Make Your Case: Guest Hancidappers Defend Every Horse in the 2024 Kentucky Derby

In the early 1600s, Catherine de Vivonne, marquise de Rambouillet, grew tired of the social scene in France and began hosting small events in her salon. In time, these events and others like it became highly fashionable, allowing intellectuals across various disciplines to exchange concepts and ideas on the basis of reason. Thus began the Age of Enlightenment. 

Nearly 200 years later, King Louis XVI was beheaded by guillotine in the Place de la Concorde. 22 years after that, the tyrant Napoleon Bonaparte was exiled for the second time and sent to die off the coast of Africa.

It is now time for Paddy’s Picks contributors to partake in a meaningful exchange of concepts and ideas.

The time has finally come, dear reader, for Paddy’s Picks to begin its coverage of the 2024 Kentucky Derby. I would like to start with a new idea. Though all of my guests in this article, as well as many others, will have a chance to make their own Derby picks in another article later this week, I decided to give a select few an additional assignment, one that has challenged their handicapping skills in new and exciting ways.

Below, you will find 20 guest contributors who have been randomly assigned to a horse in this year’s Derby field. Regardless of prior performance, their task was to build a legitimate, convincing case for their designated horse to win the Kentucky Derby. In some cases, this was an easy task. In others, it was practically impossible and required immense creativity.

From a handicapping standpoint, this exercise does have some value, as it’s extremely easy to overlook favorable details in an unfavorable horse. As a general rule in life, people see what they expect to see, so forcing my guests to defend horses they might not have looked at twice otherwise is somewhat instructive. Beyond this purpose, however, the idea made me laugh, which usually serves as a stronger motivating factor.

It’s been some time since I’ve found the time to publish any work on Paddy’s Picks, and it’s highly gratifying to know that there are people close to me who are still interested in the project. I sincerely hope that one of my guests manages to sway you all as you consider this extremely difficult race.

Churchill Downs, Saturday, Race 12

Kentucky Derby (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ¼ Miles on the Dirt

1- Dornoch

Paddy’s Notes: Dornoch is trained by Danny Gargan and will be ridden by Luis Saez. Considered a Triple Crown contender earlier this year, he most recently finished fourth in the G1 Blue Grass Stakes with an 88 BSF. He is 20-1 on the morning line.

Defender: Owen Roche

“Little Sibling Syndrome begets greatness. Eli Manning. Serena Williams. Travis Kelce. A mid-atlantic rotisserie chicken binge-eater upstaged by a cheeseball-chomper from a larger media market. A fiery, proven winner chasing an older brother’s crown. Dornoch is the last one, aiming to go back-to-back in the Run for the Roses with 2023 winner and older brother Mage. 

These are high expectations, and at 20-1 odds, Dornoch needs an unlikely return to peak form to keep hope alive. The outlook is bleak — down the proverbial six points with 30 seconds left in hypothetical Madison Square Garden — but miracles have a funny way of happening in these types of situations. Brotherly love — or lack thereof — might just be enough to win the day.”

2- Sierra Leone

Paddy’s Notes: Sierra Leone is trained by Chad Brown and will be ridden by Tyler Gaffalione. He has won three of his four career starts, including a 1 ½-length victory with a 98 BSF in the G1 Blue Grass last time out. He is 3-1 on the morning line, making him the second choice in this field.

Defender: Tyler Zorn

“I was assigned the 2, Sierra Leone. At 3-1 odds, it will not be hard to make a case for his victory. Trained by the legendary Chad Brown and ridden by Tyler Gaffalione (amazing name by the way), this horse most recently won the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland by 1.5 lengths. The race featured fellow Derby horses Just a Touch and Epic Ride, among others. Gaffalione also led the horse to victory in February, running against Derby horses Track Phantom and Catching Freedom. 

