I know what you’re all here for. At this point, I would usually take this opportunity to talk about the Kentucky Derby, its meaning to horse racing and its deep roots in American culture. But I’m approaching the end of another semester in college here, and to be honest, I’m a little fatigued.
After months of building up hype for Fordham Athletics, which I dutifully cover for The Fordham Observer, I’m finally covering an event that needs no introduction. This is the Kentucky Derby, the Run For The Roses, the Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports. To try to excite my audience about this race would be to pour a bucket of stagnant water into a river. So for once, I’m not going to wax poetic about the feats of Secretariat or Tom Durkin or Hunter S. Thompson. All that came yesterday. Now is the time to analyze some horses. Welcome back folks.
Race 12
Kentucky Derby (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/4 Miles on Dirt
1- Known Agenda
It’s a shame they couldn’t come up with a snappier name. This runner is clearly a contender based on a very solid effort in the G1 Florida Derby last time out. It took him some time to put the pieces together on the track, but his last two performances lived up to some lofty expectations early on in his career. That being said, his performance last time out at Gulfstream didn’t strike me as a particularly sharp performance, and the speed figure supports that. He picked up a good trip, and when Greatest Honour didn’t fire, he drove home well to win. But the only contender he had to deal with was fellow Derby runner Soup and Sandwich, who is a little lacking in experience and may have actually run the better race.
The rail draw is really tough in such a big field, and I think he’ll be a little overbet based on his past performances. Irad Ortiz and Todd Pletcher certainly know what they’re doing despite a lack of Derby success for the pair, but their reputations may only drive the colt’s price down further.
2- Like the King
Derby prep races at Turfway Park don’t often produce Derby winners (Lil E. Tee in 1992 and Animal Kingdom in 2011), but this runner didn’t exactly choose to run in those races, so I won’t hold it against him. In two races in 2021, he’s run well, overcoming minor troubles on both occasions and winning his most recent start in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks. In that race, however, I think he was the second best horse, as fellow Derby runner Sainthood had a nightmare trip but clearly outran him in second position. It’s obviously speculation on my part, but if he’s not truly superior to that long shot, then I struggle to see how he could ever outrun Essential Quality and others in here. The inside post position doesn’t help.
3- Brooklyn Strong
It took at least five withdrawals for this runner to sneak into the Derby field, but look, he made it! For the second year running, a NY-bred is in the Derby, but I highly doubt this one will fare as well as Tiz the Law. He did show some ability in the slop as a two-year-old in the G2 Remsen, crushing fellow Derby runner Known Agenda, but he took significant time off after that start and only reappeared in April for the G2 Wood Memorial. He appeared sluggish throughout in a thoroughly disappointing performance, and it’s hard to make a case for him to rebound on short notice.
4- Keepmeinmind
This colt displayed a good deal of potential as a two-year-old, but in two starts this year, he simply hasn’t shown significant development. He has been outrun on two straight occasions in situations where he could have done more, and I’ll be looking elsewhere for upset runners.
5- Sainthood
I’ll admit that I’m a little intrigued. This runner’s only start at anything near this level was in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks, which I’ve already deemed a lesser prep race at Turfway Park. But unlike fellow Derby runner King Fury, who defeated this colt in that contest, I don’t think we’ve seen this one’s best performance yet. In that race, he had a terrible trip in which he didn’t truly find space until late in the stretch and then came flying to nab second.
On his best day, is he better than some of the contenders in this race? I’m not sure, but he’s lightly raced and could take a step forward with added distance. The only problem is that his stakes debut was not his first experience finding trouble during a race. Horses that rack up excuses tend to continue finding them, but at 50-1, I’m curious to see what he can do from this favorable post position.
6- O Besos
Deep closers are hard to trust in the Derby, and this guy will definitely be near the rear of the field early on. He took a big step forward in the G2 Louisiana Derby last time out, earning a 96 BSF in the process, but I get the impression that a better horse could have done more with the favorable rail trip he found. A third place finish behind fellow Derby runners Hot Rod Charlie and Midnight Bourbon may be the best he’s capable of, especially considering that those two were on the front end for the entire race. If that race wasn’t good enough, he may just not have it. He could be in the mix for a minor prize, but I wouldn’t take him on top.
