On the Derby Trail: Saturday, March 6, 2021

What better way to unwind from a chaotic writing schedule than to write for fun? After several months of fervent sports coverage for The Fordham Observer, I recently managed to find a sliver of time this weekend to return to Paddy’s Picks. In the span of one hour this evening, three prep races for the Kentucky Derby will be run at three different tracks across the country, and I’ve taken the time to analyze all three.

Looking at the trio of races, the only definitive conclusion that a handicapper should make is that dirt racing at Tampa Bay Downs is a step below the other winter tracks. But the fields and prices are bigger there, which is a different kind of fun. Between the G3 Gotham, G3 Tampa Bay Derby and G2 San Felipe, several talented runners will take one step closer on their path to the Kentucky Derby.

Side note: I really love that Derby contenders now have to race Lasix-free. For a sport trying to fix its image, removing the glaring L from every entrant in the Racing Form eases the conscience ever so slightly, and the paranoia surrounding doping is all implied now. They’re not rubbing our faces in it anymore.

Aqueduct

Race 9

Gotham Stakes (G3) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 Mile on the Dirt

Post Time: 5:07 EST

I wasn’t expecting much from one of my hometown tracks, but the field for this year’s Gotham is actually very intriguing. Some of the best runners in New York will take on a pair of California invaders in preparation for the G1 Wood Memorial next month. There’s a lot to like here, and while the New York circuit of three-year-olds isn’t quite as strong as those of Kentucky and California, there is still plenty of talent on display. My top five:

3- Highly Motivated

Last time spectators saw this runner, he was competing in the Nyquist Stakes on the Breeders’ Cup Friday undercard. Chad Brown elected to keep him at a sprint distance instead of stretching him out for the BC Juvenile, and at six and a half furlongs, he romped home to win by four lengths with a 96 BSF. It was the highest figure any two-year-old ran on that entire card, and in his three-year-old debut, Brown is no longer afraid to try some added distance.

I do have some questions regarding the layoff and distance, but the fact of the matter is that this colt seems well-placed by Brown in both respects. This is a manageable field at a manageable distance, and Javier Castellano will make a rare appearance at Aqueduct to ride. Baffert and O’Neill will try to challenge him with California shippers, but I believe the added early speed will only benefit his stalking style. He’s a hard one to knock.

5- Crowded Trade

Man, do I like this colt. It’s extremely tempting for me to put him on top, but the fact that he shares the same silks and trainer as fellow runner Highly Motivated is enough for me to fade him. But you won’t need to dare me to put a few bucks on him. Don’t tempt me, I’ll do it, and I’ll take this whole place down with me.

In his first and only race, he broke extremely slowly and spotted the leaders nearly eight lengths at the start. By the end, he had collared Rudy Rodriguez trainee Hyperactive Chris, who in turn fought valiantly to demolish the rest of the field by nearly nine lengths. He earned an 83 BSF that day, which is impressive considering the poor start from the gate. Jockey Eric Cancel may scare some bettors, and for good reason, but at the Aqueduct winter meet, he’s actually outperformed previous rider Manny Franco. In addition, Brown may not use Cancel often, but he hasn’t been afraid to give him some live mounts in the past. This runner may need a race at this caliber before he can truly compete, but I’m enthusiastic about his chances going forward. 

7- Freedom Fighter

Bob Baffert at Aqueduct looks weird, right? And with Manny Franco riding? Well don’t worry, it’s all throwing me for a loop too. You’re not going nuts, unless I’m also going nuts, in which case we’re both going nuts. We should find a third guy and check with him.

Anyway, I have this colt third for a few reasons. I’ve already mentioned that I really like fellow runner Crowded Trade, and while I can’t necessarily visualize a Brown 1-2 finish in my head, I want it on the record that I think highly of his secondary entry. I also have a few issues with this runner. I’m not questioning his performance in the G2 San Vicente; that was a superb effort that qualifies him as a top-tier colt on the Derby Trail. 

