First and foremost, I would like to apologize to anyone who had to read my Kentucky Derby analysis (special shoutout to Chris Reynolds), but the good thing about hitting rock bottom is that there is nowhere else to go but up. Here is my analysis of the Preakness where I hope to have some more luck today. Good luck to everyone and happy betting. 🙂
1- Ram
This horse is a little rough. It is not an encouraging sign that Irad Ortiz jumped off of this horse to ride the 5, Midnight Bourbon, and was replaced by an inferior jockey, Santana. I am also not overly fond of trainer D. Wayne Lukas. While this horse has done well in his last two races, his speed figures are terrible, with his highest being an 81, which will not cut it. Overall, I don’t think that this horse is going to win the race today.
2- Keepmeinmind
Here is a horse that if I remember correctly, I didn’t have a whole lot of nice things to say about in the Kentucky Derby. I have to say that I am leaning towards sticking with my original analysis. Cohen on this horse isn’t my favorite, but I do admit that I don’t mind Robertino Diodoro as the trainer. This horse also did surpass my expectations in the Kentucky Derby by finishing 7th with a 90 speed figure, but I still don’t think this horse will do much in the Preakness. I also think it is noteworthy that this horse has previously lost to Concert Tour, which shows that there are other horses in the race that are capable of once again beating this horse. Overall, not a fan.
3- Medina Spirit
Personally, I do not believe that this horse should be in the race at all. A horse that has been caught cheating in the Kentucky Derby has no right to be in the Preakness, and because of this, I will not be analyzing this horse. If you really want my opinion that bad. you can check what I said about him in my analysis of the Kentucky Derby. It is a fact that this horse and his trainer cheated in the Kentucky Derby, and just because Bob Baffert says that he did not, the horse is somehow allowed to race. It is completely unfair to the other horses in the race, and it is spitting on the sanctity of the race. As my Grandpa John used to say, it is B.S.: beyond silly. Since this is my analysis and not yours, I will not be putting him in my top three out of spite.
4- Crowded Trade
I am right off the bat excited to see the jockey-trainer combo of Javier Castellano and Chad Brown. I am encouraged with the jockey upgrade from Cancel to Castellano and this can only mean good things for the horse. This horse has proven he can compete with this level of competition by coming in third in the Wood Memorial. I wish this horse’s speed figure in his last race was slightly better as he only got an 87. I think the major problem with this horse is his lack of experience. While I’m not sure if this horse will win, I think with time this horse is extremely interesting and I think is my favorite long shot in the race.
5- Midnight Bourbon
Here we see another familiar name and the jockey-trainer combo of Irad Ortiz and Asmussen that I know my dad is a fan of. In the Kentucky Derby, this horse had Mike Smith as his jockey and personally I think that Irad Ortiz is an upgrade. This horse had the same speed figure in the Derby as Keepmeinmind (90) and finished just one spot ahead of him (6th). I do like this horse better than Keepmeinmind based on jockey-trainer alone. My big question with this horse is if he will compete for the lead against the two Baffert horses because they seem to be the only two lead horses in the race, which is big trouble. Usually, this horse is a lead horse and I counted on that fact in the Derby, but in the Derby he stayed back. I do, however, trust Ortiz with this horse and so therefore I say that this horse does have a real chance of winning this race today.
6- Rombauer
Immediately, I am thrown off as this horse has Flavien Prat as his jockey and I don’t exactly love that. This horse is also not showing very high speed figures as his highest was an 88 in his last race. I don’t even really like this horse as a long shot pick, as this horse has been beaten by Keepmeinmind, which is a longer shot in the race. I really don’t have a lot to say about this horse other than I just don’t see this horse doing much in this race.
7- France Go de Ina
I am not a big Roasrio fan and I have zero idea who Mori Hideyuki is, and I tend to stray from the unfamiliar. This horse came in 6th in his last race with a 91 Timeform figure, a Grade 2 race. This is slightly discouraging since European speed figures tend to be graded a little higher than in the U.S. To be frank, I just really don’t see this horse winning the Preakness or landing as some kind of long shot.
8- Unbridled Honor
I like Saez and Pletcher as this horse’s jockey and trainer. What does concern me about this horse is whether or not he will be able to compete with the field that he is in today. His last race is slightly deceiving because despite having an impressive 91 speed figure, it was a grade three race, while the race before was a grade three race and his speed figure was a 73. I just do not think that he is good enough to be against the competition that he will face today.
9- Risk Taking
I have very similar things to say about this horse as I did about the previous horse. I love this jockey-trainer combo of Jose Ortiz and Chad Brown, but I just don’t think the horse is good enough to beat some of the tougher competition that he will be facing today. His last race was against some of the horses we saw in the Derby and he finished in 7th with a 78 speed-figure, which is not anywhere close to where it needs to be. I just don’t think that jockey and trainer are enough to pull this horse into any kind of position to win.
10- Concert Tour
Here we have the other Baffert horse. Ew. If you notice there are only two consistent lead horses in this race and they are both Baffert horses, which I find extremely worrisome because I desperately want Baffert to lose. This horse has pretty OK speed figures, but I do believe that going from Rosario to Smith is a step up. He is also used to facing tough competition, which is important to note. This horse is my favorite out of the favorites in this race and will therefore be included in my top three.
W: Midnight Bourbon
P: Concert Tour
S: Crowded Trade