7- Mandaloun
Which version of this colt can we expect? His first start of 2021, a third place finish in the G3 Lecomte Stakes, was sluggish due to the winter layoff and an unfavorable pace scenario benefitting fellow Derby runner Midnight Bourbon. He proved himself next time out with a solid effort in the G2 Risen Star Stakes, in which the pace set up better for him and he took full advantage. With a 98 BSF under his belt, he simply had to maintain his form but instead came up empty in the G2 Louisiana Derby, finishing sixth behind three Kentucky Derby rivals. I wasn’t too impressed by his best performance back in March and his most recent start opens up a new line of questioning. Trainer Brad Cox, meanwhile, has been praising this colt but is clearly focused on his other horse in the race, Essential Quality.
8- Medina Spirit
Ah, now this one I’m scared of. He’s only 1-for-4 this year so far, but any analysis of those four races reveals how deceptive that statistic is. On two occasions, he finished second to fellow Bob Baffert trainee and Triple Crown hopeful Life Is Good, who would’ve been an overwhelming favorite in this race if not for an injury. His lone victory occurred between those two runner-up finishes and it was brilliant. Up against fellow Derby runner Hot Rod Charlie in the G3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, this colt ran two other front runners into the ground and still had enough left to duel with HRC and another talented closer in the stretch. It was arguably the best performance of any horse in this race this season, but it occurred back in January.
After his second loss to Life Is Good, he seemed prepared to take over as the best colt in California after his old foe’s injury. Instead, he was defeated handily again in the G1 Santa Anita Derby by newcomer Rock My World, and really should have shown more as runner-up. His early speed is scary to me because it may lead him to a perfect trip, but it’s never good to peak too early in the season, and he simply hasn’t shown the same ability stretching out in distance that he showed earlier this year. He’ll be in the mix, and while I’m extremely tempted to take him on top based on his previous form and Baffert’s unbelievable track record in these races, I may have to look elsewhere.
9- Hot Rod Charlie
You know when you can’t help but respect a horse? No? You’ve lived a normal life? Good for you. Anyway, I can’t help but appreciate this horse more with each start. No one saw him coming at 94-1 when he nearly knocked off fellow Derby runner Essential Quality in last year’s G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. It could have been a fluke, but he returned strong as a three-year-old in 2021 and has put in two very solid preps for the Derby.
In the G3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, he closed well but was squeezed in between horses against fellow runner Medina Spirit, who ran too well to lose that day. It was a great freshener off a layoff and prepared him well for the G2 Louisiana Derby, where he wired the field despite being pushed along by fellow runner Midnight Bourbon. The 99 BSF he earned that day makes him a very solid contender here, and he has demonstrated versatility by turned in good showings with a variety of running styles. The only knock against him is the departure of jockey Joel Rosario, who will leave to ride Rock Your World.
10- Midnight Bourbon
I have my questions about him, but there’s a lot to like with this determined runner. His first race of 2021 is also his only victory of the season, when he got an uncontested lead in the G3 Lecomte Stakes and easily wired the field. His speed figures have improved in two starts since, but on both occasions, he had to fight for the lead and subsequently gave in to take minor prizes, losing to fellow Derby runners Mandaloun and Hot Rod Charlie. If he could figure out how to come from off the pace, he could be incredibly dangerous here, but he should figure it out quickly. The addition of Mike Smith is a fantastic jockey upgrade and Steve Asmussen is one of the best trainers around, so I wouldn’t rule him out entirely given his natural ability.
11- Dynamic One
It clearly took this colt a while to put the pieces together after four tries against maidens, but he’s really put in some nice runs recently. His (overdue) maiden score was a much improved showing that should have hinted at further improvement in the G2 Wood Memorial. I didn’t see it at the time, but his runner-up finish at 15-1 makes sense looking back at that weak field. If not for a wild closing finish by fellow Derby runner Bourbonic, he would’ve won the race and certainly ran well enough to deserve it. My only concern is that the Wood isn’t a viable prep race this year for legitimate Derby contenders. The 89 BSF he earned is the highest speed figure of his career, but doesn’t come close to some of the others in here. He’ll likely be overmatched.
