The 2021 running of the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes will be about as good as it can get without including a Triple Crown race winner. The connections of Medina Spirit, Rombauer, and Essential Quality have all decided to forgo the July feature at Monmouth, but several highly talented runners do more than enough to strengthen the field.
Where the Triple Crown winners are absent, the runner-ups are all in attendance. Hot Rod Charlie will go off as the likely favorite after a stunning place finish in the G1 Belmont Stakes. Meanwhile, Mandaloun (the potential Derby winner in time) and Midnight Bourbon round out a formidable group of familiar faces. Meanwhile, newcomer Following Sea is an interesting outsider stretching out for Todd Pletcher after a pair of blowout wins in sprints.
Beyond that quartet of contenders, a trio of comically overmatched long shots are in the race to make it appear legitimate. For reference, the gap in last-time-out Beyer Speed Figures between the fastest and slowest horse going into the Kentucky Derby was 27 points (100 for Rock Your World in the G1 Santa Anita Derby, 73 for Keepmeinmind in the G2 Blue Grass). The gap between the best and worst last-time-out speed figures in the Haskell, a considerably smaller race, is 65 points (108 for Hot Rod Charlie in the G1 Belmont, 43 for Pickin’ Time in the New Jersey Derby).
The winner of this race isn’t guaranteed to take over the division, as the G1 Travers in August will certainly prove to be more significant to voters at the end of the year. But it’s an extremely important race for three-year-olds nonetheless, won by the likes of American Pharoah in 2015 and Rachel Alexandra in 2009. Will the 2021 running yield another such champion?
Race 12 (FULL ANALYSIS)
Haskell Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/8 Miles on the Dirt
1- Following Sea
Of all the outsiders in this race, this colt stretching out for Todd Pletcher is emphatically the most promising. “Previously trained by Bob Baffert” is quickly becoming my favorite tagline in the sport, as this runner managed to make a seamless transition to his new home at Belmont Park with a convincing allowance victory last time out. He earned a 100 BSF that day, putting him squarely in the mix here, and his early speed will almost certainly earn him a front running position this time around breaking from the rail position. The one question is distance, as neither Baffert nor Pletcher has ever tried to test him beyond six and a half furlongs. His first try at a route will come against some of the best three-year-olds in the country, and I would have liked to see a more useful prep going into this event. Pletcher thinks he can handle it, however, and his odds will likely be reasonable in the presence of more well known runners. The wild card.
2- Antigravity
After 11 tries at five different tracks, this colt finally broke his maiden at Monmouth two starts back for Jerry Hollendorfer. As is often the case, he won again in his first start against winners, a clear sign that he has finally figured out the objective of racing. That’s encouraging, but my optimism for this runner ends there. His speed figures are nowhere near competitive enough to suggest he can run against colts of this caliber, and his recent form at Monmouth will only return when he finds softer fields. The fact that he’s slow should be reason enough to toss him, but Paco Lopez’s choice to ride Midnight Bourbon over this runner is also telling.
3- Mandaloun
The rightful winner of the Kentucky Derby is a really weird horse. In some races this year, like the G2 Risen Star, this colt has appeared unbeatable, but on other days he has been hopeless. He was 4-5 when he lost to fellow runner Midnight Bourbon in the G3 Lecomte, and the G2 Louisiana Derby was an unmitigated disaster that caused his Kentucky Derby odds to soar. But then he arrived at Churchill and outkicked Hot Rod Charlie and Essential Quality, seeming to live up to every expectation set for him at the beginning of the year. In his most recent start, a prep for the Haskell called the Pegasus Stakes, he won but ran yet another weird race, earning a relatively non-competitive 94 BSF in the process. So which Mandaloun are we going to get here? He could easily rebound with another solid performance, and he has proven that he has the raw ability to win a race at this level. I just can’t trust him completely.
4- Hot Rod Charlie
If the world of horse racing is just, this colt will finally get the big win he so sorely deserves here. As a two-year-old, he shocked all the experts with a 94-1 runner-up finish behind Essential Quality in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He returned as a three-year-old with an extremely game effort in defeat behind Medina Spirit in the G3 Robert B. Lewis, and finally earned his first stakes win next time out in a wire-to-wire performance in the G2 Louisiana Derby. He overcame traffic to run well in the Kentucky Derby but fell short again, finishing third but setting up well for his magnum opus to date.
In my opinion, Charlie’s performance in the G1 Belmont Stakes was not only his best, but the best performance by any three-year-old since Arrogate. And he lost. He established an early lead dueling with Rock Your World and ran the fastest Belmont half mile since Secretariat’s in 1973. Rock Your World withered away in the late stages after virtually sprinting the first two legs of a marathon, but Charlie was game to the end, even as Essential Quality, the top 3YO in the country, loomed on his outside. E.Q. found himself yet another golden trip, but it took everything he had to get around Charlie, who only lost by a little more than a length in the end. He earned a 108 BSF, the second best speed figure for a three-year-old this year (Essential Quality earned a 109). For comparison, the speed figure he earned would have been good enough to defeat every Belmont Stakes winner from 2004 to 2020. In theory, American Pharoah would have been denied the Triple Crown if Charlie had been born in 2012. He has to be the pick. Right?
5- Pickin’ Time
Remember all those really impressive stats I just gave about Hot Rod Charlie? If Pickin’ Time ran in the 2021 Kentucky Derby like he did in the Jersey Derby last time out, he would have finished 29 lengths behind Mandaloun and Hot Rod Charlie. If he had been born in 2012, American Pharoah still would have won the Triple Crown.
6- Midnight Bourbon
This colt is a highly respectable gamer, but he always seems to be a little behind the curve. After an impressive, if logical, wire-to-wire victory over fellow runner Mandaloun back in January, he has picked up nothing more than minor checks in very big races. His last start in the G1 Preakness was very impressive, as he outdueled Medina Spirit before conceding the lead to Rombauer in the stretch and settling for second. He can certainly take a step forward off a performance like that, but I don’t believe it’s a coincidence that his strongest performance came in the weakest of the three Triple Crown races. Again, development in three-year-olds happens all the time, but the best I can expect is for him to compete for a minor prize again.
7- Basso
This colt lost to fellow runner Antigravity by nearly 10 lengths last time out. If readers will recall, I didn’t really care for that runner, which makes this one… an outside outsider? An also-ran to an also-ran? The best part about this runner is that Basso is running for trainer Gregory Sacco, which has a nice ring to it. Basso and Sacco, the dream team.
Order: 4 3 1 6
A cynical handicapper might suggest that Hot Rod Charlie has a losing habit that’s a little familiar at this point, and I agree that he’s overbet at 6-5. But even on my coldest days as an analyst of this sport, I still can’t help but get caught up in the truly great stories lying in wait behind the rows and rows of numbers in the Daily Racing Form. This horse deserves to be great; he’s already run too well to be denied before. The sport of racing prospers in the presence of heroes, at the expense of bettors. I don’t stand to make a significant profit by selecting Charlie to win the Haskell, but there’s no other runner I would rather see in front at the wire.
Underneath, I believe we’re going to see the good version of Mandaloun in the Haskell, as he tends to show up in big spots. If he needs anything close to a 108 BSF to win, however, I struggle to see him or anyone else in the winner’s circle. I’m choosing to buy into Following Sea a little on the basis that Todd Pletcher knows what he’s dealing with. The colt will almost certainly get the early lead and the winner will have to chase him down to win, which isn’t always an easy feat. Midnight Bourbon rounds out my top four as a consistently earnest type of runner.
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