A Kentucky Derby without Bob Baffert is like an oil tanker without a fireworks display. Plenty of things can still go wrong, but you’re feeling a lot safer onboard, aren’t you?
Instead of transferring his Derby hopefuls to his colleague, Tim Yakteen, this year, Baffert tried to get around his Churchill Downs ban through the Kentucky Court of Appeals. The court’s decision to enforce the racetrack’s restrictions is a clear win for those who consider Baffert’s doping history to be a stain on the sport. From a purely competitive point of view, however, it is unfortunate that superstar colt Muth, along with a few others in Baffert’s stable, are therefore ineligible to run.
In the years since Baffert’s forceful exit from Kentucky, his presence has still been felt through Yakteen in each Derby field. This will be the first running, then, in which he is completely absent. In his stead, an interesting field of 20 horses has assembled from a wider variety of backgrounds than I’ve seen in some time.
A pair of Japanese runners are exotic and conspicuous, but there are also several American runners represented by trainers I’m completely unfamiliar with, like Whitworth Beckman and Larry Demeritte. As a handicapper, this is a welcome change after being forced to choose between a slew of Baffert representatives every year for my entire life.
Even without Baffert on this massive stage, however, these new players will still have to deal with many of the sport’s leading men. Todd Pletcher. Chad Brown. Steve Asmussen. Bill Mott. Brad Cox. D. Wayne Lukas. Mike Repole. Klaravich Stables. Peter Brant. The Coolmore Group.
The men and groups listed above are not all heroes. Some have done little more than Baffert to uphold the sanctity of the sport. They are, however, the racing establishment, and they contribute as much to the internal drama of a single horse race as they do to the billion-dollar industry surrounding the winner’s circle.
Baffert may be largely confined to his West Coast fiefdom for now, but in the storybook of the 2024 Kentucky Derby, there are plenty of Goliaths out there. They represent some of this field’s most promising four-legged hopefuls, the equine individuals who too often get lost in the swirling seas of petty human politics. Let’s get to know them.
Churchill Downs, Race 12
Kentucky Derby (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ¼ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 6:57 p.m. ET
1- Dornoch
This is one of those unfortunate cases where I respect the horse but consider him to be in the wrong spot. To keep things simple, this colt showed very clearly in the G1 Blue Grass last time out that he needs the early lead to win at the stakes level. We saw him do just that in a gutsy win last year over fellow runner Sierra Leone and again in March when he manhandled a weak G2 Fountain of Youth field. In the Blue Grass though, he failed to get into position to attack the front and was obviously uncomfortable from that point on. Luis Saez did a good job getting him into striking position in the stretch, but he never fired. In the Derby, he’s going to have to fly out of the gate from the rail, but he’ll be joined by an army of similar types gunning for the lead and crashing in on him from the outside. He’s proven in the past that he doesn’t mind some early pressure, but this seems like too much to ask.
2- Sierra Leone
In a field with plenty of front-running types, it might be best to be the one picking up the pieces, and no one’s got a late move like this one. In four starts over four very different dirt surfaces, he has managed to demonstrate remarkable consistency for such a young horse. Barring a brutal photo loss in the G2 Remsen, these late charges have invariably resulted in wins thus far. Getting back on a fast track last time out in the G1 Blue Grass, he moved into the stretch like he’d been shot out of a cannon and came home to win by 1 ½ lengths with a 98 BSF. He’s a serious contender. One thing to note, however: at a short price in a large field, it might not be wise to put all your hopes on a horse that requires too much trip luck. There’s a very real possibility that this colt ends up with 19 horses in front of him at the start, and at 3-1, it would take a lot of trust in the racing gods for me to bet on him to get through that traffic unscathed.
3- Mystik Dan
This colt is custom-made for one of those books that teaches people how to handicap. Where on Earth did that 101 BSF in the G3 Southwest come from? It was his only start on a muddy track and he rode the rail the entire way in the eight-length romp. So is he simply a mudder? Did jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. find a rail bias? The colt fired a similarly random 96 BSF to break his maiden last November — is he just a weird and inconsistent horse? Frustratingly, all of these factors may be behind it, but in any case, this colt returned in the G1 Arkansas Derby on a fast track and ran a mortal race, picking up the pieces for third with an 89 BSF. He’s one to consider if it rains, but there are simply too many question marks.