Sierra Leone has consistently demonstrated success against other derby horses, and has posted impressive Beyer scores of 91, 95, and 98 in his last three races. Additionally, he has proven his ability to run well in both dry and wet conditions. With a slight chance of rain for Friday, the track should be in good condition by Saturday evening. But the horse will most definitely be prepared for anything!

Each race for Sierra Leone included a slow start but a strong finish in the back half, leading to 3 first place finishes and 1 second place finish. I would expect a similar strategy for Gaffalione in the Kentucky Derby, pacing the horse for a strong run in the final third of the race. With that said, Sierra Leone will be facing strong competition in Fierceness, who likes to get out to quick starts. It will be crucial for Gaffalione to recognize this and not let Sierra Leone fall too far behind. 

All things considered, Sierra Leone is one of the favorites and my pick for the 2024 Kentucky Derby!”

3- Mystik Dan

Paddy’s Notes: Mystik Dan is trained by Ken McPeek and will be ridden by Brian Hernandez Jr. He turned heads in February when he earned a 101 BSF on a sloppy track in an eight-length victory in the G3 Southwest. He most recently finished third in the G1 Arkansas Derby. He is 20-1 on the morning line.

Defender: Kreena Vora

“Let’s start with some facts:

1. 11 of the previous 14 Kentucky Derby winners had a 100+ BSF. This narrows our field of statistically probable winners down to just Mystic Dan and Fierceness, the only two horses this year to satisfy this criteria. Sorry to all the other hopeful horses out there, but they simply aren’t fast enough to win.
2. Now considering just these two horses, Fierceness has drawn post number 17, which is the only starting post that has never won the Kentucky Derby. On the other hand, Mystik has post number 3, which is the 4th most common post to have horses finish in the money.

The numbers clearly show that the only horse that can win the Kentucky Derby is Mystik Dan (you can trust me on that, I have a whole degree in numbers). 

But for those of you who need a little more convincing, we can turn to Mystik’s owners, trainer, and jockey. Mystik was basically bred to win the Kentucky Derby as the son of Goldencents (two-time Breeders’ Cup winner) and Ma’am. 

Mystik Dan is fast, and has experience running and winning at Churchill Downs. As Mystik’s jockey says, ‘He’s just a really cool horse … nothing really bothers him,’ and he seems happy running in Kentucky. Mystik has the right attitude and coupled with his speed, he should be unbeatable out there on Saturday.”

4- Catching Freedom

Paddy’s Notes: Catching Freedom is trained by Brad Cox and will be ridden by Flavien Prat. He earned his first graded stakes victory last time out in the G2 Louisiana Derby, closing to win from last and earning a 97 BSF. He is 8-1 on the morning line.

Defender: Patrick Moquin Sr.

“Beyers trending in the right direction. A closer but not a closer from dead last. That’s a strength because it’s hard to go last to first in a 20-horse field. Runners in lager fields have a much better chance from the middle of the pack. Cox and Prat are a formidable combo. He got outkicked by the favorite (Fierceness) in the slop two back, but I think he’s more than capable of flipping the script on a fast dry track at a better price.”

5- Catalytic

Paddy’s Notes: Catalytic is trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. and will be ridden by Jose Ortiz. He most recently finished second in the G1 Florida Derby, losing by 13 ½ lengths while earning a 90 BSF. He is 30-1 on the morning line.

Defender: Emma Moquin (Editor’s Note: Emma is providing analysis in place of Hugh Esterson, who was not available to contribute at the time of publication.)

“Catalytic is a fresh horse with three races under his belt and a fair bit of success, never finishing outside the top two. The main race I will focus on is his last race, the G1 Florida Derby. In this race, he had a 90 speed figure and raced alongside Fierceness and Grand Mo the First, splitting that pair for second place. 

For the Kentucky Derby, he has Jose Ortiz on him, which is a huge jockey upgrade from his last race where Leparoux was his jockey. He also seems to have an adaptable running style. 

He has the ability to come from behind or keep up with the pack when necessary. This can be seen as crucial when faced with the unpredictability of the Kentucky Derby. 

