With such a crowded, competitive field in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, I figured that all of you could use a little extra help. Continuing a format I debuted at the Kentucky Derby this year, I randomly assigned 15 guests to make winning cases for every horse in this year’s Classic field.
I’m happy to report that many of my contributors stepped up their game to tackle this assignment, which required them to support runners they might not have otherwise. It’s an interesting handicapping exercise that requires them to look for angles, instead of finding them via confirmation bias. More important than its usefulness, I also simply find their analysis entertaining. I hope my readers do as well.
For each horse, I provide basic information for the horse before introducing that runner’s defender. They take it from there. Let’s dig in.
Del Mar, Race 8
Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ¼ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 5:41 p.m. ET
1- Forever Young (Jpn)
Paddy’s Notes: Forever Young has had an extremely successful jetsetting campaign as a three-year-old, one in which he came up just short in the Kentucky Derby while earning nice stakes wins in Japan and the Middle East. He’s 6-1 on the morning line.
Defender: Kreena Vora
“Forever Young is about to be this year’s Breeder’s Cup Classic champion. He’s a horse from Japan who has come to America this weekend to win. No horse crosses oceans just to come up short. In all the races in which he has appeared, he has finished in the top three. In fact, the only race that he did not win was the Kentucky Derby.
In the Derby, Young was roughed up by Sierra Leone, who is also running in this race and has proven to be a disappointment thus far. Despite that unfair treatment, Young and his trainer remained classy in not claiming foul as two other Derby contestants did.
Young has been preparing for the Classic with a race in Japan, but unlike before the Derby, where he ran many races around the world, he has been resting up and staying fresh. His trainer, Yoshito Yahagi, has experience training horses to win the Breeder’s Cup, and feels confident he has produced another winner.
Young is speedy, classy, and determined. After a great racing history, and some slights in the Derby, I have no doubt he will be vindicated when he outruns his opponents and wins the Classic.”
2- Highland Falls
Paddy’s Notes: Highland Falls took a nice step forward to win the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup last time out, defeating Arthur’s Ride in an upset. He’s 20-1 on the morning line.
Defender: Corbin Gregg
“Readers who anxiously await my picks might be a bit disappointed by my defense here. Typically, I like to provide analysis of the long-shots, the horses nobody else wants to give another look. This is decidedly not that.
Highland Falls has been on a bit of a hot streak lately and is nowhere near the least likely horse to win the Classic. City of Troy is the obvious favorite, but Highland Falls is poised for the upset.
City of Troy has won his last three races, all on the lawn. Of his past three races, Highland Falls has placed first in two. He did so on the dirt. His last race was 1 1/4m. Just like the Classic.
It all makes too much sense.
Further, and just as importantly, he got work in on October 18th, which all loyal fans know is my birthday. I just know he was working on an excellent belated gift, defending my honor on race day. Two old souls bound for victory.”
3- City of Troy
Paddy’s Notes: City of Troy is making his first start on dirt after an extremely successful turf campaign in Europe this year. The three-year-old has won three straight G1 races under jockey Ryan Moore for trainer Aidan O’Brien. He’s the 5-2 morning line favorite.
Defender: George McKnight
“This is an intriguing case. City of Troy, a three-year-old colt, has yet to race on dirt, and he’s drawn the rail, which means he’ll likely get a lot of dirt kicked into his face for the first time. However, I’m here to make a case for him, not to dwell on potential obstacles. There are still several reasons why he’s the early-line favorite.
City of Troy has already proven himself as the world’s best turf horse, with wins this year in the Epsom Derby, the Eclipse at Sandown, and the Juddmonte International at York—all by a length or more. His Juddmonte win was especially impressive, as he led from start to finish and set a track record. With Triple Crown winner Justify as his sire, Troy has the pedigree to excel on dirt. Trainer and Wexford lad Aidan O’Brien has had massive success internationally and in the U.S., though he’s still chasing his first Classic win after 17 previous attempts, including two second-place finishes. He’s long overdue for a win.
If City of Troy can adapt to the new surface and establish a strong position early, there’s no reason he can’t bring home the victory for O’Brien and company.”
4- Mixto
Paddy’s Notes: Mixto scored a stunning 22-1 upset in the G1 Pacific Classic to earn a spot in this race. It was his first victory since his maiden victory in November 2023, which also occurred over the Del Mar track. He’s 30-1 on the morning line.
Defender: Maddie Sandholm
“Mixto, Mixto, Mixto, where to start with this horse?
Just kidding, I only have one place I look for my foolproof reasonings… it’s time to see what color those silks are! And Mixto is rocking black and gold chevron silks, which sounds like a winning combination to me.
Though the stars did align for me to have some “actual” analysis here. I was introduced to Mixto with the info that he most recently won the Pacific Classic at Del Mar, where I definitely knew the Breeders’ Cup Classic will also be at this year. Being the diligent Paddy’s Picks contributor that I am, I asked Patrick what the surface was for the Pacific Classic (because that’s much faster than me trying to find that information myself). And would you know it, the two races have identical conditions! Mixto both knows what he’s doing at Del Mar, and is wearing the best color combo of the field, which is the perfect equation for success in my books.”
