The Belmont Stakes is returning to 12 furlongs as God intended. The field for this year’s Test of Champions is wanting in size but not in talent, as several top runners from this year’s Triple Crown return to lock horns at a new and unfamiliar distance. When Sir Winston defeated Tacitus in the 2019 Belmont, I felt all-knowing, and when Tapwrit won in 2017, I felt hopelessly lost. Let’s see where I find myself this year handling this top-notch field:
Race 11
Belmont Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/2 Miles on the Dirt
1- Bourbonic
His upset victory in the G2 Wood Memorial is no less entertaining to watch, but the Kentucky Derby seemed to validate my suspicions that it was a subpar prep race. He didn’t run poorly but never challenged in any meaningful way against fellow runners Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie. He will probably manage the distance well, but I’m not sure that’s enough in this spot.
2- Essential Quality
He’s a dangerous favorite. After a string of victories earned under perfect conditions, the question regarding this colt was how he would respond to trouble. In the Kentucky Derby, he broke poorly from the gate and was wide all the way around the track. He hung in the stretch and went on to finish fourth, but he wasn’t the only one to do so in a carousel race, and his speed figure improved despite the tough trip. Brad Cox made the right decision to skip the Preakness in preparation for this race, and I believe that he can handle the added distance as many other Tapit colts have in the past. In a more traditional race with less trouble at the start, a big rebound performance may be in the cards.
3- Rombauer
This colt looked like a different animal when he dusted Midnight Bourbon and Medina Spirit in the Preakness Stakes last time out. The 102 BSF he earned that day puts him on equal footing with many of the other contenders in this race, but I do have my questions. He benefited heavily from a favorable setup in that race, and my instincts tell me that this situation isn’t optimal for his progression. Improving dramatically and then stretching out to a new distance seems like the perfect recipe for a bounce race, and there are some well-rested competitors to give him more trouble this time around regardless. He may be overvalued.
4- Hot Rod Charlie
I respect this runner immensely. He may not reach the winner’s circle often enough, but he has invariably made a good showing at every turn since his upset place finish in the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. His third place finish in the Kentucky Derby was solid and set him up well for the rest of the season, and Doug O’Neill’s decision to skip the Preakness was probably better for this start. The race may come down to whether or not he goes out for the early lead with Rock Your World, though I believe that angle is being overstressed in other analyses of this race. I expect a solid performance with any running style.
5- France Go De Ina
His performance in the Preakness Stakes was strange and ultimately underwhelming. He was trounced by Rebel’s Romance in the U.A.E. Derby two back, a colt I was strongly considering to upset this field until he withdrew with a ligament infection. This one doesn’t have the same appeal.
6- Known Agenda
I’m a little nervous about this one. His performance in the Florida Derby is still his best start to date, and the 94 BSF he earned that day is paltry in comparison to others here. That being said, I think he’s capable of more and couldn’t show it in the Kentucky Derby, when he broke from the far inside post and got swallowed up going into the first turn. He’s a powerful runner that could thrive over longer distances as well. I’ll be disappointed if he beats me here, but I won’t be shocked.
7- Rock Your World
My Kentucky Derby this year ended five seconds in when my pick here got crushed right out of the gate. No horse in the race had a worse break, and for a horse that has succeeded on the front end, it was particularly detrimental. If he can run back to his performance in the Santa Anita Derby, when he defeated Medina Spirit handily with a 100 BSF, he’ll be dangerous here. But there’s something giving me pause this time around. It may be the distance or Belmont dirt, but I get the impression that he may not be as effective this time around. He could very well wire this field, as I’ve bet on him to do in the past, but these types don’t always have as much luck in New York.
8- Overtook
This colt doesn’t appear strong enough to compete at this level.
Order: 2 7 4 6
If Essential Quality isn’t as strong as I think he is, then this race becomes a wide open affair. The Brad Cox trainee stepped up in class, added distance, had some tough racing luck and delivered the fastest performance of his career. He’s had rest since and should take another step forward with the sort of trip he’s used to running. Splitting hairs between Rock Your World and Hot Rod Charlie was tricky, and I’ll likely use both in my exotic bets. Rock Your World has a higher ceiling but also a far lower floor, while Hot Rod Charlie is always a safe bet for a good, if not menacing, run in the money. Known Agenda is probably better than he appears on paper, which makes him a little scary as Todd Pletcher’s most likely winner of three horses.
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