco by a neck with a 106 BSF. He’s always appreciated some more distance, so adding a furlong after that sort of performance should be extremely exciting for bettors. With a versatile running style and vastly improved form, he seems very dangerous here.

10- Muth

Since losing to Fierceness in the G1 BC Juvenile last year, Muth has lived under the radar as a three-year-old. He would have been the favorite in the Preakness but scratched out of the race, and he didn’t race again until September when he won an ungraded stakes at Del Mar. It’s hard to explain away his performance in the G1 California Crown last time out, but he clearly appreciates the Del Mar surface on his best day and feelings at this level.

14- Skippylongstocking 

Skippylongstocking is an immensely popular runner, and over the course of his career, he has proven capable of occasionally delivering the sort of massive performance that can win a race like this. It may not be a coincidence that those performances don’t always come in big spots (he earned a 106 BSF in the G2 Charles Town Classic this year), but in the 2023 running of this race, he held well to hang on for third behind Cody’s Wish and National Treasure. He’s a deserving contender.

Order: 1 9 10 14

Peace out!

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