My issue arose when I tried to get in Baffert’s head. He had three horses that were qualified to run in the G2 San Felipe at Santa Anita today, but it made sense for him to enter two and ship the other. This one may have simply drawn the short straw, but I have to wonder if we’re going to see the best this colt has to offer as a result. Brown has his two best three-year-olds locked and loaded here, and their main competitor is Baffert’s third stringer. He can still win, but with a good deal of early speed in the race, I have to wonder if it simply sets up too well for the Brown contingent.

4- Wipe the Slate

His maiden victory at Santa Anita was impressive, but his most recent start barely registered. Dueling against Baffert trainee Medina Spirit, this colt had his doors blown off, fading badly to finish last by 20 lengths. This could also be another case of deceptive California shipping, as trainer Doug O’Neill also has a runner in the G2 San Felipe and probably didn’t want to compete against himself. I don’t believe this colt is as bad as his last performance, but he’ll need to improve, and a potential duel up front may not benefit him in any case.

6- Capo Kane

If the Aqueduct circuit was less competitive, this colt would be in an excellent position for this race. He’s clearly built for a mile, as he demonstrated when crushing a weaker field in the Jerome two starts back. His most recent performance in the G3 Withers was solid, but he did concede late to a pair of runners that would likely be overwhelmed in this spot. He’s an outside contender, but I question his ability to sufficiently improve.

Order: 3 5 7 4 6

I’d like to go against Highly Motivated, but I happen to think his toughest competitor is his stablemate Crowded Trade, which makes a defeat unlikely. Freedom Fighter could very well defy my expectations and run just as well as he did last time out, but I see enough going wrong at short odds to place him third. Wipe the Slate is better than Capo Kane on his best day, but I don’t believe either horse is of the same quality as the top three.

Tampa Bay Downs

Race 11

Tampa Bay Derby (G2) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt

Post Time: 5:25 EST

This is by far the weakest of the three prep races, which readers may be able to tell by the fact that Florida trainer Saffie Joseph has three runners in the race. I believe that most of the best Derby hopefuls in Florida are based at Gulfstream, but this all matters very little to bettors. It’s a 12-horse field with a lot of moving parts, which means there may be some money to be made. My top five:

8- Hidden Stash

In his 2021 debut, this colt closed ground late but could catch fellow runner Candy Man Rocket, finishing third in the G3 Sam F. Davis. I don’t believe we’re looking at the Kentucky Derby winner here, but I do think there’s room to improve. This race has a significant amount of early speed, which could set up well for this closer in his second start off the layoff. He’s an interesting value play in a relatively unremarkable field.

3- Candy Man Rocket

He’s certainly the best in this field on paper, but the Road to the Kentucky Derby seldom starts in Tampa Bay. This runner broke his maiden in impressive fashion back in January and made it two in a row with a perfect trip in the G3 Sam F. Davis. It’s not likely that he’ll take a step backwards in form, but unlike fellow runner Hidden Stash, I don’t see much room for improvement. I’m more than willing to take a shot against him.

2- Super Strong

Everyone loves a wild card. There’s not much to go on with this runner, who made his only start as a two-year-old at Camarero in Puerto Rico. But I’m inclined to believe that the race he competed in was competitive, and he won it in visually impressive fashion. Trainer Saffie Joseph has been next to useless at this meet, but jockey Antonio Gallardo has been untouchable. The colt is an interesting value play with upside. 

11- Promise Keeper

He was trounced by fellow runner Candy Man Rocket in his debut, but returned strong to win his second start in easy fashion. That race took place on a wet track at Gulfstream, but there is a chance of showers in Tampa Bay this afternoon as well. I don’t get the impression that Todd Pletcher and Luis Saez are messing around here, and 8-1 odds are very tempting considering the connections. My only concern is that the far outside post will force him to duel in the 2- or 3-path early, which could seriously hinder his chances.

