When I visited Monmouth Park last week on a trip with family, the eight-race card on Friday felt underwhelming until I remembered that Haskell Day was coming. Then it all made sense.
The 14-race Haskell Day card is one of the greatest days on the American racing calendar every year, featuring massive fields, competitive racing at multiple levels and the Haskell Stakes, one of the premier races in the three-year-old division. Some of the earlier races in the day are also the hardest to bet on, washing many bettors out before they can even get to the glitzy feature races later on. As if day-to-day handicapping at Saratoga wasn’t hard enough, Monmouth’s big day represents a handicapping marathon designed to flummox bettors. Let’s get into it.
Race 1
$57,500 Allowance for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 1/16 Miles on the Turf
Post Time: 12:00 p.m. EST
4- Regal Realm
8- With Bells On
2- No Valla
5- Jean V’s Legacy
Order: 4 8 2 5
Regal Realm dusted off a solid field of maidens at Delaware in May before getting rushed to the lead and fading at Belmont last time out. In that start in New York, in which she was in over her head anyway, she was more stubborn on the front end than her fifth place finish might suggest. That sense of competition will serve her better with some class relief. With Bells On should enter the starting gate as the favorite here, and that’s easily justifiable with Todd Pletcher and Flavien Prat teaming up. Her three starts in maiden competition at Belmont are also solid and likely enough to earn her a win here. No Valla showed a new dimension running on the front end last time out against a weak field at Parx, and though it likely isn’t quite strong enough to compete for a win here, she’ll likely benefit from an inside position again. Jean V’s Legacy is a frustrating filly that remains winless on turf in 11 starts, but she has recently run better than her results suggest and Paco Lopez is a welcome addition. A minor prize is in play.
Race 2
$57,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Olds, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
Post Time: 12:27 p.m. EST
2- Easy as A.B.C.
4- Driven by Pressure
5- Blame D Rule Maker
6- Royal Mover
Order: 2 4 5 6
It’s hard to go against a pair of Pletcher runners, but Easy as A.B.C. seems poised to make a big run on first asking for Kelly Breen. The colt has been training very solidly at Monmouth for some time, and Paco Lopez gets the pick of the litter in these New Jersey races. Driven by Pressure wouldn’t be a massive surprise for trainer Todd Pletcher, though one would think that the New York trainer could find a more familiar jockey for him than Florent Geroux. Jorge Duarte Jr. seems to send his firsters out with reckless abandon, which makes $225,000 purchase Blame D Rule Maker an interesting one to consider as well. Royal Mover is Pletcher’s other runner in here and also has a start to his name, and it’s always possible that he can take a step forward.
Race 3
Wolf Hill Stakes (Ungraded) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Turf
Post Time: 12:54 p.m. EST
5- The Critical Way
3- Proven Strategies
7- Belgrano
4- Breakthrough
Order: 5 3 7 4
The morning of Haskell Day last year, a friend of mine going to Monmouth texted me asking for picks so she could look like she knew what she was doing. I hadn’t looked at most of the card, but I was sitting on the couch with my dad and quickly realized I could spare a few minutes to find her something. Among a few more interesting picks, I eventually decided to give her The Critical Way to win the Wolf Hill at 3-5 odds. It was obvious, sure, but she probably cashed a winning ticket for a couple of nickels and I guaranteed that I didn’t look like a complete idiot. Win-win.
Anyway, the winner of this race last year seems poised to repeat here. He might not be 3-5 this time around, but The Critical Way was brilliant off the layoff two starts back, wiring the field and earning a 102 BSF. He still ran well in his most recent outing, but a more crowded early pace scenario and closer-friendly track clearly hurt him in the late stages. He’s hard to deny. Proven Strategies and Belgrano both closed well last time out to catch The Critical Way, and while both capitalized on inside trips for most of the race, I happened to prefer Proven Strategies’ run on the outside in the stretch, even if it ended in defeat. Breakthrough is an outsider coming off a sharp performance against allowance competition, but the gelding needs to improve after getting smashed by The Critical Way two starts back in May.
