Keeneland Analysis: Saturday, July 11

This Saturday card in Kentucky is so much more than a Kentucky Derby prep race. Yes, the winner of the G1 Blue Grass Stakes will earn a one-way ticket to The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports. But in addition to that epic feature race, a favored filly sparring with the boys, there are five other graded stakes to discuss. Some of the best horses in the country will be facing off today on two different surfaces and every distance imaginable. If you’re playing Belmont today with a tropical storm warning in effect, then I’d suggest you change the channel. Let’s get into it.

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Race 1

$70,000 Maiden Special Weight for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt

This epic race day begins with two maiden races, and this one has some pretty interesting horses. To save my long winded asides for later in the day, I’ll skip straight to my top four here:

5- Dynacharge

A $75,000 maiden claiming race can be a lot better than some maiden special weights out there, which is good, because this colt ran phenomenally in his last outing. After making a wide, sweeping move around the turn, he was visibly leg-weary but kept on coming nonetheless, falling short by less than a length. He spotted the field ten lengths that day, and there’s not much pace in this race, so he’ll need to be a little closer. However, I can’t ignore a brilliant move like that one, especially in a horse’s three-year-old debut. 

8- Looking at Liberty

This gelding’s last start was a good one, but he was very much a part of one of the most chaotic races I’ve ever seen. There was no form or structure to it on a very sloppy track, and it felt more like a brawl to the wire than a horse race. Anyone who doesn’t believe me can go find the replay. Anyway, this horse has shown solid form in two starts, and while two second places is never a great sign, he has every chance to win this one.

7- Mau Mau

I wonder why Bill Mott tried the turf with this runner last time out. It didn’t really pan out, and he returns to the dirt here. In his start two races back, he made up a fair bit of ground in the stretch but was way too far back to have a say in the finish. There’s not much evidence to suggest he’ll improve, but he’s qualified to run well here.

6- Copper King

This colt must get annoying to watch after a while. There doesn’t appear to be a poor start in his entire career, and yet, he still struggles immensely to find the winner’s circle. Steve Asmussen is definitely trying his best, but his horse simply doesn’t seem intent on winning. 

Order: 5 8 7 6

I really like Dynacharge’s last race, and I believe he can improve on it to take down this maiden special weight field. Looking at Liberty is the likely favorite for good reason, as he’s been excellent lately and is more than talented enough to win here. Mau Mau has an outside chance for Bill Mott, and Copper King is due, but he’s been due for eight or nine races now.

 

Race 2

$70,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Olds, Six Furlongs on the Dirt

I can’t imagine a harder race to make money on. Huge fields of first time starters are simply too unpredictable to properly forecast, making my top four profoundly uninformed:

6- Swill

Brad Cox is fairly successful with first time starters and recruits Joel Rosario to ride for him here. This colt also has a 417 Tomlinson, the largest for the distance in the field.

9- Theridedofalifetime

This is the only colt in the race with a race under his belt, and it was actually a pretty solid performance. He didn’t do anything exceptional at Churchill last month to finish second, but he learned and should come back well here.

10- Directional

Steve Asmussen wins with 19% of his first time starters and this horse shows some quiet speed in the morning. Rafael Santana is his go-to jock, and he rides for him here in a race that could go anywhere.

2- Leblon

I don’t know who Paulo Lobo is, but he’s bringing a horse to Keeneland that’s quick in the morning, has a fair Tomlinson for the distance, and when combined with his profitable angle with first time starters ($12.68 ROI), he becomes an interesting selection.

Order: 6 9 10 2

Swill has as good a chance as literally every other horse in the race. I like Brad Cox and the 417 Tomlinson, which is why I’m supporting him on top.

 

Race 3

$77,000 Allowance for Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Six and Half Furlongs on the Dirt

On a slow day, this race could very well be the feature, but on Blue Grass Day, it’s the third race. These fillies and mares have varying running styles, which always leads to exciting races.

9- Crown Jewel

This filly appears to be superior against this field. In two starts this year, she’s been stellar, recording back-to-back 80 BSFs in a maiden win and allowance place. She’ll likely stalk the pace and make a move on the turn, which is the perfect move to make as an obvious favorite. It also cuts down the field size, as she’ll likely only have to deal with two or three horses in front of her if she gets the right trip.

5- Perfect Happiness

This filly’s first two starts were far superior to her last two, and I may be falling for a horse that simply does better on a wet track. However, there’s reason to believe that bad racing luck was to blame. In her worst loss to date two starts back, she was handled moronically at a route distance, taking a massive early lead and choking it up as quickly as she got it. She had no chance there. She was cut back to six furlongs last time, but was slow out of the gate, rushed up, and then got stuck dueling between horses. She’s coming off a layoff here, and trainer Larry Jones is finally getting her a real jockey, Rafael Bejarano. I’d like to see her run a normal race before I call her a mudder.

1- Tipsy Gal

This is not the same filly that lost to fellow runner Crown Jewel three starts ago. She may lose again, but I don’t believe the margin of defeat will be so wide. In her, this filly improved well to win her own maiden race in impressive fashion. She followed that up with a fourth place finish in a race at this level at this level at Churchill, though I’m not sure a route was the correct distance for her. She’s back to a sprint distance now for Dallas Stewart and Tyler Gaffalione, and I think she’ll be more competitive in July than she was in April.

6- Mundaye Call 

I don’t remember this filly, but I must have tossed her immediately in the G1 Spinaway, which I won with Perfect Alibi. After a short layoff, she shipped to Del Mar to break her maiden with a 70 BSF and then took the winter off. That figure is almost competitive with this field, and she earned it at two, which indicates that her form at three can be even better. Brad Cox is her trainer now, and Joel Rosario is one of the best front running jockeys out there. The only issue is that she’ll have to avoid a hot pace to have any staying power late, and I don’t think she’ll be able to shake loose at any point here.

Order: 9 5 1 6

Crown Jewel appears to be a bit much for this field, although I believe that Perfect Happiness and Tipsy Gal should test him more than he’s been previously. Mundaye Call is a bit of a shot in the dark, and I’m not sure her running style will benefit here.

 

Race 4

Appalachian Stakes (G2) for Three-Year-Old Fillies, One Mile on the Turf

This is the first stakes race of the day, and it’s a small but competitive field. I took a small chance against the favorites with an unproven commodity, but I believe it’s worth the investment:

2- Enola Gay

I think Shug McGaughey knows what he’s doing here. Last year, this filly made two starts, breaking her maiden and finishing fourth in an ungraded stakes at Aqueduct. Both races were run at a sprint distance, but in her three-year-old debut, she’s entered at a mile. McGaughey succeeds with 28% of horses stretching out from a sprint to a route, which tells me that he knows when a horse will take to the added distance. The filly provides compelling evidence as well, with a 414 Tomlinson for a distance she’s untested at. Maybe she needs a race, and maybe this is simply a prep and I’m jumping on the bandwagon too early. However, I think the two favorites are beatable, and I think this is the filly to do it. 

4- Alms

This filly entered her last start undefeated, having won three races at two and another earlier in the year at three. She went off as the favorite in the Tepin Stakes despite drawing a very wide post position, and Paco Lopez actually managed to secure a good trip for her stalking on the inside. However, when she turned into the stretch, she came up flat for the first time in her career, finishing fifth by two lengths. I don’t believe that’s her best possible performance, and she’ll likely improve in her second start off the layoff. However, beyond the break, she didn’t have any excuse last time out, and I feel comfortable trying to beat her.

6- Walk In Marrakesh (Ire)

This filly ran against Alms in the Tepin Stakes, and despite drawing an inside post, she had a much tougher trip than her competitor. As they turned into the stretch, she was boxed in and had nowhere to go, and a gap on the rail opened and then closed, dooming her chance of finding a sneaky rail trip. She finished seventh behind Alms, and while the trip was certainly tougher, I’m not sure how much energy she had left anyway, and it’s obviously impossible to know. Her speed figures indicate that her performance was consistent, and others may improve here while she may not.