5- Senor Buscador
Paddy’s Notes: Senor Buscador started 2024 with a bang when he finished second in the G1 Pegasus World Cup and traveled overseas to win the G1 Saudi Cup. He hasn’t been as sharp since and most recently finished fifth in the G1 California Crown. He’s 30-1 on the morning line.
Defender: Emma Moquin
“Senor Buscador! What a horse! This horse while faltering since the Saudi cup has been set up for success here today. He has Rosario as his jockey and has been putting in some great work outs. I believe that today this horse has the ability to get back to his triple digit speed figures that he had earlier this year. Give this horse a chance and he will prove that lightning can strike the same place twice!”
6- Derma Sotogake (Jpn)
Paddy’s Notes: Derma Sotogake finished second in this race last year after a layoff dating back to the 2023 Kentucky Derby. He has not finished better than fifth in three starts this year. He’s 20-1 on the morning line.
Defender: Mia Agostinelli
“Everyone loves a good comeback story and Derma Sotogake has the chance to write his own this weekend. He’s had a career of wins in Japan in the end of 2022, a win at the 2023 UAE Derby and placing in the 2023 Classic.
With morning line odds the same as last year and an impressive drill earlier this week, he’s turning heads with his potential performance. If he can work on staying aggressive through the finish and keeping the pace, he can rival the race favorites.
Do I think he can do it? Absolutely. Do I think he will do it? Maybe. Because nothing is certain and that’s kinda what this whole sport is about. But if Derma Sotogake can pull it off, it will at least give the underdogs something to hope for.”
7- Ushba Tesoro (Jpn)
Paddy’s Notes: Ushba Tesoro was a contender in this race last year and finished fifth, snapping a six-race winning streak. In 2024, he has finished second in three starts, including the G1 Saudi Cup and G1 Dubai World Cup. He’s 12-1 on the morning line.
Defender: Lucas Ludgate
“Pat saves his toughest battles for his bravest soldiers. And i just so happen to be that brave soldier. I have been tasked with defending a foreign horse and i will do so zealously. Can i read his racing form? I absolutely cannot. Can i read his career winnings? Indeed i can. And $16M is indeed a large number, larger in fact, than any other horse on the field
P.S. I love this long flight over for him. Some may see this as a detriment but they clearly dont have his pulse. Ushba loves the mental side of racing. He’s going to dig deep within himself and lock in on the intercontinental voyage, manifesting a Secretariat-esque performance.
You heard it here first. The crown belongs to Ushba.”
8- Pyrenees
Paddy’s Notes: Pyrenees stepped up to G1 competition in June and has since finished second in two attempts at the level. He was most recently the runner-up behind Highland Falls in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup. He’s 30-1 on the morning line.
Defender: Kristina Stevanovic
“Pyrenees has shown improvement over time and this race might be where he proves himself even more following the second place finish in Saratoga. He’s comfortable with the distance and his past four races show this. I think with this field (and gate position), he’ll run mid pack and push hard to close towards the end. If you’re putting your money anywhere, this is a decent long shot to consider.”
9- Fierceness
Paddy’s Notes: Fierceness, the 2023 BC Juvenile winner, stepped back into the limelight in the G1 Travers back in August, when he defeated Thorpedo Anna with a 111 BSF. The three-year-old has earned four wins with triple-digit speed figures in his precocious and erratic eight-race career. He’s 3-1 on the morning line.
Defender: Shaily Jani
“I don’t even have to make a pun this time, the name says it all!! He’s an icon and three years old – freshly out of his troublemaking terrible twos. He’s only gotten stronger, faster, and FIERCER OVER TIME!!! I’d pick him even if I weren’t assigned him. Icon.”
10- Tapit Trice
Paddy’s Notes: After a promising three-year-old campaign, Tapit Trice returned to the track as a four-year-old in July. He was no match for Highland Falls in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup but returned with a better showing to win the G2 Woodward last time out. He’s 30-1 on the morning line.
Defender: Niko Konstantellis
“To my surprise, Tapit Trice opened tied for the longest odds in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. Although this year’s field is certainly stacked, Tapit Trice is no slouch and certainly has the resume to compete at Del Mar this weekend.
2023 was filled with 5 Grade 1 races, beginning with a streak of 4 straight wins carrying over from his last race of 2022. A 7th place finish at last year’s Derby was certainly a disappointing way to end that streak, especially from a horse that was the second favorite before the race. Tapit Trice came into the race as a closer and was comfortable closing from as far back as 8 ⅔ lengths after the opening quarter. However, being behind by 12 lengths at that same mark in an 18-horse field requires a lot from any horse and led him to his 7th-place finish despite showing off incredible closing abilities down the stretch. He finished off his 2023 campaign with 3 straight top 5 finishes, which includes a third-place finish just one month later at the Belmont Stakes.
