Paddy’s Picks goes international today with early morning analysis for the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, the richest horse race in France. I intended to write more for Paddy’s Picks this week, but an illness has prevented me from doing much of anything productive in recent days.
An extremely entertaining and challenging 20-horse race at Longchamp was supposed to be the culmination of my efforts, but it will instead have to serve as my return to work on the website. Fortunately, there are many days worth of angles and analysis in this event, more than enough for any handicapper on a Sunday morning. Let’s take a look.
Longchamp, Race 4
Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ½ Miles on the Turf
Post Time: 10:05 a.m. EST
1- Mishriff (IRE)
The 2021 Saudi Cup winner always deserves a second look, but it’s hard to respect him as a contender after five losing starts this year. He’s a deep closer that always makes a move, but he’s been outkicked by several foes in recent races. In the G1 Irish Champion Stakes last month, he seemed well-positioned in the stretch but finished flatly behind fellow runners Luxembourg, Onesto and Vadeni. I’m looking elsewhere.
2- Torquator Tasso (GER)
Last year’s Arc winner seems to be in similarly strong form this year, and bettors are doubtful to let him go at 70-1 odds this time around. Following a strong runner-up finish in the G1 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes, he probably should’ve won the G1 Preis Von Baden with ease. A surprising defeat in that German stakes, one he won last year before taking the Arc, is somewhat concerning, but he still finished strong in that start despite encountering some trouble in the stretch. I love his closing kick and he could be in the mix in this field, but I don’t know if he can win two years in a row here.
3- Mare Australis (IRE)
He was a commanding winner at the G2 level back in June, but his next start in the G1 Grand Prix Saint Cloud was obviously a disappointment. It’s also likely he suffered a physical setback that day, one that has likely been dealt with following a three-month layoff. There’s a lot going against him in a tough spot.
4- Sealiway (Fr)
He’s been a solid contender at this level for some time now, even if his triumphs in G1 competition have been sparse. I’m glad he got to prepare for this race with a start in September coming off a layoff dating back to May, but even under the circumstances, he should’ve done a little better than fourth against G3 competition. If he simply needed a race, however, he could prove dangerous at a price.
5- Alenquer (Fr)
This colt is relatively unproven at the highest level of racing, having finished sixth in back-to-back G1 starts in Britain and Ireland. He finished ninth in this race last year and hasn’t improved significantly as a four-year-old.
6- Deep Bond (Jpn)
One win in Japanese G2 competition in March isn’t nearly enough to qualify him as a contender here. The five-year-old hasn’t come close to competing with fellow runner Titleholder in his last two starts.
7- Broome (IRE)
His poor showing in July can be excused, but subsequent disappointments at Saratoga and Leopardstown are harder to dismiss. He doesn’t seem to be trainer Aidan O’Brien’s primary focus in this field.
8- Stay Foolish (Jpn)
This elder statesman is trying to become the first seven-year-old to win the Arc since 1932. He’ll be at a disadvantage. I like that he got a start in France in August, but he’s never excelled at the highest levels on turf and maintains a 4-for-33 lifetime race record. His only start in his home country this year was in the G1 Takarazuka Kinen, when he finished ninth behind fellow runner Titleholder.
9- Mostahdaf (IRE)
The G3 September Stakes proved to be a total farce for this colt last time out, as he won it with condescending ease. That race was on the all-weather track at Kempton against a weak field — not the most helpful prep for a race like this.
10- Mendocino (GER)
He closed to beat fellow runner Torquator Tasso last time out, and that means he had to close fast. It’s the sort of performance bettors should watch twice, even if his form beside that start is lacking. He’s clearly in sharp form after a handful of dull starts earlier this year, but even if he did beat last year’s Arc winner, a win in a four-horse field isn’t quite enough to gain top consideration here. A minor prize is possible.
11- Titleholder (Jpn)
This is where things get trickier. In some meets at Saratoga, I struggle to compare New York and Kentucky horses, so you all have to sympathize as I try to split hairs between the best horses in the world from five different countries. If a horse from Japan is going to win the Arc, it’s this colt, who’s been rattling off impressive victories against large fields all year. The layoff since June is a concern, but horses with tactical speed have a way of bouncing back quicker, as he’s demonstrated on several occasions over the past few months. He’s one to consider.