3- Evil Lyn

This filly’s last performance is the only one that qualifies her for this race, and she earned that 87 BSF in a $40,000 claiming race. This is a massive step up in class, and while I don’t put much stock in the level at which a figure is earned, this is even a little much for me. To put it in a more tolerable speed handicapping lens, she’s never faced competition like this before, and to beat them, she’ll have to duplicate a figure that she just established against $40,000 animals.

Order: 2 4 6 3

Alms and Walk In Marrakesh are both very talented runners that can win here, but I think that Enola Gay is sitting on a race in her three-year-Old debut. I think she’ll take to the mile distance, and she’s catching her two main contenders coming off of flat performances.

 

Race 5

Madison Stakes (G1) for Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt

This is an excellent race for fillies, and because of the long sprint distance, it tends to attract some routers to compete against more proven sprinters. That’s the case this year, as one of the best fillies in the country will enter the gates at a relatively new distance against horses that have been sprinting for years:

8- Bell’s the One

I don’t believe that this filly is better than Guarana, but she’s a natural sprinter catching the favorite at the right distance. In her last start at six furlongs, this horse came alive, closing well to win convincingly over fellow runners Mia Mischief and Unique Factor. In that race, she had to run down a horse alone on the lead, but this time around, there should be a duel up front. Now, the fractions last time were still beneficial to her running style, but there’s no reason those conditions shouldn’t come up again. She also stretches out slightly to seven furlongs, which she proved she could handle when she won the G2 Raven’s Run last year. 

5- Guarana

She’s an amazing horse that deserves favoritism. Several horses in this race can run to her level on the right day, but none of them would be able to consistently compete with her. She wins this race the majority of the time despite the fact that I don’t think she’s a sprinter. That’s really her only weak point, and I’m not going to take her dominant win against an optional claiming field as a sign that she can be a champion sprinter. I’ll go against her because I believe she’s beatable, but I won’t be surprised.

7- Mia Mischief

She is occasionally brilliant and consistently good. Unfortunately, good won’t cut it here. Two starts back, she ran away from a fairly solid field in an ungraded stakes, earning a 99 BSF in the process. In her next start, she was favored but struggled to get past Break Even while fellow runner Bell’s the One ran past both of them in the stretch. If she runs her best race, she’ll win here, but it’s impossible to know when that performance is coming.

2- Wildwood’s Beauty

This is a weird one, because this long shot fits here. Now yes, she’s spent her entire career in Florida and has partaken in a lot of statebred stakes. That’s not great, but based on speed figures, there were performances last year that could contend here. In dirt races, she’s never finished outside of second place, a stunning statistic for a filly with her experience. She was really hitting his stride in the fall last year when coming off a layoff. This will be her second start off another layoff, and I don’t think the ambitious placement is a coincidence.

Order: 8 5 7 2

I think that Guarana is a little more vulnerable than the tote board will suggest, and as a result, I’m going to wager against her. Bell’s the One should get a perfect closing trip here, and if she can repeat her performance from last time at a distance she’s comfortable with, then she’ll be troublesome here. Mia Mischief is inconsistent but professional, while Wildwood’s Beauty is consistent but lacks class, not that that’s stopped me in the past.

 

Race 6

Shakertown Stakes (G2) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Turf

After nearly an hour of analysis, I still only had this race narrowed down to eight horses. With these evenly matched fields, it really comes down to trips, so handicapping for value is usually the right way to go. My top four, narrowed down from many more possible winners:

2- Wildman Jack

This gelding partook in the Doug O’Neill Pandemic Transatlantic Dubai Voyage (or D.O.P.T.D.V.), and he did very well over there, winning his second start in a G3 stakes. In his return to the states, he picked up right where he left off, winning a photo finish in the G3 Daytona with a 104 BSF. He’s in condition, he has the ability, and he has Mike Smith in the saddle.

9- Texas Wedge

In the G1 Jaipur last month, I expressed concerns that this gelding wouldn’t appreciate the added sprint distance. I was mostly wrong, as this horse still ran very well to finish third behind Oleksandra and Kanthaka. However, now he returns to a shorter sprint that he’s excelled at for his entire career. The fact that he’s running indiscriminately of distance gives me the impression that he’ll run even better when returning to a comfortable distance.  