Catalytic has shown that he can hold his own against the competition he is facing today and I believe that he has been put in a position of success with Jose Ortiz as his jockey. I think he’s definitely in the mix. God knows crazier things have happened in the Kentucky Derby.”

6- Just Steel

Paddy’s Notes: Just Steel is trained by D. Wayne Lukas and will be ridden by Keith Asmussen. He has two wins in 11 career starts and last entered the winner’s circle in November 2023 at Churchill Downs. He most recently finished second in the G1 Arkansas Derby with a 95 BSF. He is 20-1 on the morning line.

Defender: Cristine Kalinski

“If you’ve got any savings in your bank, trust me and put everything you’ve got on Just Steel. I could go into a few arguments here, his impressive second place finishes in competitive races, his masterful trainer D. Wayne Lukas, or his legendary bloodline. 

But instead, I want you to think about this race and this moment, the Kentucky Derby is practically cinematic. And personally, I couldn’t think of a bet more sure than the underdog winning in cinematic moments. 

Think of the movie Real Steel, which at first I thought this horse shared a name with. It’s a beautiful and criminally underrated story about a scrawny robot who boxes and defies all odds and wins the big boxing match because of the expertise of his trainer played by Hugh Jackman and because he has heart, even though he’s a robot. He was the biggest underdog in the game but we as the audience knew from the beginning that he would win. And that’s what we know here too. 

Take what you know from Real Steel and make the obvious choice, pick Just Steel to win the Derby.”

7- Honor Marie

Paddy’s Notes: Honor Marie is trained by Whitworth Beckman and will be ridden by Ben Curtis. He most recently closed from the back to finish second in the G2 Louisiana Derby with a 96 BSF. He is 20-1 on the morning line.

Defender: George McKnight

“I’ve been assigned to defend Honor Marie’s case at the Derby, and honestly, there’s a lot of upside here. He’s coming off a solid second to Catching Freedom in the Louisiana Derby, beaten only by a length. 

He has experience at Churchill Downs, owning 2 wins and a second in three starts there. Most notably, he recorded a big win here last year in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club. 

He’s a little slower than the other highly touted closers like Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom, but I think he’s sitting on a much bigger forward move after pairing his two-year old top last time out. He definitely has the stamina in his pedigree, with AP Indy and Smart Strike as significant influences. 

The 1 1/4 miles shouldn’t pose a challenge to him, but it’s all about the speed. At 20-1 odds, there’s a chance of a big payout if you take a flier on him.”

8- Just a Touch

Paddy’s Notes: Just a Touch is trained by Brad Cox and will be ridden by Florent Geroux. In three career starts, he has finished second in two graded stakes races, including the G1 Blue Grass last time out, in which he earned a 96 BSF. He is one of two horses in this field that did not race as a juvenile. He is 10-1 on the morning line.

Defender: Emma Moquin

“Just a Touch! What a horse! This horse has had steadily increasing speed figures recently, with his latest being an impressive 96. In this same race, the Blue Grass, he proved he could keep up with competition he’ll see again in the Kentucky Derby, like Sierra Leone and Epic Ride. 

He has a solid jockey-trainer combo of Geroux and Cox that no one can be too mad about. Geroux seems to have a handle on how to successfully ride the horse, as the pair have finished first or second in every race they’ve run together. His last race was even a Grade 1 race, and finishing second in his first Grade 1 race is very impressive. 

Maybe this experience has given him a chance to get used to the competitiveness of these kinds of races. With 10-1 odds, this horse is seen as a contender but is also enough of a price for an encouraging profit. Today is Just a Touch’s day to beat the Curse of Apollo!”

9- Encino (SCRATCHED)

Paddy’s Notes: Encino withdrew from the Derby field on Tuesday, April 30. There was enough time before publication for Paddy’s Picks editors to adjust to this change.

