Emma Moquin, my sister and head Paddy’s Picks analyst, has just returned home from Penn State to analyze the Kentucky Derby. She doesn’t want a flashy introduction; she wants me to get out of the way so that she can share her opinions with the public.
1- Known Agenda
We start off with a strong contender, as Known Agenda has Irad Ortiz Jr. as his jockey and Todd Pletcher as his trainer. Since Ortiz has ridden this horse, he has not lost, and his speed figures continue to rise with a 94 in his last race. Also in his last race, Known Agenda beat Soup and Sandwich. I realize that he has lost to Hidden Stash, Brooklyn Strong, and Highly Motivated, but I do believe now that Ortiz taking over means that these losses can be overlooked. I do not believe that the distance will be an issue and while the 1 spot can be tough, he does have the advantage of being closest to the rail. I believe that Known Agenda has a real shot and I look forward to seeing how he does.
2- Like the King
This horse has a slightly less impressive jockey-trainer combo with Van Dyke as his jockey and Wesley Ward as his trainer. This horse used to be a lead horse, but now it seems that the connections have successfully taught him to come from behind. It is true that Van Dyke has only ridden him once, so we will see if he can repeat his last ride on him. His speed figure in his last race was a solid 86, and he did beat Sainthood. He does have note-worthy workouts that I think are worth mentioning. This is an interesting horse, but I am not sure that he can win against these competitors.
3- Brooklyn Strong
I can think of a couple of Moquin men who would be fond of this horse simply based on his name, but I guess that we will do some further digging. The jockey and trainer are even more unknown to me than Like the King’s. Daniel Velazquez (trainer) and Umberto Rispoli (jockey) have never had a horse in the Kentucky Derby, which may be exciting for them but is not exactly comforting for the rest of us. Brooklyn Strong had a rough last race, getting only an 82 speed figure, coming in fifth, and losing to both Bourbonic and Dynamic One. However, in his last race of 2020, he beat Known Agenda (a strong contender of this race) with a 94 speed figure. In my opinion this horse has too many what-ifs and I do not believe that he will be able to beat some of the more stable horses of the race.
4- Keepmeinmind
This horse is for all the Zac Brown Band fans/country music enthusiasts out there who know nothing about horses and need to make a pick. Unfortunately for this horse, I think that those are the only people who will be betting on him to win this race. This horse has progressively gotten worse, as his speed figures have gone down 19 points in his last four races. This has come since he started facing tougher competition and I just do not think that he has any possibility of winning this race. The only positive about this horse is his last workout. Other than that, his jockey-trainer connection isn’t great, his last two races have been disasters, and he has lost to Essential Quality three times, Highly Motivated once, and Hot Rod Charlie once. While horse racing taught me at a young age that nothing is impossible, I find it unlikely that this horse will win the Kentucky Derby.
5- Sainthood
Sainthood to me is a classic lead horse tragedy story. This horse has average early speed at best, which means that the only way that he does not die down at the end of the race is if he gets the lead to himself, which is almost impossible here. While I like Pletcher as his trainer, I am not a big fan of Corey Lanerie as his jockey. His highest speed figure ever was his last race where he got an 84 and lost to Like the King, which tells us that even when he is performing at his best he can not beat some of the better competition he will be seeing at the Kentucky Derby.
6- O Besos
This horse is interesting, but his last two races are not exactly what I was hoping to see. In two starts, he has lost to Hot Rod Charlie, Mandaloun, and Midnight Bourbon twice. He had two good races before that, so my instinct is to blame Pedroza, but the harder competition is probably the contributing factor. Despite this, his speed figures have been increasing with each race and he even had a 96 last time out. I find this horse confusing overall, and I am going to go with my instinct and say that this horse will not win.
7- Mandaloun
The jockey-trainer combo is not my favorite with Brad Cox as the trainer and Florent Geroux as the jockey. His last race was a disaster as his speed figure was an 82 and he lost to Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon, and O Besos, but in the previous race he won, beating Midnight Bourbon with a 98 speed figure. This shows that on the right day, this horse can beat the tough competition he is facing in this race, and the rest of us can hope that his last race was nothing more than a bit of bad luck. He also has notably good workouts, which is always encouraging. This horse is pretty good, but I am not sure if he has what it takes.
8- Medina Spirit
I am a fan of this horse. A Baffert and Velazquez jockey-trainer combo is always a good thing and this horse’s speed figures speak for themselves. His speed figures have been going down slowly in the past four races, if only by five points, but it still makes me a little nervous about whether this horse can face the tough competition. He is a lead horse as well, which I don’t love due to the length of this race. He beat Hot Rod Charlie three races ago but lost to Rock Your World in his last start. I really like this horse, but the fact that he is a lead horse is not my favorite as there are much stronger lead horses in this race.
9- Hot Rod Charlie
This is an impressive horse. He is a lead horse, which I usually don’t love in these kinds of races, but he has proven that he can maintain the lead even when racing against some of the best in this field. In his last race, he earned an impressive 99 speed figure while beating Midnight Bourbon and O Besos. While I like Doug O’Neill as a trainer, Flavien Prat is not my favorite jockey. He has ridden Hot Rod Charlie before and he came in fifth. Rosario seemed to know how to ride the horse, but he is now on Rock Your World. While I like this horse, I do not think that Prat can lead him to a Kentucky Derby win.
