As much as I wanted to do a full-card analysis of Saratoga today, a mix of Haskell analysis, other duties earlier this week, and general fatigue kept me from making it happen. As a small consolation to readers, I’ve put some of my notes about today into written form. These aren’t necessarily picks, but simply horses that I intend to keep an eye on as the season progresses. On a big day like today, there’s plenty to observe and learn from, and horses with bright futures appear in nearly every race.
Race 2
$50,000 Starter Allowance for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
5- Repo Rocks
After 11 tries, this colt finally broke his maiden at Belmont last time out for Thomas Morley, though one could argue he could have broken it three starts back if not for bad luck. It took the three-year-old a while to figure himself out on the track, but he has vastly improved recently and finished third back in April behind First Captain and Mahaamel, two extremely talented three-year-olds hoping to make some noise in stakes races as the year winds on. Horses that take a while to break their maiden often respond well in their first starts against winners, and it will be interesting to see if he can improve on the 88 BSF he earned last time out.
Race 5
$100,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Olds, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
7- Montauk Point
Highly touted first time starters at Saratoga often go on to become extremely successful runners, and there are two in the fifth race that I believe are worth keeping an eye on. Montauk Point was purchased for $550,000 last year and will make his debut for Shug McGaughey with Jose Ortiz aboard. He hasn’t lit up the work tab, but few of McGaughey’s runners ever do. He may need a race, but his form may be important later this season.
9- