How to Win the Pegasus World Cup Dirt

This year’s Pegasus World Cup (PWC) will be the fifth running of the event at Gulfstream Park, and the field is highly competitive despite not befitting the race’s grand name. At one point in time, the PWC was created to accompany great racing events like the Breeders’ Cup and Dubai World Cup. However, since its inception in 2017, the race has only lost prominence despite never gaining an international foothold in the first place.

In 2019, the first PWC Turf was added to the schedule, accompanying the dirt race in an attempt to attract more foreign horses. It hasn’t worked thus far, and a purse reduction of the dirt event from $12 million to $3 million has only further weakened the event’s appeal.

Despite its setbacks, the PWC is still a prominent event that regularly attracts the best runners in the United States, and over four runnings on the dirt, patterns are already emerging. Trainers, jockeys and bettors alike can take note of what it’s taken to win the PWC Dirt in the past, because the winner this year could very well do it the same way. Here are a few pointers, from a guy equipped with Equibase charts and a couple of replays on YouTube.

1. Get to the rail.

The first key to winning the Pegasus World Cup (PWC) Dirt is understanding the Gulfstream racecourse. At 1 ⅛ miles, the dimensions of the track in Hallandale Beach, Florida, are extremely unforgiving for horses breaking from the outside. The distance between the starting gate and first turn is extremely short, and many horses each year are caught wide and effectively eliminated from contention from the outset.

In the race’s inaugural running in 2017, fans were teeming with anticipation as the new race allowed for a $12 million rematch between Arrogate and California Chrome following their rousing stretch duel in the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic. However, when post positions were drawn before the race, many handicappers tempered their expectations. 

Arrogate had drawn the 1-post, a dream position that would keep him inside for the entire race, while California Chrome had to break from the 12-post. The race played out along those lines, as Arrogate settled into an easy stalking position while Chrome got caught five-wide around both turns. Arrogate continued his streak of immaculate victories while his older rival finished up the track in his farewell race.

Since then, each of the three other winners of this race have managed to reach the inside part of the track as well. In 2018 and 2020, respectively, Gun Runner and Mucho Gusto broke from wide posts but managed to get in by the turn, while 2019 winner City of Light had everything his way from the 3-post and cruised home without ever straying from the 2-path.

In this year’s running, Sleepy Eyes Todd and Coastal Defense will run from the two post positions furthest inside, giving them a natural advantage over their opponents. However, Independence Hall and Knicks Go, the favorite, aren’t exactly at a disadvantage in the 3- and 4- posts, and should also manage a reasonable trip without much strain early on.

2. Stay close to the pace.

While four runnings of any race makes for a small sample size to make any definitive conclusions, it’s interesting to note that a horse has not yet come from behind to win the PWC Dirt. Gulfstream Park is traditionally favorable to front running horses, and this pattern has been reflected in the track’s biggest race.

All four winners have won the race in a similar way, stalking the pace and launching a bid around the far turn. All of their victories have been clear cut as well, with Gun Runner’s victory by 2 ½ lengths in 2018 being the closest finish since the inaugural rendition. Several closers, like Shaman Ghost (2017) and Seeking the Soul (2019), have managed to make up ground late to be runner-ups, but have never come close to challenging for the top prize.

While many horses in this year’s race have the ability to run near the front, no entrant has more significant early speed than Knicks Go. That being said, many of his best performances have come when gunning for the lead, and if he were to try to run that way again Saturday and win, he would become the first horse ever to win the PWC Dirt wire-to-wire.

3. Be an American racehorse.

Beyond a large purse and very lofty ambitions, the concept of the PWC as an international event, a world cup as the name suggests, is a farce. The establishment of the Saudi Cup in February has only made matters worse, but the same question has existed since the PWC was founded: Why would a non-American trainer ever send their horse to run 1 ⅛ miles on the dirt in Florida in January?

At last year’s Breeders’ Cup World Championship, 42 foreign born horses competed across 14 races, with five of them winning in turf events. In 24 runnings of the Dubai World Cup, 11 winners were trained in the United States, 10 winners were trained in the United Arab Emirates, two winners were trained in Europe and one winner was trained in Japan. These two events have attracted horses from around the world, justifying their titles.

In four years, only two foreign born horses have ever competed in the PWC Dirt, one from Mexico and one from Argentina. Without the massive purse it once boasted, the race has become a major American race masquerading as something greater.

4. Be Bob Baffert.

In three of the four runnings of the PWC Dirt, Bob Baffert has entered at least one horse in the race. He’s already won twice with Arrogate (2017) and Mucho Gusto (2020). The Baffert factor isn’t specific to any one race though, as his acumen for training on the dirt extends to the three Triple Crown races, the Breeders’ Cup and seemingly every allowance race in California for the past 20 years.

This year, Baffert doesn’t have any horse entered in the PWC Dirt, as his current ace Charlatan will skip the event in favor of the Saudi Cup in February. This will give another trainer an opportunity to cash a check while he chases bigger purses.

5. Win at the Breeders’ Cup first.

Entering the PWC Dirt with a victory in the previous year’s Breeders’ Cup has been extremely beneficial for a majority of the race’s winners.

Arrogate and Gun Runner were both Breeders’ Cup Classic winners before they took the big race at Gulfstream, and while 2018 Classic winner Accelerate lost the PWC Dirt in 2019, he was defeated by City of Light, who was coming off a victory in the Dirt Mile. The 2020 running didn’t feature any Breeders’ Cup winners, making Mucho Gusto the first to win the PWC without a win at the event.

The retirement of 2020 Classic winner Authentic weakens the potential field for this race, but Knicks Go will look to resume the streak after his victory in last year’s Dirt Mile.

6. Don’t be the underdog.

In addition to being a fake world cup at a strange distance, the first few runnings of the PWC Dirt haven’t even been fun from a betting perspective. The longest shot to win the race was Mucho Gusto, who won last year at 7-2 odds. Before that, all three winners had gone off at 2-1 or less.

This year’s race appears to be more exciting in that respect, as Knicks Go is a more tepid favorite at 5-2 on the morning line. The race is fairly wide open, as several evenly matched contenders will likely lead to split opinions and potentially larger payoffs. That being said, gamblers who swing for the fences in this race won’t have history on their side.

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A (Brief) Return to Paddy’s Picks

Paddy’s Picks is back this weekend with analysis and commentary for the 2021 Pegasus World Cup! In addition to this piece, other articles set to be released include:

  • Paddy’s Picks analysis for the full Gulfstream card Saturday
  • Horse-by-horse breakdown of both PWC events, featuring guest handicapper Emma Moquin
  • Two versions of “The Casual Bet,” featuring various guest commentators providing their uninformed opinions with confidence for Gulfstream’s preeminent racing event
  • Introduction of “Modern Day Legends: The Brief Resurgence of the American Superhorse,” a new longform series by Patrick Moquin telling the story of six equine legends that dominated the U.S. dirt racing scene from 2014 to 2018

All of this content will be released exclusively on Paddy’s Picks, so make sure to check back throughout the weekend for more. To receive updates when articles are released, leave a like on the Paddy’s Picks Facebook page, where I’ll be posting each piece as they come out.