10- Midnight Bourbon
Another lead horse that could maybe, possibly give Hot Rod Charlie and others a run for their money, but they already went head-to-head in their last race and Hot Rod Charlie came out on top. His speed figures are impressive, and his workouts are also great. He has beaten O Besos, Mandaloun, and Super Stock before, which shows that he can beat some of the competition that he will be facing. He has steady speed figures and makes me believe that Smith and Asmussen know what they are doing with this horse. I just think that there is too much speed in this race and he isn’t good enough to run the distance and maintain his speed.
11- Dynamic One
This horse is a little bit of a letdown to be honest. He has Jose Ortiz and Todd Pletcher, a great combo in my opinion, but his speed figures are nowhere near where I think they should be. His highest speed figure was an 89 in his last race, which is not where he needs to be if he is to win this race. He has only faced two other horses in this field in his last race, Bourbonic and Brooklyn Strong, the latter of which he lost to. I just don’t think that this horse will win.
12- Helium
This horse has an interesting jockey-trainer combo of Julien Leparoux and Mark Casse that I do not mind. He made an impressive comeback in his last race winning against Hidden Stash, but his speed figure for that race was only 84. He has also never ridden with Leparoux before, so I do not know how he is going to do. As much as I love an upset, an 84-speed figure just is not going to cut it. There is also the concern of distance because he has only raced a mile and sixteenth once and while the outcome was pretty good who knows if history can repeat itself in Kentucky. I really doubt it.
13- Hidden Stash
Here is another less-than-impressive horse. Jockey Rafael Bejarano and trainer Victoria Oliver are a bit of a mystery to me, and while I am all for girl power, I am not a huge fan of this horse, His highest speed figure is 83, which is a clear indicator that he is not really going to be able to compete against other horses here. He has previously lost to Helium, Essential Quality, and Highly Motivated. There is a slim chance that this horse will win the Kentucky Derby.
14- Essential Quality
Here we have the favorite of the race. With Luis Saez as his jockey and Brad Cox as his trainer, it is no wonder why. He is also the reason why I do not really believe that any of the lead horses really stands a chance because if there is any horse near the front that could maintain his speed throughout, it is this horse or Rock Your World. He has finished first in his past five races, beating Highly Motivated, Hot Rod Charlie, Keepmeinmind (twice), Super Stock, and others. With each win, his speed figures continue to rise, as he peaked at 97 in his last race. I do, however, worry that Rock Your World and others will tire him out near the front, which could allow others to take over late. This horse is something else and I look forward to seeing how he does against Rock Your World, but I think that he’s a beatable favorite.
15- Rock Your World
Here we have the second favorite of the race. This horse has the highest speed figure of any horse in the race, when he hit 100 in his last race against Medina Spirit. However, I expressed just a couple sentences ago that I fear the large number of lead horses in this race. I’m especially intrigued because he has not faced off with Essential Quality yet, which is something to get excited about. This horse also has only raced three times while Essential Quality has more experience both in races and against runners in the field. I have a general wariness about lead horses and happen to prefer a bit of an underdog, so while I probably will not bet either of the favorites to win, they will be my place and show picks.
16- King Fury (SCR)
17- Highly Motivated
This horse is slightly interesting. I can not morally ignore the fact that this horse has Chad Brown as his trainer and Castellano as his jockey because that is a stellar combo. This horse also seems to be able to adapt to his field, as he can be a lead horse but can also hang back. His past few speed figures have been impressive, but it is discouraging that in his last race he had the lead the whole way but Essential Quality beat him in the end. I also think it is worth mentioning that he has beaten Known Agenda who is another strong contender of the race. Despite coming short last time out, I believe that if any horse is going to beat Essential Quality or Rock Your World, it is this horse.
18- Super Stock
Super Stock seems like a pretty average horse in this field. His speed figures, while improving, are nothing to brag about. I hate to say this about an Asmussen horse because my dad is a big fan of him, but I do not see this horse winning. The fact that King Fury, Essential Quality, Keepmeinmind, and Midnight Bourbon have all previously beaten him enforces my opinion, and his speed figures in those races were no good. I just do not see it happening.
19- Soup and Sandwich
This horse is not bad. His last race was even kind of impressive when he gained a 90 speed figure losing to Known Agenda. This is not me saying that I think this horse will win the race, but I believe that with time and more experience, this horse could become really good. Gaffalione as a jockey in general is yet to shock me though, so I feel pretty confident in saying that I do not believe that this horse will win.
20- Bourbonic
I think it is weird that there are two bourbon-related names in one race especially because before these two, I have never heard bourbon in a horse’s name. This horse made a big splash when he won the Wood Memorial at 72-1 odds (beating Dynamic One), which is a sweet day for anyone who bet on him and shows the rest of us that this horse is capable of surprises. Despite this impressive win, his speed figure in that race was only 89, which is just not where he needs to be if he wants to win the Kentucky Derby against better horses.
Emma’s Picks
Win: 17- Highly Motivated
Place: 14- Essential Quality
Show: 15- Rock Your World
Fourth: 1- Known Agenda