4- Catching Freedom
In a battle of the late closers in February, fellow runner Sierra Leone overcame the slop to win the G2 Risen Star. This colt improved too, earning a 92 BSF, but he also seemed to get soundly outkicked by a better horse. Nearly three months later, there are exactly two reasons why a bettor would support Catching Freedom over Sierra Leone. First, he has shown slightly, slightly more ability to stay in touch with the field early, which could save him some trouble in a crowded Derby field. Second, he absolutely rocked in the G2 Louisiana Derby with an extra sixteenth of a mile to work with. Though the Fair Grounds track was likely friendly to closers that day, he ate up a ton of ground down the center of the track to win from 11th with a career-best 97 BSF. If he continues to get better as he adds distance, the Derby may be the perfect spot for him.
5- Catalytic
This is the first horse in the field that is tough to make a case for, which I suppose is a good thing. With just one win last October under his belt in three career starts, it doesn’t say much that he managed to hold on to second in a G1 Florida Derby that fellow runner Fierceness put to bed by the quarter pole. The 90 BSF was a nice improvement and a possible sign that he prefers a little more distance, but he lost a $75,000 optional claiming race at Tampa Bay Downs in March. He’s not your bet to win the Derby.
6- Just Steel
First of all, it’s shocking that in five starts, this colt’s best post position of 2024 will come in the Kentucky Derby. Second of all, it’s shocking that the stalking/midpack runner raced on five closer-friendly tracks in a row between October and February, all while facing some of the best closers in the division. To summarize, all of his disappointing performances this year can either be excused because of a wide trip, an adverse bias, or both.
There’s a rule in horse racing (and elsewhere) that too many excuses make a norm, but fortunately, this horse has already shown that he’s capable of more. The G1 Arkansas Derby last time out was a long-awaited breakthrough. He still didn’t have everything his way, drawing another outside post and traveling four wide around both turns. He didn’t win either, as the monstrous Bob Baffert colt Muth was simply too much to handle. Still, he earned a 95 BSF and was the only horse besides the winner charging at the wire. At 32-1, he appeared at face value to be a random outsider punching up for place money, but he was a contender on the Oaklawn trail throughout the season and was vastly undervalued in the big prep. It was easily the best performance of his career and it came at 1 ⅛ miles, finally proving D. Wayne Lukas right for stretching him out in distance to start the year.
It could very well happen that Just Steel gets chased down by the closers again in the Kentucky Derby. He may not even figure in the result. Still, his tactical speed is an underrecognized asset in my opinion, and he has the sort of middle move that often puts horses in contention down the stretch at Churchill, where he’s won before. At 20-1 on the morning line, I think he fits better than he appears.
7- Honor Marie
He’s yet another closer with a legitimate chance, and his odds are far more attractive than his counterparts inside. He hasn’t managed to seal the deal in two tries this year, getting outkicked by Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom consistently. That’s why you’re going to get 20-1 on him, because it’s more than likely that those two are simply better from the back of the field. He does have a saving grace, however, as he really seemed to like Churchill Downs as a two-year-old, earning two nice wins from dead last. He has improved since then, so getting back to a comfortable track may put him on even terms with his favored foes.
8- Just a Touch
There’s nothing intrinsically wrong with this colt, as he’s taken a nice step forward in each of his first three career starts. The problem is that he seems to be coming along a little too fast; he wasn’t prepared for favoritism in the G3 Gotham in March and had to settle for runner-up money. He got back on a fast track in the G1 Blue Grass last time out and earned a 96 BSF, but he also seemed clearly overwhelmed by fellow runner Sierra Leone. Maybe he keeps moving forward with an extra furlong and some tactical speed in the Derby, but it would be nice to have a few more races to judge him on.
