Do people read on their morning commutes? I guess most people drive and don’t do all that much reading. But for those of you with the ability to check in on Paddy’s Picks this morning, perhaps I can something to get your Wednesdays started right. Welcome to the International Spotlight.
Every now and again, I notice a big race occurring somewhere in the world that American racing fans will likely never acknowledge. These races may appear peripherally to Americans on Breeders’ Cup days, but for the most part, some of the most talented runners in the world remain a mystery to them. I’d like to change that.
Later on this morning, a field of seven will break from the gates at Goodwood Racecourse in the 2022 Sussex Stakes, one of the premier races in Great Britain. The top-ranked horse in the world, Baaeed, is looking to extend his undefeated streak to nine races, but two Breeders’ Cup champions figure to provide some semblance of competition. Let’s take a look.
Goodwood, Race 4
Sussex Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 Mile on the Turf
Post Time: 10:35 a.m. EST
1- Baaeed (GB)
Flightline continues to make his case stateside, but this colt remains the best horse in the world by a wide margin for now. Undefeated in eight starts, he has run flawlessly on two occasions this year, including the G1 Queen Anne Stakes, which he won over fellow runners Order of Australia and Chindit. This will be his first race of 2022 around a turn, but it’s not something he’s struggled with in the past. The only potential snag is that he’ll carry 136 pounds, more than he has ever had to previously, but it still may be best to watch him run.
2- Bathrat Leon (Jpn)
After a terrible stint on the turf in Japan, this colt traveled to Meydan and scored a shocking gate-to-wire upset at 66-1 in the G2 Godolphin Mile last time out. He’ll likely try to get the lead again here, but a return to the turf against horses of this caliber isn’t ideal.
3- Chindit (Ire)
He ran solidly to win the G2 Summer Mile last time out, taking full advantage of class relief after losing to fellow runner Baaeed in two straight races. Despite the positive result, however, I don’t see any reason to expect improvement as he steps back up in class.
4- Order of Australia (Ire)
The 2020 Breeders’ Cup Mile winner has not won a G1 stakes race since, but his recent performances have been competitive enough to make him a contender for a minor prize here. His win at seven furlongs in the G2 Romanised Minstrel Stakes was commanding but also came against much weaker competition.
5- Alcohol Free (Ire)
She’s not proven at this level but she’s moving in the right direction. Following a loss to fellow runner Baaeed three starts back, the filly ran evenly off a short layoff before returning in the G1 July Cup and pulling off a solid 14-1 upset. That win came at six furlongs and she still doesn’t seem to be close to ready for this spot, but she’s getting there.
6- Angel Bleu (Fr)
He hasn’t been the same horse at three as he was at two, and the learning curve has proven to be steep. A ninth-place finish in the G1 St. James’s Palace Stakes wasn’t a very encouraging prep for this start and improvement will have to come from nowhere.
7- Modern Games (Ire)
Hmm. I’m not saying the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner has a chance of beating Baaeed. Certainly not. But I’m tempted to say something along those lines. Charlie Appleby and William Buick have been brought to my attention after some dominant visits to the U.S., and the betting public in Europe clearly loves this colt despite a few losses this year. 1 ¼ miles was too much to ask in Chantilly two back and he came up short in Deauville at seven furlongs last time out. The mile seems perfect and he’s getting an eight-pound handicap, but Baaeed remains formidable.
Order: 1 7 4 5
It’s always tempting to go against a supposed certainty, especially when there are problems. As an American racing fan born in 2000, I’ve never seen a horse carry 136 pounds, and Baaeed (GB) has never had to carry it either. But if that’s my only knock on the superstar, it’s simply not enough to deny him the victory in a field mostly composed of runners he has handled in the past. Modern Games (Ire) represents new blood in the field and I believe he’s finding his preferred distance and maturing slowly to a point where he can compete at this level. It’s unfortunate for him to encounter such a stiff competitor in a situation that seems to favor him otherwise.
Order of Australia and Alcohol Free have both lost to Baaeed in previous starts and haven’t shown quite enough to suggest that they can turn the tables. That being said, they’re both rock solid runners and have every chance to pick up a minor check.