10- T O Password (Jpn)

Paddy’s Notes: T O Password is trained by Daisuke Takayanagi and will be ridden by Kazushi Kimura. He most recently won the Fukuryu Stakes by a head. He has two career starts, both in Japan and both wins. He’s 30-1 on the morning line.

Defender: Kristina Stevanovic (Editor’s Note: Kristina Stevanovic was originally scheduled to defend the 9, Encino. Instead, she is providing analysis in place of Courtney Brogle, who was not available to contribute at the time of publication.)

“A long shot on paper, T O Password has winning blood running through his veins, made clear through his pedigree and from winning his two career starts. He’s distantly related to Sunday Silence (winner of the 1989 Derby winner), and comes from a line of excellent dirt horses. 

While his races have been a bit shorter than Saturday’s, there’s no reason to think he won’t be able to stretch out a bit more, especially after a great workout this week. T O Password will stay in the mix and shouldn’t be ignored this weekend.”

11- Forever Young (Jpn)

Paddy’s Notes: Forever Young is trained by Yoshito Yahagi and will be ridden by Ryusei Sakai. He most recently won the UAE Derby by two lengths, extending his undefeated streak to five races. He is 10-1 on the morning line.

Defender: Joan Moquin

“Personally, my handicapping preferences usually favor two types of thoroughbreds: front runners and closers. I admire the dominant style of front runners like Man o’ War, Seabiscuit, Ruffian, Ghostzapper and Rachel Alexandra. I also believe there is much to be said for the cool confidence of closers. Who could dispute the perfection of Silky Sullivan, Secretariat or the queen, Zenyatta?

That said, for this year’s Kentucky Derby, I have not been assigned a front-running or closing type, but a stalking horse, Forever Young. This running style usually makes me nervous, but runners who favor it tend to be known for their versatility, and that’s what I anticipate for this Japanese newcomer. Forever Young is a five-time undefeated beast that has easily earned his spot in this year’s Derby by dominating fields in both his home country of Japan and the Middle East. Here’s hoping this impressive colt bids, ‘Sayonara’ to the pack as he easily glides over the finish line on Saturday!

Stats you need to know.
– approx. 94 BSF in the UAE Derby
– $2 million in purse winnings
– Races/Wins to date:
3/24 – UAE Derby
2/24 – Saudi Derby
12/23 – Zen-Nippon
11/23 – JBC Nisai
10/23 – Kyoto Maiden Race”

12- Track Phantom

Paddy’s Notes: Track Phantom is trained by Steve Asmussen and will be ridden by Joel Rosario. He most recently finished fourth in the G2 Louisiana Derby, losing by 2 ½ lengths with a 94 BSF. He is 20-1 on the morning line.

Defender: Rob Patterson

“I have faith in Joel Rosario to lead us Track Phantom fans to the promised land, this is a fantastic pairing of horse and jockey (newly elected to the hall of fame ??) 20-1 aren’t bad odds and I think he can get it done. 

My editor mentioned that Track Phantom can get out in front at the start, but I have a feeling he’s going to go all the way (I have no scientific backing for these claims however I feel extremely strongly about them). To end off my argument, I leave you with this picture of my favorite horse of all time.”

Editor’s Note: The photo Rob requested to put into this article is one of Track Phantom winning the Gun Runner Stakes last December. Including that photo without permission is a little too close to a violation of copyright law, however, so I’ve omitted it. I will make an earnest attempt to get permission this week.

13- West Saratoga

Paddy’s Notes: West Saratoga is trained by Larry Demeritte and will be ridden by Jesus Castanon. He has not won a race since September 2023 and most recently finished second by four lengths in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks with an 85 BSF. He is 50-1 on the morning line.

Defender: Eddie Harrison

“Wow! West Saratoga, the other side of the city where I made my first bet in harness racing. 50-1 odds, I mean does it get more enticing? Anything better and you’re hardly making money. Anything worse and you’re not making any. 