2024 has seen Tapit Trice return to his winning ways. He has 2 wins in 3 races so far this year, and while his speed figures won’t blow you away, he has figured out exactly how he wants to run, which has led to more consistency. On top of this, he has a new jockey this year. After Luis Saez was on his back the majority of last year, Irad Ortiz Jr. will be in charge this weekend. They won together at the MTH Cup(??) this July, defeating Highland Falls by 5 ¼ lengths, a horse who will also be running in this race (and a horse whose odds are 20-1 compared to Tapit Trice’s 30-1 opening odds).
Despite this success in his 2023 season, Todd Quast, racing manager for majority owner Mandy Pope, believes that Tapit Trice is even better this year, saying, ‘When he came back to run this year, it was a different horse.’ Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher even went as far as to say Tapit Trice ‘may be peaking at the right time.’ Yabba Dabba Doo!”
11- Sierra Leone
Paddy’s Notes: Sierra Leone was a serious contender entering the Kentucky Derby and has been right on the cusp of a high-profile breakthrough ever since. He has never finished worse than third in his career, picking up minor prizes in the Derby, G1 Belmont, G2 Jim Dandy and G1 Travers. He’s 12-1 on the morning line.
Defender: Tyler Zorn
“Sierra Leone has been one of the top horses throughout this entire circuit. Recently the horse has slipped with some 2nd and 3rd place finishes, but continues to post extremely impressive Beyer scores.
Flavien Prat will ride Sierra Leone for the 4th consecutive race, and will look to get over the hump this time.
Many remember Sierra Leone losing in a photo finish at the Kentucky derby. The horse will look to avenge that loss, as well as consecutive losses to fellow competitor Fierceness this time around.
And I believe the horse and jockey have the talent to get it done this time.
Weather and track conditions won’t be much of a factor this weekend in Del Mar.
Sierra Leone tends to start slow and then sprint to the finish. Competing against some strong competition, I would like to see the horse get out of the gates with more of a sense of urgency.
This way Sierra Leone won’t be playing ‘catch-up’ down the stretch.”
12- Arthur’s Ride
Paddy’s Notes: Arthur’s Ride put his elite early speed to good use when he won his stakes debut in the G1 Whitney in wire-to-wire fashion. The 110 BSF he earned that day put him on many people’s radars, but he failed to follow it up in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup next time out. He’s 15-1 on the morning line.
Defender: Chris Murray
“If you take nothing else away from this blurb, know that Arthur’s Ride is fast as hell… sometimes. This horse is awfully inconsistent but when things go his way he measures up with the best of them. I tossed his most recent race on short rest with a poor trip. This trainer has a great track record when his horses get two months or more of rest between races. Arthur’s Ride fits the bill and has demonstrated that under the right circumstances, he can hang against some fierce competition. It’s going to take a lot going his way, but I wouldn’t count this flamethrower out.”
13- Newgate
Paddy’s Notes: Newgate was a Triple Crown contender in 2023 but missed most of the season with an injury. He emerged as a top four-year-old on the West Coast in March when he won the G1 Santa Anita Handicap. After a brutal trip overseas for the G1 Dubai World Cup, he earned a 102 BSF in September at Santa Anita while finishing third in the G1 California Crown. He’s 20-1 on the morning line.
Defender: Rob Patterson
“My sources are telling me that Bob Baffert has won the Breeders’ Cup Classic more than any other trainer in the sport. I have confidence in Newgate. Shock the world. In fact, I think 20-1 is a steal.”
14- Next
Paddy’s Notes: Next has spent the better part of two seasons dominating weaker runners in dirt marathons, where he has proven to be the best in the country by far. In search of his first G1 win, he’s cutting back in distance to take on the very best. He’s 8-1 on the morning line.
Defender: Owen Roche
“For a horse whose entry into the Classic boils roughly down to ‘Why the hell not?’, Next has a path to victory with much more behind it than a simple stab at a seven-million-dollar dollop of gravy atop an already heaping helping of winnings.
The field sports no real blinding speed, a single true frontrunner, and a favorite with a less than ideal affinity for dirt — a recipe for Next and jockey Luan Machado to leave a dominant long-distance dirt strategy relatively unchanged around the shorter course.
Doug Cowans thinks the table is set for the horse that keeps coming back for more. Savvy breadbreakers and oddsmakers may be most thankful for Cowans’ recent assessment : ‘Just like butter, everything was smooth.’”
15- Rattle N Roll
Paddy’s Notes: Rattle N Roll earned six straight triple-digit speed figures as a four-year-old, winning three G3 races in the process. He finished third in the G2 Lukas Classic in September, his only start as a five-year-old. He’s 30-1 on the morning line.
Defender: Ava Peabody
“Celebrated horse Rattle N Roll has the distinct advantage of being named (presumably) (can’t imagine any other origin) after the big band song featured diegetically in the plot of the movie Clue (Shake Rattle and Roll). This conveys a chicness that can only be beneficial. If I am reading the material correctly, Rattle N Roll’s mother was named Jazz Tune, thus supporting my Clue connection beyond a shadow of a doubt. Furthermore, Rattle N Roll was born in Kentucky, which has historically been a great place for fast horses to be born. I understand this is unorthodox but I would like to speak directly to the rider here and suggest that you adorn Rattle N Roll with some noisemakers such as bells. Or perhaps maracas. This will no doubt secure the already likely win.”