My apprentice handicappers have to have their say as well, especially on racing’s biggest day. For the Kentucky Derby, four of my friends continue to hone their craft and tackle one of the toughest events of the year.
It may serve as more of a warmup for them as a very active summer of gambling approaches, and what better way to get going than a 20-horse stampede?
Niko Konstantellis
Horses That Have a Shot: Mandaloun, Medina Spirit, Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon, Essential Quality, Rock Your World, Highly Motivated
Horses That Won’t Win: Like the King, Keepmeinmind, Sainthood, O Besos, Dynamic One, Hidden Stash, Bourbonic, Soup and Sandwich
My Pick
Rock Your World and Midnight Bourbon create a bad trip for Essential Quality, his first bad trip ever. Essential Quality is the favorite for a reason and will get out in the front of the pack but will be beaten today. Rock Your World got the nod from jockey Joel Rosario and he’s getting the nod from me today.
Trifecta Box: Rock Your World, Essential Quality, Midnight Bourbon (Small Win Bet on Rock Your World)
George McKnight
Essential Quality has climbed higher and higher in recent predictions, holding 2-1 odds as of the April 30 morning line. The clear favorite is gunning for 6-6 in his young career. Though it’s fun to be right, it’s more fun to pick a winning underdog. Call it a flair for the dramatic. Rock Your World and Known Agenda could also very easily take this race.
So if I’m betting for a winner, I’d pull from either of those three. My adventurous side wants to go with Rock Your World – his performance in the Santa Anita Derby outshined all his competitors by comparison, winning by 4 and a half lengths on dirt. The thoroughbred seems like the safest pick after Essential Quality.
Lucas Ludgate
7- Mandaloun
- ran fantastically then ran poorly, brad cox, why 98 win into 82 at 1/16 longer
- Prob wont bet, but could be dangerous with good odds on a bounceback performance
- 28-1
8- Medina Spirit
- Baffert, consistent, early speed, lost to Rock Your World
- Beat Hot Rod Charlie earlier
- Early speed but probably not speedy enough
- 12-1
9- Hot Rod Charlie
- very good, better with distance
- early speed optimal
- Big potential
- 6-1
10- Midnight Bourbon
- very good horse
- early speed optimal
- has lost speed duels to Hot Rod Charlie and Mandaloun
- Early speed but not quite fast enough
- 13-1
14- Essential Quality
- Brad Cox
- hasn’t lost a race, can win many ways,
- prob best horse but top speed 97
- Best horse, not invincible but wins
- 2-1
15- Rock Your World
- early speed ideal, hasn’t lost
- top Beyer figure, big step up in last race (good with distance)
- Top early speed, wins races, dirt monster
- 5-1
17- Highly Motivated
- very good horse, Chad Brown
- Prob won’t bet him but he’s consistent and can win diff ways
- 11-1
My Top Four: Hot Rod Charlie, Essential Quality, Rock Your
World, Highly Motivated
Bets: Rock Your World to win, Hot Rod Charlie and Rock Your World exacta (betting on a speed duel), Essential Quality and Highly Motivated exacta (same result as last race)
Tyler Zorn
Highly Motivated is my sleeper pick. He has an experienced jockey and impressive Beyer figures, and went toe to toe with Essential Quality last time out. It’s tough to bet against Essential Quality as the heavy favorite though. Saez is very experienced and the horse has won five races straight with very impressive Beyer figures. I’m going to box these two in an exacta for this loaded race.
Recap
Niko’s Bet: 10-14-15 Trifecta Box
George’s Bet: 15- Rock Your World
Lucas’ Bet: 9-15 Exacta Box and 14-17 Exacta Box
Tyler’s Bet: 14-17 Exacta Box