As a man that has never been to Omaha, I think I can speak for Warren Buffet when I say that this is a great value. This here is a speedy horse who’s only been getting speedier, at least since January.”

14- Endlessly

Paddy’s Notes: Endlessly is trained by Michael McCarthy and will be ridden by Umberto Rispoli. He most recently won the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks by four lengths with a 91 BSF. He has never competed on dirt, earning two wins on synthetic surfaces and three on the turf in six career starts. He is 30-1 on the morning line.

Defender: Mia Agostinelli

“In his first performance on dirt, Endlessly has a lot to prove. A win for him this weekend would be third time that a Jeff Ruby Stakes winner, despite the odds, is victorious at the Derby.

Instead of focusing on what he hasn’t done, it’s worth mentioning that if he comes out of the gate strong, like he has at his previous races, and is able to hold off the favorites, especially those in unfavorable post positions, he might have a shot on this unfamiliar surface.

The others before him who have been successful on dirt and turf like Northern Dancer, Secretariat and former Ruby Stakes winner Animal Kingdom show that it is possible for Endlessly to be a champion here, too. His sire, Oscar Performance is not only a champion racer, but comes from a long line of impressive dirt racers as well.

If Endlessly has anything to show for his pedigree, there is no better time than now.”

15- Domestic Product

Paddy’s Notes: Domestic Product is trained by Chad Brown and will be ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr. He most recently won the G3 Tampa Bay Derby in early March with an 82 BSF. He is 30-1 on the morning line.

Defender: Niko Konstantellis

“Trainer Chad Brown comes into Derby weekend with 2 horses running or the roses; Sierra Leone, a horse with the second shortest odds on the morning line, ridden by top jockey Tyler Gafflione, and Domestic Product.  

It is not uncommon for trainers to enter multiple horses in the same race, but every trainer has their go-to jockey. For Todd Pletcher, it is 4-time Derby winner John Velasquez.  For legendary trainer Charlie Whittingham, it was Bill Shoemaker, who helped Whittingham win his first Kentucky Derby in 1986.  And for Chad Brown, his most trusted jockey is Irad Ortiz.

Although Gaffalione has been riding both Sierra Leone and Domestic Product recently, Brown assigned him to Sierra Leone this weekend, giving the longer shot to Irad. On paper and at the betting window, Domestic Product is a worse horse than Sierra Leone; he’s slower, has less wins, and seems better cut out for a sprint rather than the 1 ¼ the race entails.  But it sure makes you think why Chad Brown, one of the top trainers in the world would assign Irad Ortiz, one of the top jockeys in the world and Brown’s #1, to the “lesser” of his two options. Surely, there is something he sees in Domestic Product that he trusts Irad to bring out in him, and ultimately get the job done.  

As for the horse himself, Domestic Product is no slouch at 30-1. His most impressive race in my opinion, was one he didn’t even win. In the Holy Bull Stakes, in which he charged to a strong final turn after riding in the middle/back of the pack for most of the race, he ultimately beat out 1-5 favorite (and current Derby favorite) Fierceness despite a rough trip.  

Fierceness is one of the faster horses out of the gate this weekend, but Domestic Product’s ability to hang close, track down and even overtake him down the stretch should have Domestic Product drawing the attention of every handicapper this weekend.”

16- Grand Mo the First

Paddy’s Notes: Grand Mo the First is trained by Victor Barboza Jr. and will be ridden by Emisael Jaramillo. He most recently finished third by 16 lengths in the G1 Florida Derby, earning an 87 BSF. He has not won a race since September 2023, is winless on dirt, and is also winless beyond 5 ½ furlongs. He is 50-1 on the morning line.

Defender: Chris Murray

“They say that any horse can win the Kentucky Derby if things break their way. Look at Rich Strike, who won America’s most famous race as an 80-1 longshot in 2022. Grand Mo the First challenges this age old logic. 