8- Bound For Nowhere (GB)

Julio Garcia should send Wesley Ward a Christmas card every year for giving him this mount. This horse has been competing at the highest level of turf racing for years now, and he hasn’t lost much of his edge. In his only race this year, though, he lost a photo in a G3 stakes at Santa Anita. It was still an excellent performance, but not one of his best. It’s enough to go against him here, but he’s not the kind of runner I can toss entirely. He’s run in the past two runnings of this race, dominating in 2018 with a 107 BSF and losing in a photo last year to Imprimis. He’ll certainly be around near the end.

10- Totally Boss

I believe I can toss this horse’s last two races. He participated in the Breeders’ Cup last year and got a tough trip against very good horses, and in his last start, he was effectively taken out of contention after checking badly on the turn. Without this  Two races, this horse’s form suddenly looks much better. He was consistently excellent in 2019 while stepping up in class, and he returns here at a distance he’s handled previously, on a Keeneland track he has a win over. I think this horse will be undervalued because of his last two races, and with a better trip, he can certainly exceed the public’s expectations.

Order: 2 9 8 10

Of the two favorites, I think Wildman Jack is better prepared to take this race, though I’m certainly not counting out Bound For Nowhere. Texas Wedge and Totally Boss are two valuable options that I consider worthy adversaries with lower expectations. This is going to be some stretch run, and I can’t wait.

Race 7

Ashland Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Old Fillies, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt

This race would be more entertaining if Swiss Skydiver was in it, but her entry in the G1 Blue Grass is much more fun in the grand scheme of things. I think this is a two-horse race, but the runners underneath aren’t lacking in ability. My top four:

2- Venetian Harbor

In her three-year-old season, this filly has completely run her opponents off their feet in a pair of incredible performances. The only horse that’s managed to run with her is Swiss Skydiver, who defeated her in a heated stretch duel last time out. That filly will be running in the G1 Blue Grass against the boys later on in this card. Meanwhile, this field has a few talented horses, namely Speech, but I think this filly is going to get yet another clear lead, and from there, the result should be fairly straightforward. 

6- Speech

This filly can’t catch a break. In three route attempts, she’s finished second to Donna Veloce, Gamine, and Swiss Skydiver. Donna Veloce was the runner-up in BC Juvenile Fillies last year, Swiss Skydiver is the morning line favorite in the G1 Blue Grass Stakes, and I’ve previously made the argument that Gamine is the best three-year-old in the country. Her race against the G1 Acorn winner was her most impressive, and if she runs back to it here, she actually has a chance against Venetian Harbor. However, she’ll have to chase her down, which could be a very difficult task.

4- Envoutante

I don’t think she’s good enough to beat Venetian Harbor, but I’m a sucker for bold moves around the turn. In her last start, she was ridden confidently by Jose Ortiz and moved past horses like they were tied to the rail. That was a much weaker field than the one she faces here, but she’s obviously in condition and will likely pick up a minor check.

3- Bonny South

That was a pretty weak G2 field this filly took down back in March, especially since Finite didn’t fire in the stretch. She still ran well that day, and she’s undefeated at the distance, but I don’t like her chances when vying the top spot.

Order: 2 6 4 3

Venetian Harbor should get an uncontested lead and run away from Speech, who will run hard in her own right but may have to settle for second again. I’d like to see both of these runners in the Kentucky Oaks in September. Envoutante and Bonny South are more attractive options underneath.

 

Race 8

Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1) for Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Turf

This race always attracts the best turf fillies every year, and this running is no different. Rushing Fall appears to be as strong this year as she was last year, and I made no attempt to beat her when forming my top four:

4- Rushing Fall

When Got Stormy didn’t fire last time out, this mare’s task became much easier. She wired the small field easily and earned a 103 BSF to match her career best efforts last year. She loves Keeneland and this distance, and there’s no reason to suspect that one of the best turf fillies in the country has suffered any regression in form. If she gets beat here, it will be because someone else improves.

8- Toinette

She only seems to run as fast as she needs to, which may explain why her last start seems a little slow on paper. It was almost a three-length win, which makes me believe that the 91 BSF is irrelevant. She’s gone faster in bigger races when I was required of her in the past, and in her second start off the layoff, I think compete well here.