Race 4
$16,000 Optional Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 Mile and 70 Yards on the Dirt
Post Time: 1:22 p.m. EST
6- Big Bad Diva
3- Firenze Freedom
5- Suspended Campaign
8- Dia de Sol
Order: 6 3 5 8
There’s a lot to consider here, but one of the favorites does stand out in some respects. Saffie Joseph trainee Big Bad Diva ran well in Florida all winter despite finding some strange spots along the way, including a turf route and dirt marathon that she didn’t belong in. Her last race in April was solid, and there’s no shame in losing to Beth’s Dream by 11 lengths, as that filly is running later today in the G3 Molly Pitcher. On form alone, it’s difficult to back Firenze Freedom after a poor performance in her only start of 2022. The peripheral factors all seem to suggest improvement though, as trainer Kelly Breen stretches her back out to a mile here while recruiting Paco Lopez to ride. Sometimes it’s best to trust the connections. On that note, Suspended Campaign seems like a dangerous New York skipper with Orlando Noda and Jose Ortiz teaming up. The filly hasn’t shown much in New York recently despite finding reasonable spots, but Noda isn’t the sort of trainer a bettor can defy forever. Dia de Sol struggled down south earlier this year in stiff competition against 3YOs, but her workouts recently have been incredibly sharp and improvement is likely. Paco Lopez leaving to ride Firenze Freedom is the only concern.
Race 5
$12,500 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 Mile on the Turf
Post Time: 1:52 p.m. EST
11- Unleveraged
13- Minnesota Lucky
7- Bird’s Eye View
12- On the Couch
Order: 11 13 7 12
It’s a sucker’s race, but I have to analyze them all. The problem is that the best horses in the race have some of the worst post positions, but Unleveraged managed to overcome a similar position last time out when beating multiple runners in this field. He remains the pick. Taking long shot Minnesota Lucky from the far outside post may seem like I’m putting the barrel in my mouth, but I’m taking him because the plan is straightforward. Coming off a layoff last time out, he ran well at an uncomfortably short distance but faded badly in the stretch. It was clearly an attempt at a freshener by trainer Douglas Nunn, who will stretch him back out here at a lower level than the one he was racing at in Tampa earlier this year. He’s going to be gunning for the early lead and I’m willing to bet that he’ll get it. Great name too. Bird’s Eye View is a professional runner with an advantageous post position relative to his main rivals. But a better post position couldn’t get him past fellow runner Unleveraged last time out. A minor check may be the limit. Unlike Unleveraged, who has a semblance of tactical speed, On the Couch has a tendency to drift back in the early going. Though he’s an obvious win contender, the post position concerns me in his case.
Race 6
$16,000 Optional Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races
Post Time: 2:24 p.m. EST
2- Awesome Aaron
1- Affable Monarch
4- Our Lucky Man
7- Dreaming of Gerry
Order: 2 1 4 7
It’s a tricky race, but the two three-year-olds both look like candidates for improvement. Awesome Aaron did very little running against a deep field at Churchill last time out, but he was coming off a layoff and finds a much softer landing spot here. If he can improve on his maiden victory at Aqueduct in March, he’s a dangerous contender for trainer Chad Brown. Affable Monarch ran deceptively well at Pimlico in May after a terrible beginning and insanely wide trip throughout. His improvement in a turf stakes race last month wasn’t necessarily surprising with that in mind, and dirt seems to be the preferred surface. Our Lucky Man ran well behind Haskell runner Benevengo last time out despite giving away 20 lengths at the start following a slow break. Improvement seems natural, but he has had gate problems in the past. Dreaming of Gerry has performances that make him a contender against this field, but the quality of the fields he dominated at Parx in May were questionable at best.
Race 7
$57,500 Allowance for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 1/16 Miles on the Turf
Post Time: 2:56 p.m. EST
5- Midnight Chrome
10- Dominate Themoment
1- Credit River
9- Montauk Summer
Order: 5 1 10 9
I’ve got a weird one here. Midnight Chrome’s form is very messy for a number of reasons. Between two starts in graded stakes competition and a DNF in which he unseated rider Paco Lopez, it’s difficult to assess his true ability on dirt, let alone on turf. It may seem like John Servis has resorted to throwing things at the wall and seeing what sticks by switching surfaces here, but I think the decision is more cognizant than that. His lone turf start this year was in March and it wasn’t as bad as the 65 BSF implies, as he closed well in a race totally devoid of pace to take third. He’s been gelded since then and Lopez stays to ride despite getting tossed last time out. The gelding’s lone win came on the turf at Monmouth as a two-year-old. Dominate Themoment is a more obvious contender in this field after several solid performances at Gulfstream in the spring. Joel Rosario is a massive jockey upgrade, but the horse still feels beatable to me. Credit River ran twice in 2020 and only returned to the track this past May, when he was immediately eliminated from contention in a turf sprint after checking out of the gate. Jonathan Thomas is trying every trick in the book to get him straightened out, however, putting him back to a route distance, removing blinkers and recruiting Flavien Prat to ride. The only other concern is Rosario’s apparent preference for fellow runner Dominate Themoment. Montauk Summer doesn’t seem like a legitimate win contender here, but the gelding returned from a layoff with a very strong performance last month and could get in the mix while stepping up in class.