Grand Mo hasn’t won a race since September and most recently finished 16 lengths behind Fierceness in the Florida Derby. He’s never succeeded anywhere near the Derby distance and hasn’t posted a BSF over 87 in his career. Some people would write off this horse.

I’m here to tell you that everybody, every statistic, and every piece of horse racing wisdom is wrong about Grand Mo the First. This horse has not finished below third in his career and simply has a nose for the front of the pack. Grand Mo has a knack for finishing strong and will be positioned next to frontrunner Fierceness, who he saw in his last race. Fierceness will push Grand Mo to stay competitive in the early goings, setting him up for a late push. 

Trainer Victor Barboza, Jr. and jockey Emisael Jaramillo are sure to prepare Grand Mo to avoid the fate of his last race, where he fell 11 lengths back by the last turn. If you believe in the great ideals of this sport, that any horse can win any race, then follow me and support this longshot to shock the world. (DO NOT BET ON THIS HORSE UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES.)”

17- Fierceness

Paddy’s Notes: Fierceness is trained by Todd Pletcher and will be ridden by John Velasquez. Despite a pair of lapses in five career starts, he most recently dominated the G1 Florida Derby by 13 ½ lengths, earning a 110 BSF. He is the 5-2 favorite to win the Kentucky Derby.

Defender: Madeline Sandholm

“So, word on the street is that this horse is a beast. And with a name like Fierceness, I gotta believe that he’s gonna slay.

I have never been able — and maybe will never be able — to truly understand the racing forms, but according to an inside source, Fierceness crushed the Florida Derby and that’s enough for me to be convinced about this horse. I know I’m supposed to be convincing you, dear reader, but if my enthusiasm (and the fact that Fierceness is pretty speedy) isn’t enough to get you, I don’t know what will. 

As for Fierceness wearing number 17? First time for everything babeyyy (and also I was informed that due to scratches, Fierceness won’t be starting from post 17, so this lovely horse won’t be plagued by the bad vibes from that post).”

18- Stronghold

Paddy’s Notes: Stronghold is trained by Phil D’Amato and will be ridden by Antonio Fresu. He has never finished worse than second in his six-race career and most recently won the G1 Santa Anita Derby with an 89 BSF. He is 20-1 on the morning line.

Defender: Emily Ellis

“I don’t have any expertise to fall back on so I’m gonna have to say that my buddy Stronghold is gonna win because a) he’s strong and b) he’s gonna hold first place. Can’t argue with that, am I right?”

19- Resilience

Paddy’s Notes: Resilience is trained by Bill Mott and will be ridden by Junior Alvarado. He most recently won the G2 Wood Memorial by 2 ¼ lengths with a 90 BSF. He is 20-1 on the morning line.

Defender: Matt Clarkin

“What a blessing to get randomly assigned to this beast of a horse. The more I read up on Resilience the more I’m convinced I should responsibly put a large sum of money on him. 

For starters, he’s Kentucky bred. A hometown hero for the Derby. If that wasn’t enough, he’s currently playing his best basketball, I mean horse racing. Coming off the win at Wood Memorial Stakes, he’s got to be a confident horse. And a confident horse is a dangerous horse. 

Now, I do have concerns with the jockey, Junior Alvarado, who has never won at the derby and wasn’t riding Resilience for his victory at Wood Memorial. Nevertheless I cannot waver in my belief that Resilience will come out firing. He’s had a great 2024 (2 wins in 3 starts). 

Finally, since I began doing Paddy’s Picks I have chosen my horses strictly off their name. And looking at this field I believe I would have chosen Resilience cause it’s a phenomenal name. That or Catching Freedom, but I wasn’t randomly assigned him so I want nothing to do with him. 

I’m riding (no pun intended) Resilience as I believe his local hero status, recent victory, and wonderful name will carry him to glory.”

20- Society Man

Paddy’s Notes: Society Man is trained by Danny Gargan and will be ridden by Frankie Dettori. He most recently finished second in the G2 Wood Memorial with an 87 BSF. His only career victory came against maiden competition in March. He is 50-1 on the morning line.