6- Jolie Olimpica (Brz)

She’s obviously a very talented runner, but I’m favoring others here because I’m not sure if a route is what she wants. She’s proven that she can handle a mile, but that performance wasn’t as sharp as her races at sprint distances. Against a weaker field, she could do well, but these are some great horses she’s up against here. I think she’ll run well, but not as well as she did last time out.

2- Juliet Foxtrot (GB)

In her first start off the layoff, she dueled for the lead and was overtaken in the stretch to finish sixth by nearly two lengths. It was her worst performance in a long time, but I don’t think it’s indicative of her ability. She progressed slowly when she first entered the United States back in April 2019, but she eventually reached a point where she could compete with Uni and Got Stormy. I think she’ll be much closer to that form this time around.

Order: 4 8 6 2

Rushing Fall won’t have it easy today, but she’s been tested before and has proven that she can handle it. Toinette is a dangerous horse at a price, as she seems to pick up her game as the competition gets more intense. Jolie Olimpica has ability, but I personally think she’s better suited to shorter distances, Juliet Foxtrot should bounce back and compete here.

Race 9 (FULL RACE ANALYSIS)

Blue Grass Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt

Whoever wins this race is going to Kentucky Derby. Nothing I can write can possibly raise the stakes further. Let’s look at each horse in post position order:

1- Shivaree

This colt seems like a bit of a loser, but his last race really impressed me. He was forced to duel on the outside of Ete Indian, another talented three-year-old, and actually put him away before folding to a pair of closers, including Sole Volante, who went on to finish sixth in the Belmont Stakes. He’ll likely have to duel again here, as Swiss Skydiver, Basin, and Art Collector all like to be near the lead. However, this time he’ll be getting the rail, and I think he might have an outside chance here.

2- Finnick the Fierce

He ran hard chasing fellow runner Art Collector last time out, and that can take a lot out of a horse, which may explain why he wilted badly in the stretch. He’s an honest runner that finished within five lengths of Nadal in the G1 Arkansas Derby two starts back. He hasn’t really had a breakthrough moment yet, but the pace scenario should set up well for him. If he’s going to step up beyond the status of a Derby also-ran, this is the race to do it.

3- Art Collector

Thomas Drury’s colt only has one start that qualifies him in this race, an optional claiming victory over fellow runner Finnick the Fierce that earned him a 100 BSF. That race had four horses in it and he ran wire-to-wire under very slow fractions. It’s nearly guaranteed that he won’t be getting that trip again, though he’s demonstrated ability closing in sprint races earlier in his career. He may be able to work out a stalking or midpack trip behind lot of early pace, although he’s largely untested and the distance is a serious question.

4- Mr. Big News

He capitalized on an Oaklawn track that was very friendly to closers when he won the Oaklawn Stakes back at April at eye-popping 46-1 odds. That being said, there is a lot of pace in this race as well, which may give him another chance. That being said, this field is much tougher than the one he faced that day.

5- Man in the Can

This colt finally stepped out of Arkansas statebred competition last start and ran very well to defeat Dean Martini in an open company optional claiming event. That colt went on to upset the Ohio Derby, which makes this horse’s performance seem even more impressive. He’s proven he can handle the distance, and while he’ll have to improve to win here, he’ll also be getting faster fractions to run into in this one. 

6- Hard Lighting

He finished behind fellow runner Shivaree despite the fact that he was closing into a fast pace. I’m considering others.

7- Swiss Skydiver

Can the filly beat the boys? Based on her recent performance, it’s certainly possible. Unlike Art Collector, she’s been winning on the front end under much faster fractions, which makes her a legitimate pace presence in any race she’s a part of. Ken McPeek wouldn’t enter in such a tough spot unless he was confident, because this filly has already qualified for the Kentucky Oaks. They’re obviously considering the Kentucky Derby, but first, she’ll have to get through some tough runners here at a longer distance.

8- Basin

Beating Charlatan was never a possibility for this runner, but he’s already run honestly. Many of the top runners he’s lost to recently are no longer on the Derby trail, and his one legitimate loss to Mr. Big News came on a closer-friendly track. The pace scenario may not favor him here, but he has a chance at a minor purse.