9- Encino (SCRATCHED)
My favorite thing about this horse was that he won the G3 Lexington, which is really waiting for the last minute to qualify for the Derby. Now he’s scratched though, so I no longer care for his chances here.
10- T O Password (Jpn)
It takes a pair that clangs to bring this horse to the Kentucky Derby from Japan with two career starts. He hasn’t even run around a left-handed track, meaning that he’s only competed while running clockwise. Based on his two wins in Japan (which took forever to find), he could figure as a pace presence in this field but can’t be trusted much further.
11- Forever Young (Jpn)
I thought Derma Sotogake was a really cool horse last year, and he no-showed the Derby and went on to finish second in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic. This colt is yet another Japanese contender that appears ready to make his case. After three straight wins as a juvenile in Japan, he has spent the last few months in the Middle East. His G2 UAE Derby win was extremely professional and confirms that he can handle this distance, but it’s possible that even more can be learned from his G3 Saudi Derby win. Prodigious American colt Book’em Danno seemed to all but put away that field going into th stretch, but Forever Young never gave in and finally chased him down in the final strides.
12- Track Phantom
It’s nice to get some certainty in a race like this. Barring a terrible break out of the gate, this colt is going to be flying for the lead, something he has done without exception in seven career starts. His blistering speed was overwhelming in lesser stakes races at shorter distances, but his last two efforts in the G2 Risen Star and G2 Louisiana Derby were less inspiring. He’s still a danger because of his dynamic speed, but he’s a little one-dimensional and hasn’t proven capable of holding on against stronger competition.
13- West Saratoga
Rich Strike got a nice win at Churchill Downs too, so I guess anything is possible. But if you have me the racing form for the 2022 Kentucky Derby and told me to pick again, I’m still not sure I’d pick Rich Strike. The fact of the matter is that this colt has not taken any appreciable step forward since winning the G3 Iroquois in September. Earning his best speed figure on the synthetic last time out makes him an even weirder fit here.
14- Endlessly
This colt’s pedigree screams turf, which makes it very concerning that he still hasn’t made a dirt start before the Kentucky Derby. After a very tidy juvenile season on the grass, culminating in a bit of a buzzsaw in a tough G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf field, he started 2024 on the synthetic and took a nice step forward. His last two wins in the El Camino Real Derby and G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks were very solid, if a step slow. Before Turfway Park’s big prep race was named after an idiotic meat advertisement, it was called the Spiral Stakes, and Animal Kingdom won it before switching to dirt and winning the Derby. That 2011 colt was one in a million though, giving Endlessly a lot to live up to. He’s clearly a very good horse, but he may not be in the right spot.
15- Domestic Product
After a surprising runner-up finish over Fierceness in the G3 Holy Bull, this Chad Brown trainee seemed well on his way to cobbling together a credible Derby resume. I have no idea what happened in the G3 Tampa Bay Derby though, where he won with a paltry 82 BSF and almost lost a photo to Grand Mo the First, who is *checks notes* completely useless. He got a little jostled, sure, but he had a rough trip when he beat Fierceness by 1 ½ lengths too. Tyler Gaffalione leaves to ride Sierra Leone, another Brown runner.
16- Grand Mo the First
He hasn’t won since September 2023. He hasn’t won beyond 5 ½ furlongs. He hasn’t won on dirt. He lost by 16 lengths to Fierceness in the G1 Florida Derby. You could make the argument that he could have won the G3 Tampa Bay Derby with a little more luck, but that prep race was so weak that the winner, Domestic Product, is 30-1 on the morning line. It is impossible to support this colt.
17- Fierceness
Let’s start with the good stuff. If this colt brings his A-game to Churchill on Saturday, he’s going to absolutely crush this field. His performances in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and G1 Florida Derby were absolutely brilliant and demonstrated a sort of power that is very rare to see in three-year-olds. But I can poke holes if I want to, because those winning performances were as awe-inspiring as his two career losses were inexcusable.