Defender: Shaily Jani

“Society, man … am I right folks? He’s misunderstood and underestimated. I think he’s shown some improvement since his debut so I’m excited to see that momentum continue to grow. 

Besides being super fast and talented, society man is also just a real nice guy! I’ve been told that he’s won one race in his five race career. What people don’t realize is that he was actually using the other four races to warm up and he didn’t want the other horses to feel bad about how much better he is. He cares that much about horse society. Isn’t it time for horse society to reciprocate? Just something to think about. Society, man.”

Also-Eligibles:

21- Epic Ride

Paddy’s Notes: Epic Ride is trained by John Ennis and will be ridden by Adam Beschizza. He most recently finished third by 5 ½ lengths in the G1 Blue Grass, earning a 90 BSF. His last race was his only attempt on dirt in five career starts. He is 30-1 on the morning line and drew into the field following Encino’s withdrawal.

Defender: Corbin Gregg

“Epic Ride, much like Rich Strike two years ago, is going to be a winning also-eligible. At post time in 2022, Rich Strike was given 80-1 odds. Epic Ride is poised to do even better. Winning the Leonatus Stakes by four lengths in January and only losing to Encino by a length in the John Battaglia, Epic Ride has key upset potential.

Based on previous races, we could expect Epic Ride to take an early lead and run away with the entire race. Epic Ride is one of the only horses competing that has gotten significantly faster over the past few months. 

However, on his largest stage yet, I expect him to remain at the middle of the pack for the first half of the run before bursting through the ranks. With limited experience on dirt, Epic Ride might have trouble compared to some other more mature participants in the early going.

Don’t be surprised to see Epic Ride far from center coming out of the last turn, only to pull away in the stretch.”

22- Mugatu

Paddy’s Notes: Mugatu is trained by Jeff Engler and will be ridden by Joe Talamo. He most recently finished fifth in the G1 Blue Grass with an 87 BSF. His lone win came in November 2023 against maidens on a synthetic track, and he has never finished better than fourth on dirt. He is 30-1 on the morning line and will require an additional scratch in the main field to qualify.

Defender: Lucas Ludgate

“Availability is the best ability and this horse brings four functioning legs to the table; in the unfortunate event that two of his competitors have but three legs to contribute to this four-legged affair, this natural born killer gets his shot at the crown.

UPDATE (following Encino’s scratch): Cross out that two and replace it with a big fat one because that’s how many more gimpy horses it’s going to take for my boy to enter this race and shock the world. But he won’t be shocking me, that’s for sure. Some may see a back-of-the-pack horse, but they would be telling on themselves — telling on themselves for lacking the vision that I so humbly possess. The vision to identify the heart of a champion in this diamond in the rough. A stallion of the highest order!

Beyer who? I’m a trends man. Some may see a horse who ran an 87 in his last race entering a field full of horses who most recently ran a 95+. Fooey! I see progress. Spot me another horse who in their last race ran 14 Beyer points better than their previous best. You might as well be Ray Charles because you’re not going to find it.

Oh, you want to talk jockeys? I can talk jockeys! In baseball, if you bat .300 you’re in the Hall of Fame. Given this commonly agreed upon fact, what say you about a player who bats 1.000? Rather impressive, no? Well, what if I told you that mounting Mugata is the immortal Joseph Talamo? You may respond “aw geez, is he cut out for the fastest two minutes in sports.” If you were to ask such a question, I’d quickly put your mind at ease by informing you that he, in fact, has a 1.000 career batting average at the Mecca of horse racing, Churchill Downs. Pretty, pretty, pretty good if you ask me.

The verdict is in, Mugatu is your 2024 Kentucky Derby champion; other horses need not apply.* The only hope for the rest of the field is a lack of scratches.

*We are not going to talk trainers because I focus on the athletes in the race. Mike McCarthy has won a Super Bowl, after all.”