12- Helium
Here’s my longshot candidate, though you’ll have to hear me out. Let’s get the knocks out of the way first. No horse in the last 30 years (pre-pandemic) has won the Kentucky Derby off a two-month layoff. It’s not something that happens. Most Derby horses typically run in late March or April, which the connections elected not to do with this colt. He last raced on March 3 in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby, which is a subpar stakes race that’s only produced two Kentucky Derby winners in its entire history (Street Sense in 2007 and Super Saver in 2010). The 84 speed figure he earned that day is paltry in comparison to others in here, as he’ll likely need a 100 or more to win again. These are all compelling reasons for his 50-1 odds, but I think there’s more to like here.
It’s not everyday that a bettor gets 50-1 odds on an undefeated colt; in fact, I don’t think I’ve ever seen it before. After two very successful starts on the synthetic track at Woodbine as a two-year-old, he returned to action in March in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby. Coming off a five-month layoff, he traveled wide all the way around the track but launched a strong bid to take the lead into the stretch. He had every excuse to give in when fellow Derby runner Hidden Stash ran at him late, but he repelled his foe’s bid and won in extremely impressive fashion from a visual standpoint.
The race demonstrated three things: he clearly wants to win, he can handle two turns and he can fire fresh after time off. The 84 BSF he earned that day was very slow, but I have a pet theory that it’s a deceptive stat. In late February and early March, half of this field was running figures in the 70s and 80s. The only difference between Helium and those runners is that they’ve run since and many of them have demonstrated improvement. His absence from the track doesn’t mean he hasn’t matured like the rest of the field in the past two months; fans simply haven’t had the chance to track his progress. Gambling on multiple unknown factors obviously involves risk, but the horse is honest and the odds should compensate appropriately. He has done everything that has been asked of him thus far.
13- Hidden Stash
This colt’s performance in the G2 Blue Grass Stakes makes me vaguely concerned about my long shot above. In the G2 Tampa Bay Derby in March, he gave fellow Derby runner Helium everything he could handle, and in April, he got crushed by Essential Quality and Highly Motivated. Some of that may be related to a speed-friendly track, but he ran a near-identical speed figure in two very different performances. While I’m betting on improvement from Helium, this runner has demonstrated very little and doesn’t figure as a contender.
14- Essential Quality
He’s the epitome of class. Without overwhelming his opponents, he has also never failed a test in five starts. There’s very little to say about him; he’s a highly qualified favorite that has already beaten many of the contenders in this race, namely Hot Rod Charlie and Highly Motivated. He seems just vulnerable enough to bet against, which makes sense. He seems to benefit from perfect trips constantly; he closes on tracks that happen to be friendly to closers and he’s near the front when the track is fast. That may seem like an exploitable form of luck, but there’s no doubt in my mind that he’ll find a suitable trip in the Derby as well. The only way he’ll lose is if someone beats him. I’ll try, but I don’t expect him to do his opponents any favors.
15- Rock Your World
If you’re playing the Kentucky Derby based on historical trends, this is your pick. Front running horses based in California or Florida have won every Kentucky Derby since 2014 (Authentic, Maximum Security before DQ, Justify, Always Dreaming, Nyquist, American Pharoah, California Chrome), and this colt and Medina Spirit are the two likeliest candidates to continue that trend. After two impressive turf starts, he ran in the G1 Santa Anita Derby, and in a surprise to many, he outsprinted MS for the early lead and kept it all the way around the track.
His wire-to-wire dirt debut earned him the only triple-digit BSF in the Derby field this year. There’s a reasonable chance that the Kentucky Derby can set up similarly, as he has the speed to take command and Medina Spirit will likely chase closely behind again. Something in the back of my mind is telling me he won’t be as intent to take the lead this time around, but if he can handle the added distance and the quick turnaround, he’s a likely winner here. It’s important to note that Joel Rosario chose to ride this horse instead of Hot Rod Charlie, a very telling decision between two of the top contenders.