10- Helium

Woodbine is such a strange track to evaluate in the world of handicapping. The entire place seems to be three steps down in class from any major track in the U.S., but every now and again, a freak comes off the synthetic and punishes me for immediately tossing them. As a two-year-old, this colt easily won two races up in Canada, and this is a fairly ambitious placement by trainer Mark Casse off a long layoff. I would keep an eye on him.

Order: 8 3 2 11 10

I’d love to get more creative, but I think this contest comes down to the two most qualified runners on paper. That being said, I think Hidden Stash will edge out Candy Man Rocket in his second start off the layoff. Super Strong is admittedly a little silly, but I’m too curious to ignore him, even though Promise Keeper is a more legitimate option. Helium is another confusing runner that I feel uncomfortable tossing completely.

Santa Anita

Race 6

San Felipe Stakes (G2) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt

Post Time: 5:45 EST

With the exception of Gotham entrant Highly Motivated, this race has the four strongest competitors of any of the Derby prep races being run today. Any of these four horses would be heavy favorites at Tampa Bay Downs, which demonstrates the quality of racing currently on display in California. In the face of a very obvious favorite, I’m electing to go fishing for a price with a runner I’ve grown fond of in recent weeks. My top four:

2- Dream Shake

I’m a sucker for a big sweeping move on the turn, and in this colt’s debut, he executed the move perfectly. At 20-1 odds for Peter Eurton, he more closely resembled a 4-5 shot, circling the field with condescending ease and powering away in the stretch. A 96 BSF on debut is nothing to sniff at, but I was even more impressed by his performance visually. 

Joel Rosario stays aboard, and I don’t think Eurton would stretch him out in distance unless he was sure he could handle it. When I first watched the replay of this colt’s only race, I was prepared to crown a Kentucky Derby winner. I’ve obviously calmed down a little since, but I’m still willing to take a shot with him against one of the best three-year-olds in the country. He’s earned a fan.

1- Life Is Good

I’m not sure why I was so vague with that “one of the best three-year-olds” line a few seconds ago, because I’m about to talk about him right now. We here at Paddy’s Picks have not yet mastered the art of suspense.

He’s excellent, and there’s not much else to say. He was dominant in his debut, and I think his victory over fellow runner Medina Spirit in the G3 Sham was deceptively close. Last year, many readers will remember when Mike Smith geared down Authentic in the G1 Haskell Invitational and nearly allowed Ny Traffic to steal the win. It turned out that the future Horse of the Year was just a little bit faster than Ny Traffic later on, and I think something similar may play out between this colt and Medina Spirit. I can’t help but pick a spoiler on top, but this colt is first class.

3- Medina Spirit

His loss to Life Is Good two starts back shouldn’t detract from the fact that he put together two very impressive races in January. After chasing his stablemate in vain in the G3 Sham, he drove two fellow early speed runners into the ground before holding off some very talented closers to win the G2 Robert B. Lewis. He’s an extremely qualified contender, and as I’m writing this, I’m very tempted to say that he may just be able to turn the tables on Baffert’s other runner coming off a layoff. But with a good deal of speed in the race, I’m concerned that he may find himself chasing again.

5- The Great One

I was actually more impressed with this colt’s runner-up finish in the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity than I was with his most recent romp in maiden competition. Anyone who watched the race back in December could have predicted future development, as he remained extremely stubborn on the front end and lost a bob at the wire by a hair. He came back this year to finally break his maiden by 14 lengths, and is now poised to make some noise on the Derby Trail. He may need to get away from stacked fields like these to make it to Kentucky, but I’m not ruling out a strong showing.

Order: 2 1 3 5

Dream Shake is not the best horse on paper, but for my money, there isn’t a single colt in this race with a more impressive debut. He’ll have to come along quickly, but I think he has the raw talent to take on Life Is Good in the stretch and win. Medina Spirit is an excellent runner that could very well emerge from the shadows, and The Great One could make some noise as well. I’m really excited for this one.