12- Bubble Gift (Fr)
He took two convincing defeats to fellow runners Alpinista and Mare Australis earlier this year and his most recent effort in September could have been sharper. Hard to see.
13- Grand Glory (GB)
She’s one of two mares in this year’s race, but I’m not sure how well she stacks up to fellow runner Alpinista, much less the rest of the field. She came along quickly with a pair of cheap wins in the spring but she’s already hit a wall trying to step up in class and the waters only get deeper from here.
14- Alpinista (GB)
Undefeated in seven starts in the last two years, it’s hard not to like this mare with proven form against the boys, including fellow runners Torquator Tasso, Mendocino and Bubble Gift. Between August 2021 and July 2022, she ran exclusively against mixed company and won four straight in Germany and France. Her return to her home country in August was also a return to all-female racing, when she won the G1 Yorkshire Oaks in typically sharp fashion. There are more tested runners in the field, sure, but she’s a charming type.
15- Vadeni (Fr)
French fans thought they had a world beater when this lightly raced three-year-old took the G1 Prix du Jockey Club by five lengths. Though he remains a qualified contender, subsequent starts have revealed what he truly is — a runner dependent on circumstance. In the G1 Coral Eclipse at Sandown, the deep closer benefitted from a trip down the center while fellow runner Mishriff got bunched up in traffic. Next time out though, he lost the G1 Irish Champion Stakes to fellow runners Luxembourg and Onesto, getting bunched up behind horses and ducking into more traffic on the rail. Chantilly, not Longchamp, has been his preferred course this year in any case, but he seems to have a strong chance if jockey Christophe Soumillon can find the right trip from an inside post position.
16- Al Hakeem (GB)
This three-year-old is extremely precocious with just six starts to his name. He’s won four of them in convincing fashion but hasn’t managed to break through in G1 competition, losing his only attempt in convincing fashion back in June. This is a big ask.
17- Onesto (IRE)
He was very brave moving in between horses in the G1 Irish Champion Stakes, even if it’s also hard to deny that he was simply outfinished by fellow runner Luxembourg that day. There’s no shame in losing to the race favorite by a half-length, and his win in the Grand Prix de Paris was stylish and demonstrates form over the Longchamp turf. If he can improve in his second start off a two-month layoff, he has every chance here.
18- Westover (GB)
Which version of this lightly raced runner are we going to see? In June, he made an absolute mockery of the G1 Irish Derby, winning by seven lengths over a pitiable field of eight. The victory earned him notoriety and favoritism in the G1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes the following month, but something was clearly wrong when he faded late to lose by 18 lengths. He hasn’t raced since.
19- Do Deuce (Jpn)
This Japanese runner managed to avoid fellow runner Titleholder’s path of destruction in a few nice wins in restricted age races. I like that the trainer brought him over a month early and prepped him in a G2 race at Longchamp, though I would have liked to see a little more from him that day. He’s not there yet.
20- Luxembourg (IRE)
He’s passed nearly every test that’s been asked of him so far, but it’s tough to take a favorite with the least experience in a race like this. The three-year-old has only faced older horses at the G1 level once, when he took the G1 Irish Champion Stakes last time out. He looked good doing that, but he also seemed better prepared for that start than he does for this one. Without any experience at the distance in his French debut, this race will prove to be another test. Trainer Aidan O’Brien certainly has faith in him, but I can’t say I’m interested at a short price in a large field.
Order: 17 14 11 20
Onesto (IRE) couldn’t get the job done off the layoff at Leopardstown last time out, but he seems more prepared this time around. He won at this distance at Longchamp in the summer and he’s proven against some of the most respected runners in this field. Alpinista (GB) is a very easy runner to root for and the gray mare has every chance to continue her winning streak with experience and class to spare. Titleholder (Jpn) is the wild card in the race, a dominant Japanese runner without any experience in Europe coming off a four-month layoff. He has every chance to fire fresh. Meanwhile, if Luxembourg (IRE) beats me, I can accept it at a short price, as my handicapping experience indicates there are more interesting runners here at more interesting prices.