Happy Derby Eve everyone! Before we culminate our journey to the Kentucky Derby, it’s just as important to take a look at the Kentucky Oaks, especially this year’s running.
This year’s Oaks field is one of the most competitive that I’ve ever seen, to the point that at least four fillies could have easily been contenders in the Derby if they had chosen to run against the boys. Secret Oath, Nest, Echo Zulu and Kathleen O. are a stellar quartet, and any of them could win in a race that will likely take place in the rain and mud.
Though the Derby remains the feature on this spectacular weekend of racing, the Oaks may just be able to steal the show. Let’s take a look.
Churchill Downs, Race 11
Kentucky Oaks (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 5:51 p.m. EST
1- Secret Oath
Trainer D. Wayne Lukas said that she wasn’t going to run in the Kentucky Derby regardless of her performance in the Arkansas Derby, but the fact that he tried her against the boys at all speaks volumes. Though she finished third that day behind Derby contenders Cyberknife and Barber Road, she arguably made the best move of the race, flying into contention from last around the turn before tiring in the stretch. With a strong pace up front and a valuable prep at this distance, she may be dangerous.
2- Nostaglic
I don’t hate her performance in the G2 Gazelle last time out. She did get the perfect trip to beat Venti Valentine though, and the 86 BSF she earned at today’s distance isn’t close enough to win against a field of this caliber.
3- Hidden Connection
After losing to fellow runner Echo Zulu by 13 ½ lengths in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, this filly nearly turned the tables on her undefeated rival in the G2 Fair Grounds Oaks last time out. But she didn’t, and that’s an important distinction. Though she only lost to EZ by a nose, she also did it in her second start of the year, when she should have been much sharper than her foe coming off a winter layoff. I don’t expect her to be as close to the finish this time around.
4- Nest
I’m a little disappointed that she’s the morning line favorite, because she was my pick going into the post position draw. After crushing an ungraded stakes field to begin the season, she made her second start in the G1 Ashland and was similarly dominant. The field that day wasn’t very strong and there are questions about the 92 BSF she earned, but an 8 ½ length win always seems pretty convincing. With a lot of speed in the race, she’ll probably have to win from further off the pace than she typically does, but closers will likely benefit anyway.
5- Goddess of Fire
She’s clearly an effective runner and has performed in three straight starts this year while improving each time. But she hasn’t been able to win since her first start in August 2021, and has finished second behind fellow runners Turnerloose and Kathleen O. recently. She needs to take the next step forward.
6- Yuugiri
She’s never finished worse than third in five career starts, but there are some in this field that remain undefeated in roughly the same span. In two starts as a three-year-old, she hasn’t shown much development, though she did win on the front end in the G3 Honeybee last time out. Expect her to be a part of the pace presence early.
7- Echo Zulu
In most years, this undefeated champ would be an easy favorite, but a few questions about her form and a highly competitive field have relegated her to third choice on the morning line. In her only start this year, she barely hung on in the G2 Fair Grounds Oaks despite getting an uncontested lead. It seems very obvious that she’ll take a step forward in her second start off the layoff, but there may be problems in this start too. With fellow runners Yuugiri and Venti Valentine to her inside and outside and Turnerloose on the far outside, she’s going to need wings to get the easy lead she likes. Then there’s the distance, which wouldn’t be as much of an issue if she wasn’t looking at a pace duel. She’s a very easy horse to root for and the price seems right, but this is also the first time in her career that she actually has something to prove.
8- Venti Valentine
I can excuse her defeat as the favorite last time out in the G2 Gazelle, when she led every step of the way before fellow runners Nostaglic overtook her with a perfect rail trip. Whatever, it happens. My main problem with that race is that she should have done more with an easy lead through slow fractions. Her performance in the Busher Invitational was enlightening but she did it at a mile. She needs to show me more going the extra furlong.
9- Desert Dawn
I think she’s a fraudulent contender in this race. In the G2 Santa Anita Oaks, Adare Manor ran her heart out dueling on the front end but got sniped by this filly running a picture-perfect dream trip close behind. Even under optimal conditions, she still only earned an 87 BSF in victory. I’m tossing her because I don’t believe in her ability, even though she’s in line to get a similar trip here.
10- Kathleen O.
She’s great. There’s really not much else to say about her ability. As a dead closer, she’s made a mockery of every field she’s faced in Florida this year, winning all three of her stakes starts by 13 ¼ lengths combined. There is a slight issue: I don’t totally buy the 98 BSF she earned last time out in the G2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. The odds of her improving 13 points and fellow runner Goddess of Fire improving 14 points (to earn a 94) in the same race seems a little off. But everything else about her seems legit and she’s an obvious contender.
11- Cocktail Moments
She hasn’t won a race in stakes competition and hasn’t run a BSF over 80. She lost badly to fellow runners Kathleen O. and Nest in her last two starts.
12- Candy Raid
I loved her performance in the Bourbonette Oaks, when she rallied from last to win easily at 52-1 odds. But there are so many problems to consider this time around. Let’s start with some easy ones. Though she improved significantly to win that day, she still only earned an 83 BSF, which isn’t nearly good enough to win this race. She also did it on a synthetic track and has no proven dirt form at this level. She’s hard to trust.
13- Shahama
She’s the spoiler in the race. One of just three undefeated horses in the field, she’s won easily against the competition in Dubai in four starts since December. The move to Todd Pletcher’s barn for this race is also encouraging, as it demonstrates an earnest attempt to win in Kentucky. The layoff could either help or hurt her, as she’ll likely improve with maturation but may also be a little stiff after time off. The post doesn’t help her case either way.
14- Turnerloose
She’ll be a part of the pace presence flying in from the far outside, but her impact on the race thereafter will probably be minimal. In two starts on the dirt this year, she has not run well enough to make a convincing argument for competing in this race, despite a win in the G2 Rachel Alexandra against fellow runner Goddess of Fire.
Also-Eligible:
15- Beguine
She’s an interesting runner if she makes it in. I actually appreciated her runner-up performance last time out in the G3 Fantasy. The post will probably be an issue though.
Order: 4 7 1 13
I’m accounting for the likelihood that it rains in my final order, though I am doing this a few days in advance. I think Nest is in a spectacular position to win here, as a pace duel in the slop may hurt leaders and closers at the same time. If she can work out a trip midpack, she may be the one. I’m expecting a monster performance from Echo Zulu, but there’s so much going against her that I can’t really fathom how she can win, as much as I’d like to see it. Secret Oath is live, but I’m very concerned about the inside rail, especially in the rain. I’m taking a very big risk excluding Kathleen O. from my top four, but I’m choosing long shot Shahama to maintain some dignity.
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