16- King Fury (SCR)
This runner was withdrawn from the race on Friday due to illness. I think his absence from the event will hurt his chances.
17- Highly Motivated
No colt has come closer to defeating Essential Quality than this one. After a very successful two-year-old campaign, he reappeared at Aqueduct for the G3 Gotham Stakes in March, where he was forced to steady early and was generally a little flat. He clearly needed the freshener and improved immensely in the G2 Blue Grass Stakes, as he nearly wired the field and only gave in to Essential Quality in the final strides.
The track that day may have favored early speed types and it’s unlikely that he’ll manage to work out the same trip again with a pair of California speedsters in the field this time around. He’s definitely a talented colt, but I’ll be looking elsewhere for the top spot. It’s also important to note that no horse has ever won the Derby with the number 17 on its back.
18- Super Stock
This colt’s last start was a textbook horse racing upset. The two favorites in the G1 Arkansas Derby hooked up in a deadly speed duel, and when both tired in the stretch, the 12-1 long shot closed down the center of the track to qualify for the Run for the Roses. It’s possible that something like that could happen again, but unlike that race, it’s more than likely that several runners in here would capitalize on the opportunity. Super Stock wouldn’t be alone this time, and from this far outside post, he’ll need some racing luck to take full advantage.
19- Soup and Sandwich
I dig this horse, and his name is second to none. He’s a little light on experience, having only run in one stakes race in three career starts. But in the G1 Florida Derby against fellow Derby runner Known Agenda, I think he may have run a slightly more impressive race in context despite finishing second. He knows where he is and obviously likes to be near the front, but this post position is a nightmare for any horse. After debuting just three months ago, it may be a little too much to expect him to overcome the odds here. Keep an eye on him in the future.
20- Bourbonic
The G2 Wood Memorial was a pretty weak prep race this year, but this colt won it at 73-1 odds. Crazy, right? He lost an allowance race at Parx a month prior, but he appeared to be a different horse flying home at Aqueduct in early April. I’m not really sure how to assess that race because he closed into some very slow fractions, but it doesn’t appear that his performance is all that impressive in relation to other runners here. I’m going to play it safe and look elsewhere, because he’ll need a good deal of luck from the far outside post to have a chance here anyway.
Order: 15 12 14 8 10
I’m stumped here. This is a wide open field, and narrowing it down to five horses was tough enough. I believe that any of the horses in my top four can win this race, and I wouldn’t be shocked if a few others came along and proved me wrong. I’m going to give Rock Your World the slightest edge here and take him to win it all. His run in the G1 Santa Anita Derby was exceptional, and Joel Rosario’s decision to take the mount speaks volumes about his potential. It may be more difficult for him here than it was in California, but he’s already demonstrated the ability to beat every horse in this field.
At this point, I want to make something clear, so listen up. I will absolutely be putting money on Helium in a second win bet. I love this colt, and the only thing keeping me from putting him on top is a small sliver of common sense left in me after weeks of studying this race. He’s a gamer that may be way better than he appears on paper.
I have no doubts that Essential Quality will perform well as the favorite, and I have nothing but respect for him, but I do think he’s beatable at 2-1. This is a game of value, and betting on him to win in this wide open field is as foolish as leaving him out of exotic bets.
Medina Spirit scares me deeply, as I feel he may have more of a say in this race than any other competitor. Baffert continually talks down his own colt, but he’s shown some really special ability at certain points this year. I wouldn’t leave him out entirely, and if the price is right, a small win bet may even be worthwhile.
Midnight Bourbon doesn’t look poised to win, but the horse seems to continue moving forward as the competition gets stiffer. I wouldn’t be shocked if he was in the mix late. Hot Rod Charlie and Sainthood are unfortunate casualties as the last two entries I eliminated, but they both have different issues that prevent me from considering them to win.
Amazing article Patrick! I throughly enjoyed reading it!! My novice pick is Soup and Sandwich. I usually pick my Derby choice by name and this is a goodie. I dig it too!