Every year, on the eve of the Kentucky Derby, the country’s top three-year-old fillies make their best attempt to upstage the boys in the Kentucky Oaks. In many past renditions, the smaller, all-female event has paled in comparison to the larger, mostly male Derby. This year, however, may be a little different.
While Tiz the Law prepares to romp again tomorrow against a weak Derby field, this year’s Oaks field features two of the most compelling fillies in recent memory. Gamine, the inexperienced superstar, will face off against Swiss Skydiver, the battle hardened powerhouse, in a highly anticipated showdown that’s been building for months.
To properly analyze this star-studded event, I realize that I might need some assistance. Emma Moquin, my dependable staff writer and younger sister, was up to the task, and will go through the field with me. Her notes will be followed up by my take on each entrant, and our bottom-line predictions are included at the end of the article.
1- Swiss Skydiver
Emma’s Notes:
- Excellent excellent speed figures
- Great jockey-trainer percentages
- Good workout
- Has run this distance before
- Has beaten Speech (4) and Shedaresthedevil (7)
- Has lost to Bayerness (6)
- A contender
Pat: There is no filly in this race better prepared than Swiss Skydiver. Trained by Ken McPeek, she’s run at eight different tracks over the course of her nine-race career, so shipping back to Churchill Downs won’t be an issue. She’ll have to run 1 1/8 miles, but she already run that far when she ran very gamely against the boys in the G1 Blue Grass Stakes. She followed that performance with another brilliant start at Saratoga, winning the G1 Alabama going 1 1/4 miles with a 102 BSF.
She’s a special filly that has only gotten better as she’s matured, and I don’t expect her to take a step back now. Comparing her to past Kentucky Oaks winners, I believe she could easily compete with the likes of Serengeti Empress, Monomoy Girl, and Abel Tasman. This year, however, I believe she’s met her match.
2- Tempers Rising
Emma’s Notes:
- Not a big Leparoux fan
- Bad speed figures
- Average workouts besides her last work
- I wouldn’t pick this horse to win
Pat: I’m not sure that this filly would be favored in a standard allowance race, and now she’s trying her luck in the Kentucky Oaks. In 10 career starts, she’s only managed one win, and she hasn’t competed in stakes competition since March, when she came up short in the G2 Fair Grounds Oaks, finishing second in the best performance of her career with a meager 82 BSF. She has never demonstrated the level of speed necessary to win this race, which makes her an unappetizing long shot.
3- Donna Veloce
Emma’s Notes:
- Not a big Santana fan either
- Santana has never ridden this horse before
- This isn’t a great jockey trainer combo
- Horse has good speed figures, but not the best against this field
- Last race was in March, but she did beat Speech (4)
- I don’t like this horse
Pat: I wouldn’t sleep on this filly. Many bettors will look at her Beyer speed figures in the 80s, compare them to the high-100s of Gamine, and instantly toss her. Shrewder horseplayers, however, will look a little deeper and realize that she’s one of the classiest runners in the race. In only her second start, trainer Simon Callaghan decided she was ready for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, where she went off as the favorite in a race featuring some of the best female two-year-olds in the country. She finished second by a neck in a very promising performance for a very inexperienced runner.
After one more start at two, Donna Veloce was given time off and made her three-year-old debut in March. In the G3 Santa Ysabel, she won easily by four lengths, defeating fellow runner Speech with an 88 BSF. She hasn’t raced since, which may lead many to dismiss her for not demonstrating speed on paper. What they’ll miss is that her speed figure that day was one of the highest in her class at that time. It only looks slow in comparison because three-year-olds get faster as the year goes on. Many of her competitors were running just as fast at the time, and have gotten faster throughout the year. She’s likely matured as well but simply hasn’t been racing, which makes her very dangerous as a wild card here. Winning off a six-month layoff is extremely difficult in this scenario, but at 15-1 on the morning line, she’s definitely worth a second look.
4- Speech
Emma’s Notes:
- I love Castellano and I like him with the trainer McCarthy
- It is important to note this horse has lost to Gamine, Donna Veloce, and Swiss Skydiver
- Based on her speed figure though, she has vastly improved since she raced the rest of these horses
- Lost to Gamine only by a neck
- This horse is on the rise and should not be overlooked
Pat: For several months, Speech had a serious problem as a bridesmaid while competing against some of her fellow runners in this race. She finished second in three straight starts, losing to Donna Veloce, Gamine, and Swiss Skydiver in the G3 Santa Ysabel, an optional claiming event, and the G2 Santa Anita Oaks respectively. It looked like more of the same as she prepared to face Venetian Harbor in the G1 Ashland, but then something changed. Speech finally made it over the hump, pulling away from her formidable foe to win by three lengths with a 101 BSF.
