Paddy’s Picks Analysis: 2024 Breeders’ Cup, Day 1

Welcome to the Breeders’ Cup! Over the next two days, I’ll do my very best to guide you through my picks for 14 virtually impossible races featuring the best horses in every discipline of racing. For fans of the sport, it’s a magical event. For handicappers, it’s a glorious nightmare.

The first day of the Breeders’ Cup has been reserved for juvenile races for several years now, and I think it’s an effective way to break up the massive two-day event. The horses running today represent the future of racing three different continents, a wonderful way to kick things off before turning to the present titans tomorrow.

To give an idea of the format, I gave my top four for all six Breeders’ Cup races at Del Mar today and provided thoughts for each of them. Pretty boilerplate Paddy’s Picks business. In the past, I’ve discovered that full-race analysis for 14 races is extremely difficult to do, so I sincerely hope this suffices as you all prepare your own tickets. Let’s jump into it.

Del Mar, Race 6

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1) for Two-Year-Olds, Five Furlongs on the Turf

Post Time: 5:45 p.m. ET

8- Ecoro Sieg

Ecoro Sieg is the wild card of this group and exactly the kind of runner I look for in an evenly matched field. He’s an American-bred, Japanese-trained runner with two career starts under his belt, a dominant maiden win and similarly commanding stakes victory. Hideyuki Mori is one of the most ambitious trainers in Japan and regularly ships horses internationally. The fact that Christophe Lemaire has been riding this horse since his maiden win is another tip-off that he might be the real deal. I have a lot of time on my hands, so I found the Japanese replays. Sure enough, he looks the part of a dominant runner. In fact, in the Canna Stakes, he broke slowly out of the gate, rushed into a duel and still had plenty left to completely level an obviously weak field. It’s simply impossible to know how he stacks up to these, though there are multiple hints that he belongs.

2- Aesterius (Ire)

Aesterius (Ire) gets the edge as my favorite European, as the colt took a lovely step forward to win the G2 Flying Childers last time out, his third stakes win at five furlongs. Even in that win, he could have shown a little more determination near the wire, and I actually think the addition of a turn and some natural maturation should allow him to take another step. He has a ton of seasoning for a two-year-old and jockey Jamie Doyle chose him over another. 

3- Big Mojo (Ire)

Big Mojo (Ire) was a step behind Aesterius last time out after defeating him three back in the G3 Molecomb, though both horses seem to be getting better at a steady clip. Michael Appleby won this race last year at Santa Anita with Big Evs, demonstrating that he knows when a horse can handle the harder California surfaces. This one feels like a solid bet to take that next step in his fifth career start. 

10- Governor Sam

Governor Sam deserves a mention at a price, as this domestic runner hasn’t taken a step out of place in four straight victories at four different tracks along the East Coast. The well-traveled fella is backed by George Weaver, who is typically aggressive and unafraid to try his best juvenile turfers against the Europeans. He might be in over his head at this level, but he’s a winner who has shown a lot of heart early on in his career. 

7- Whistlejacket (Ire)

Whistlejacket (Ire) will be at the top of a lot of tickets  because of the O’Brien/Moore connection. He’s also the class of the field, coming into the Breeders’ Cup off of three straight G1 appearances overseas, all of which he finished as the runner-up or better. My only issue is that O’Brien has been intent on keeping him at six furlongs since a (relatively) poor start in the G2 Norfolk back in June. At this distance over this particular track, he may simply be less comfortable than others that have been preparing better for the cutback.

Order: 2 3 10 8 7

This race is insanely competitive, so I added a fifth horse to the mix. Sue me. Turf sprints on the West Coast are tricky and hard for shippers to adjust to, but I still think the outsiders have this one surrounded. 

Race 7

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) for Two-Year-Old Fillies, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt

Post Time: 6:25 p.m. ET

3- Immersive

In three career starts, Immersive has proven more professional than most horses on the track today. She hasn’t popped a big figure yet in two G1 stakes wins, but she’s won all three of her starts with tactical speed from off the pace. Her most recent win in the G1 Alcibiades was especially solid, one in which she stretched out to a route distance and endured a persistent stretch challenge from fellow runner Quickick on a notoriously tiring Keeneland track. She’s the pick here.