Race 8
Monmouth Cup (G3) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 3:29 p.m. EST
6- Pipeline
7- Highly Motivated
4- Rough Sea
3- Informative
Order: 6 7 4 3
It seems to be a match race between a pair of Chad Brown runners, which means there’s little money to be made. Pipeline returned from a solid, if underwhelming, 3YO campaign by dominating an allowance field at Aqueduct in April with a 104 BSF. He hasn’t raced since, but with plenty of tactical speed at his disposal, he’s a prime candidate to fire fresh off a layoff. Highly Motivated has eased into the 2022 season after nearly a year off from competition following the 2021 Kentucky Derby. His win at the optional claiming level at Belmont last time out was professional, but he still hasn’t taken a massive step forward from his younger form, and the clock is ticking. Rough Sea has been a low-level bully at a handful of tracks in recent months and his speed figures have improved along the way, but he’s up against it here. Informative has been an also-ran in graded stakes for a year now, though he did pull off a stunning 79-1 upset in the G3 Salvator Mile at Monmouth last year.
Race 9
Matchmaker Stakes (G3) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Turf
Post Time: 4:05 p.m. EST
2- Lemista (Ire)
6- Fluffy Socks
5- Flighty Lady (Ire)
7- Vigilantes Way
4- Lady Rockstar (GB)
Order: 2 6 5 7 4
There are five horses that are capable of winning this race, and the difference between them is negligible. Lemista (Ire) came to the U.S. last year and seemed poised to make an immediate splash in the female turf division. She’s been winless in five starts, however, and still seems to struggle putting the pieces together. Despite this, she’s still highly competitive at this level, so any improvement at all could make the difference. Like her stablemate, Fluffy Socks has been knocking on the door of turf stardom for some time now. The difference is that there’s a very obvious ceiling on her ability, as she has performed at roughly the same level for a long time without improving. I don’t think Chad Brown expected Flighty Lady (Ire) to be as competitive as she was in the G1 New York, as it seemed obvious that she was entered as a pace presence and nothing more. Though she did her job and set up perfect conditions for Bleecker Street that day, she also nearly won the race by accident and deserves a second look against this softer field. Vigilantes Way is one of the few Monmouth locals in this race, and horses with success over the course are always interesting. I just would’ve preferred her to be a little sharper going into a battle against a trio of Brown runners. Lady Rockstar (GB) is an up-and-coming European import for Brendan Walsh, and a breakthrough in stakes competition could come in any start.
Race 10
Molly Pitcher Stakes (G3) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 4:38 p.m. EST
3- Search Results
4- Army Wife
7- Bonny South
2- Pennybaker
Order: 3 4 7 2
It’s not rocket science. Search Results ran credibly in the G1 Ogden Phipps behind superstars Clairiere and Malathaat. Without that pair in this field, she becomes a very tough favorite. Army Wife and Bonny South are both competitors at this level, but they will have to improve to match the favorite, who has beaten both of them convincingly in the past. Pennybaker might be the first horse I’ve ever seen ship from Europe to run on dirt.
Race 11
United Nations Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ⅜ Miles on the Turf
Post Time: 5:09 p.m. EST
10- Gufo
1- Adhamo (Ire)
4- Tribhuvan (Fr)
3- Temple
Order: 10 1 4 3
The top three from the G1 Manhattan last month are rematching in the G1 United Nations, and I’ve bet on all three of them previously. Last time out, I predicted that Gufo would lose as the favorite to a Chad Brown runner. I was right, but I picked the wrong one. This time around, the price might be right to take the Christophe Clement trainee in a slightly more advantageous position on the Monmouth turf, a course I believe he’ll appreciate. I thought Adhamo (Ire) was good enough to beat Gufo last time out and I was right, but he still lost to fellow runner and stablemate Tribhuvan because Chad Brown has a self-loathing streak. The colt is once again a contender here, but the value won’t be there and he remains winless in his last eight starts. Tribhuvan (Fr) seemed all but finished going into the Manhattan, but a sneaky ride by jockey Manny Franco proved to make the difference in a wire-to-wire score. There’s slightly more pace in this field and it will be difficult to replicate that trip, however, making him a vulnerable favorite despite the massive 108 BSF last time out. Temple is coming off a layoff for Michael Maker and could pick up a minor prize under the right conditions.
Race 12
Haskell Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 5:45 p.m. EST
For full analysis of the 2022 Haskell Stakes, click here for the official Paddy’s Picks preview.
Race 13
$16,000 Maiden Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Turf
Post Time: 6:20 p.m. EST
2- War in Paradise
6- Requestforproposal
7- Luna’s Treasure
4- Ace Girl
Order: 2 6 7 4
Race 14
$7,500 Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
Post Time: 6:49 p.m. EST
7- Blind Sight
8- Expect to Be Ready
5- Alarm Clock
6- Queen’s Best