To lose the G1 Champagne and G3 Holy Bull would be acceptable for any horse, but Fierceness did not simply lose those two races as an overwhelming favorite. He completely folded. When he won the Juvenile and Florida Derby, he got the chance to cruise at or near the front of the pack. In the Champagne and Holy Bull, he had to overcome some trouble and responded terribly. From the 17 post, what kind of trip do you think he’ll get in the Derby?
If he was 8-1 on the morning line, this colt would have more than enough upside to bet confidently. As a 5-2 favorite in a field of this size, however, he has to be reliable, and he’s shown some serious lapses.
18- Stronghold
I like the way he won his only two starts in 2024, showing a lot of courage moving in between horses and responding to challenges gamely. The back-to-back 89 BSFs do seem to suggest that the West Coast Derby trail was a little weak this year. The outside post is a hindrance too, though he’s one to consider if you’re looking for a level headed type.
19- Resilience
This colt certainly has a knack for getting into a nice stalking position, but the G2 Risen Star is his only experience against serious three-year-olds and he failed that test. Making more or less the same move that he did to break his maiden and win the G2 Wood Memorial, he appeared really flat against the likes of Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom. Improvement needed, plain and simple.
20- Society Man
This colt took the long way around to breaking his maiden, taking a beating in the G3 Withers in February before notching his first win in March. He improved in the G2 Wood Memorial to take place money at 106-1 odds, but he’ll need a serious step forward to have a chance from this post here.
Also-Eligibles
21- Epic Ride
After starting his career with four starts on the synthetic at Turfway Park, this colt took a massive step up in class trying the dirt for the first time in the G1 Blue Grass. It would be easy to criticize his show finish by 5 ¼ lengths, but the truth is that he handled himself very well against better competition at 51-1 odds. This is a nightmare post position and he wouldn’t have much of a chance anyway, but there are worse horses to fill out this field.
22- Mugatu (SCRATCHED)
If not for a fifth-place finish at 181-1 in the G1 Blue Grass last time out, this colt wouldn’t even be allowed in the door at Churchill Downs. He hasn’t won a race since November, has never won on dirt and has spent most of his career in either maiden or optional claiming competition, earning one win in 12 starts. Not even close.
Order: 6 11 17 7
I don’t think I’m crazy for seeing a ton of upside in Real Steel. When I take long shots in these sorts of races, I usually have to talk myself into them or get excited about the idea of them winning. This guy just fits in this field. He may not be able to match a 110 BSF, but I don’t think that’s the realistic bar for this race. After competing honestly through some brutal racing luck for months, he finally got a half-decent chance in the G1 Arkansas Derby and fought to the wire with one of the best three-year-olds in the country. He’s been prepared for this race the old-school way and has had success at Churchill, making him an excellent option at a price.
This may be cheating a little, but Forever Young will also be earning a win bet from me, as I believe that the Japanese racing industry is due for a major American score and the UAE Derby curse is bound to end at some point. He hasn’t taken a single step out of place in five career starts and seems to be improving with more distance. He might need to improve slightly on his last start, but he should get the trip to do so.
Fierceness has the potential to be a truly generational talent, and I don’t wish to make too strong a case against his likely victory in this race. Still, he’s shown in a pair of bad losses that he may lack some maturity after five career starts. There are few worse feelings in racing than betting a quitter at a short price, and there are a lot of good horses in this race with far more attractive odds.
Honor Marie is more of a placeholder for three horses, along with Catching Freedom and Sierra Leone, that I’ve really struggled to draw lines between. All three deep closers seem to be on roughly the same page in my opinion. Sierra Leone is the best on paper, but Catching Freedom has been improving rapidly with each start and Honor Marie is an excellent value play due to his superior experience at Churchill Downs. Regardless of all of that though, it’s undeniable that this trio is more dependent on racing luck than any other horse in the field. All of them have a serious winning chance with the perfect trip, but that’s an impossible variable to project. Instead of choosing between them, I’ve decided to relegate them in favor of horses that will likely settle behind the leaders. What an imperfect science.
Nice job, Paddy !
Always interesting to read your articles and genius insight. Good luck to all and a great job again.