4- La Cara

La Cara is sure to scare handicappers away for a variety of reasons. Her speed figures seem to have regressed significantly while stretching out to a mile. Moreover, she won’t have any chance of winning at Del Mar if she closes from near last, as she did to win the G3 Pocahontas at Churchill Downs. But I see something else here. When she broke her maiden at seven furlongs at Saratoga, she did so while completely unchallenged from wire to wire on the front end, running next-time-out winner Quickick off her feet. The 84 BSF she earned that day fits here. In my opinion, the 72 BSF she earned while winning the Pocahontas next time out was not the result of an extra furlong, but the fact that she was in a very crowded field working with a trip she clearly didn’t prefer. In this light, the fact that she won from 11th demonstrates a ton of grit. With a more favorable go of things in California, I think she can make some noise at a price.

9- American Bikini (Jpn)

American Bikini (Jpn) is a real puzzler in this field, one that I’ve decided to side with for a minor prize. The name of the game for this Japanese runner by American Pharoah is blinding speed. She broke her maiden by completely dusting a field that included fellow runner Otomena Shacho, who then went on to break her own maiden on the front end next time out. This suggests that American Bikini is the speed of the speed in this field. After a short layoff, Takashi Saito brought her back in an ungraded stakes race in late September, where she easily wired a much better mixed-gender field at a more taxing seven furlongs. Over a deeper East Coast track, I would probably fade this speedster trying to stretch out to a route distance against classier horses. But I think the harder and more compact Del Mar track is exactly why this horse is here. She could be a very dangerous candidate to run away with it. Why else would Ryan Moore be riding on dirt?

10- Scottish Lassie

Jorge Abreu was undaunted by Scottish Lassie’s third-place finish on debut when he entered her directly into the G1 Frizette last month at Aqueduct. He was rewarded for this bold placement when she exploded to a nine-length win and earned a 90 BSF. The big figure is sure to earn her support in this race, but in two career starts, she hasn’t necessarily been prepared well for the test she will face here. The waters are about to get deeper, and from the far outside post, it may be difficult to work out the cruising trip she found last time out.

Order: 3 4 9 10

I’m choosing to respect the less exciting, highly professional favorite in this one and will pair her up with a high-upside long shot. The Japanese runner is tempting but there are a few too many question marks. 

Race 8

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) for Two-Year-Old Fillies, 1 Mile on the Turf

Post Time: 7:05 p.m. ET

1- Lake Victoria (Ire)

She sure looks like a world beater. The only question for Lake Victoria (Ire) in this race is whether she can get the mile. Beyond that, she ticks every other box. Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore are a lights-out pair in these Breeders’ Cup turf routes. She hasn’t yet faced a serious challenge in four sparkling victories to start her career, including two daylight wins against G1 competition in September. The 108 Timeform rating she earned in the G1 Cheveley Park last time out would put this entire field in the ground. It’s a privilege to see this sort of runner make an appearance in the United States. Now she just has to deliver.

7- Thought Process

Thought Process appears to be the only hope for American interests in this one, as the Philip D’Amato runner has spent the last three months barreling weak turf fields on the West Coast. Races like the G3 Surfer Girl are usually a flashing warning sign for a cheap winner, but this filly has won three straight in such commanding fashion that I can forgive her background somewhat. Her steadily improving speed figures confirm that she’s head and shoulders above her local competitors. With two wins over the Del Mar turf, she has home field advantage over the Irish-breds.

8- Heavens Gate (Ire)

Heavens Gate (Ire) is clearly a step below Lake Victoria on paper, but the other Aidan O’Brien filly still has plenty to offer here. After struggling as the favorite in the G2 Lowther two back, her trainer obviously decided to use her next start as a prep. He stepped her back down to the G3 level but stretched her out to seven furlongs, where she delivered one of the best performances of her career. She’s obviously not the focus here for Michael Tabor and company, but there’s nothing keeping her from making a race of it in the stretch.

4- Scythian

Scythian isn’t ridiculous at a price. Speed figures put this entire field well behind the top European, but after two starts in NY-statebred company, this filly found a nice trip in the G2 Miss Grillo and capitalized to win going away. She couldn’t touch the very best in this field, but with another inside trip, she could pick up the pieces from the middle of the pack.

Order: 1 7 8 4

This is the first race with an overwhelming favorite in this year’s Breeders’ Cup. An American runner figures as a spoiler candidate, but beyond that, there isn’t much of an edge to find here.