That race makes her competitive here, but I think she’s well placed as the third choice in betting. She almost defeated Gamine going around two turns at Oaklawn, but what Gamine has done since has been phenomenal. Meanwhile, Swiss Skydiver defeated her easily and has improved in two subsequent starts. She’ll have to take another step forward to win here, but she may have shown her hand last time out.
5- Gamine
Emma’s Notes:
- This is admittedly a great jockey trainer combo with the stats to back it up, despite my hatred for Bob Baffert
- This horse is absolutely the horse to beat and the understandable favorite
- The only horse to come close to beating this horse was Speech who lost by a neck
- Has the best speed figures in the race
- She speaks for herself
Pat: For my money, I don’t believe there’s been a three-year-old filly as talented as Gamine since Rachel Alexandra, over a decade ago. She’s only raced four times, but Bob Baffert knows what he’s doing, and he has a really, really gifted animal here. Her performance two starts back in the G1 Acorn overshadowed Tiz the Law’s performance later that day in the Belmont Stakes. That field featured several former Breeders’ Cup runners, and she laid waste to them in a 19-length victory. She shortened back to seven furlongs in her next start, where she ran into a formidable foe in Venetian Harbor. They dueled through the backstretch and into the turn, but when they hit the stretch, she pulled away effortlessly to win by seven lengths. Her main foe in this race is Swiss Skydiver, but she had an additional week of rest over her foe to prepare for this start.
There’s really only one issue to address, and it’s here that Swiss Skydiver has an edge. While S.S. has already run at the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles, Gamine will have to run the longest distance of her career in this start. She’s only attempted two turns once, when she nearly lost to Speech at Oaklawn back in May. That being said, Baffert claims that the distance won’t be an issue, and even more interestingly, he has also said that she may be just as effective coming off the pace as she is on the lead. Rating hasn’t been a part of this filly’s game plan up to this point, but if she’s capable of it, she only becomes more dangerous.
In the end, none of this analysis is really necessary for regular readers of this blog. I’ve been touting Gamine for months now, not only as the best three-year-old filly in the country, but also as the most likely candidate, male or female, to break up Tiz the Law’s Triple Crown bid in the Preakness. This race has to be the stepping stone.
6- Bayerness
Emma’s Notes:
- I’m not completely familiar with this jockey trainer combo, but their jockey percentage is pretty good
- This horse has had great workouts
- Bad speed figures
- This horse has been beaten by Shedaresthedevil, Dream Marie, and Swiss Skydiver
- I can’t see her standing a chance
Pat: She finished third in the G3 Indiana Oaks last time out behind fellow runner Shedaresthedevil. She didn’t get the best trip that day and could improve with better luck. That being said, she’s badly overmatched here.
7- Shedaresthedevil
Emma’s Notes:
- Side note: This is quite possibly my favorite name that’s ever been given to a horse
- Pretty average jockey trainer stats
- This horse has average speed figures, not the best by a longshot
- Has beaten Bayerness, but has lost to Swiss Skydiver
- I don’t think this horse will win
Pat: This Brad Cox trainee ran very well last time out, taking the G3 Indiana Oaks with ease over fellow runner Bayerness. However, she seemed to get the perfect trip that day and still only earned an 86 BSF for her winning effort. She’ll have to go much faster to win here.
8- Hopeful Growth
Emma’s Notes:
- GREAT GREAT GREAT jockey trainer percentage
- I don’t like the fact that Franco has never ridden this horse in a race before
- Fine speed figures (big improvement between his last two races)
- Good workouts
- This seems like a fine horse, but I don’t think this horse has a shot at beating Gamine
Pat: At 11-1 odds in the G3 Monmouth Oaks, this filly took a big step forward to win in style by four lengths. Under nearly any other circumstance, it would be a very impressive race that would demand consideration in her next start. This is the Kentucky Oaks, however, and in comparison to some others in this field, she appears to be a little light in terms of both class and speed. She’ll be very good when she finds a more comfortable level.
9- Dream Marie
Emma’s Notes:
- I dislike this jockey trainer combo
- Not great speed figures
- Excellent workouts
- Has lost to Hopeful Growth and Swiss Skydiver
- I do not believe this horse can come in first
Pat: This filly hasn’t won a race since January, and really seemed to struggle last time out in the G3 Monmouth Oaks, a losing effort behind fellow longshot Hopeful Growth. I would be surprised to see her compete here.
Emma’s Pick
W: Gamine
P: Speech
S: Swiss Skydiver
Pat’s Pick
W: Gamine
P: Donna Veloce
S: Swiss Skydiver
Spot on, Nittany Lioness! Totally agree Gamine is the filly to beat in the Oaks.