9- Attachment Rate

Much like Basin, this colt has consistently been a step below the best three-year-olds. He’s run BSFs in the high 80s behind Dr Post, Mischevious Alex, and Maxfield, and a lot will have to happen for him to topple the likes of Swiss Skydiver today.

10- Rushie

An early victim of Charlatan, he improved drastically to in his last start to finish third in the G1 Santa Anita Debra behind Honor A.P. and Authentic. Swiss Skydiver is a talented horse, but she’s not as good as either of those two, and I think this horse has a legitimate chance to take down this field. He should stalk just off the pace and launch a bid on the turn, and that may be enough if the front runner are tired by then. I like him quite a bit in this spot.

11- Hunt the Front

I don’t like this colt at all in this spot.

12- Enforceable

This is a very attractive option here. Earlier in the year, he effectively closed in on exceptionally slow paces in the G2 Risen Star and G2 Louisiana Derby. He didn’t win, but with fractions like those, victory wasn’t in the cards. He returns here off a four-month layoff, and his placement suggests that Mark Casse is confident that his runner fits here. It’s likely that he’ll also be getting much faster fractions today, a luxury he hasn’t had since he won the G3 LeComte. He also has experience at this distance and has run well under difficult circumstances. This is a great value play here.

13- Tiesto

Bill Mott’s pulled some weird stuff in the past with horses switching from turf to dirt at high levels, but if this one beats me, so be it.

Order: 12 10 7 1

If Art Collector runs as well today as he did last time, I’m going to lose some money. The more I look at Enforceable, the more I like him. Betting on a closer to win from out of the clouds is always a dicey proposition, but he’s closed in on slower paces than the one this race should have. Rushie ran really well last time to finish behind Honor A.P. and Authentic, and he can move forward again with a stalking trip here. I want to see Swiss Skydiver in the Kentucky Derby, but I don’t think this pace scenario will suit her, especially as she tries a new distance. Shivaree is a stubborn front runner that I find charming, so I’m throwing him in. That’s right, I’m picking Shivaree over Art Collector because I find him charming. You heard that right.

Race 10

$79,000 Allowance for Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, 1 3/16 Miles on the Turf

You don’t need a race intro. Everyone gets it, it’s a cooldown race to end the day. It isn’t bad either. My top four:

3- Romantic Pursuit

She stands a bit above the rest of these runners, and never really has an off day. In her first race off the layoff, she was very game in the stretch but couldn’t hold off Gentle Ruler, who just won a race at Belmont as I’m writing this. It was her best performance to date, and she should do well against this field if she repeats it.

4- Coco Chanel

I don’t get why this mare is 15-1 on the morning line. That’s crazy to me. No, she hasn’t won a race in forever. I get that, but she hasn’t been at this level since April 2019, when she finished second on this turf at a mile. In her last race, she finished 10th in the G3 Mint Julep, but only lost the race by three lengths. She’s way more talented than her odds currently indicate, and I feel as though she’s a necessary addition to exotic bets.

2- Summer in Saratoga

In her last race, this four-year-old won at an allowance level below this one, thought that victory may be better than it appears. She was the only one closing in on crawling fractions, which shows that she was running very well against the race situation. She truly won because she was the best horse, and would’ve gone faster if it had been in her favor. Corey Lanerie stays on to ride, and I think this horse can do some running at this higher allowance level.

6- Kuora (Per)

These South American shippers never work out for me, but I’m always so intrigued. There’s so much mystery surrounding them because the racing down there is, for the most part, subpar to racing in the United States. They always come north after dominating in their home countries, and their first races here are always a total shot in the dark. I like this one because Mike Smith seems to be riding her for fun, and he’s the last guy I would accuse of wasting his time.

Order: 3 4 2 6

Romantic Pursuit is a notch above these other runners, and she always gives a good account of herself. Coco Chanel is an egregious overlay in this race and needs to be considered again by bettors. Summer in Saratoga is running up against some tough competition here, but her last race was very impressive and makes her a contender. Kuora is a Peruvian horse, and I don’t see that very often.