Race 9

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) for Two-Year-Olds, 1 Mile on the Turf

Post Time: 7:45 p.m. ET

4- Ferocious

Ferocious might be a fantastic value pick in this race, a highly touted juvenile that has had a few excuses early in his career. He was heavily favored in two straight stakes starts after a monstrous maiden win at Saratoga, but hasn’t quite cashed in yet. In the G1 Hopeful, he simply seemed uncomfortable at seven furlongs and struggled to kick into gear until the final 100 yards. In the G1 Breeders’ Futurity, he got the added distance he needed but couldn’t get comfortable into the first turn while getting bumped into the rail. By the time he got going, East Avenue had already established an easy lead and ran him off his feet. The jockey shifting may seem like a sign that the riders are giving up on him, but I actually think Javier Castellano is the right kind of jockey for this runner, one that sometimes needs a reminder of the score. He seems like the type that can finally put the pieces together in this spot.

1- East Avenue

East Avenue has a lot going for him in this spot, as his natural early speed on the rail should suit him very well at Del Mar. In two straight starts, he has successfully skipped ahead to an easy lead, however, and that seems less likely this time around with Getaway Car directly to his outside. He may be rushed to the front tans face a new challenge against this field, so I’m taking a small chance against him.

7- Gaming

The California representatives in this race are extremely difficult to evaluate, but I’m landing on Gaming as the most interesting of the bunch. While the other two Bob Baffert runners went from the G1 Del Mar Futurity to the G1 American Pharoah for a distance test, this one skipped. Because he missed out on the chance to prove himself at a route and earn a bigger speed fig, his odds are a little inflated here. But in his only stakes start at Del Mar at seven furlongs, he was much the best against his two stablemates, and I’ll trust Irad Ortiz to help him prove that again while stretching out.

10- Chancer McPatrick

I love Chancer McPatrick for the name, no doubt, but I would have liked his chances better if this year’s Breeders’ Cup was on the East Coast. In three straight starts, he has won in increasingly impressive fashion while closing from dead last. In New York, that’s a plausible way to win against speedy juveniles if the horse is talented enough. It’s a lot harder to do at Del Mar, however, even if the pace is there for him to make up ground.

Order: 4 1 7 10

I’m taking a shot against the favorites in this one because raw talent sometimes makes the difference in the BC Juvenile, a race where many of these youngsters finally start to figure it out. 

Race 10

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) for Two-Year-Olds, 1 Mile on the Turf

Post Time: 8:25 p.m. ET

12- Aomori City (Fr)

I’m really flying blind taking Aomori City (Fr) on top in this one. With a lot of evenly matched European runners, I’m leaning heavily on a jockey/trainer puzzle. Charles Appleby is William Buick’s guy in the United States, and he put his preferred jockey on this horse despite the fact that Al Qudra looks a tad stronger on paper. That’s not the sort of angle I’m going to ignore at a price. There are other things to like as well; before struggling a tad in the G1 Vincent O’Brien, he handled a turn well to win the G2 Vintage, something several of his foes have failed to do. He also seems to like being more forwardly placed than the typical European runner, something Appleby likely sees as a useful tool in the States. I’ll take a shot.

13- Henri Matisse (Ire)

Henri Matisse (Ire) is the class of this field, even if he hasn’t quite cashed in yet at the G1 level overseas. His runner-up showing in the G1 Vincent O’Brien makes him a massive contender in this start, but there are questions about his performance around a right-handed turn in France last time out. It seems likely that he prefers a firmer track, which could assist his transition to Del Mar.

4- Al Qudra (Ire)

Al Qudra (Ire) was the favorite in the G1 Summer last time out, and I would venture to say that he would have beat New Century for a third time if not for a brutal trip in the stretch. Taking a strange step in while confronting the leader, he eventually got stuck tight in between horses while New Century kept on with a full head of steam. He beat that European rival twice in races overseas, so it’s acceptable to consider him the better horse and take the price. It is somewhat puzzling to see William Buick depart for another Appleby runner, however.

11- New Century (GB)

I don’t know what to make of the speed figures coming out of the G1 Summer at Woodbine, but New Century (GB) was the best of them that day. Despite starting slow and traveling eight-wide into the stretch, he still closed well and capitalized on a poor trip for the European rival to his inside. Oisin Murphy is traveling all over the place to ride this colt and he hasn’t led him astray yet. He didn’t take on classy competition in Europe, but the G1 win in Canada helps to abate concerns there. He has every chance.

Order: 12 13 4 11

I feel like I’m taking a silly chance on forces I don’t fully understand in this one, but this is a strange field and I’ve made a lot of money in the past on jockey changes. There’s no dominant favorite in this one, so I’ll go with the angle.

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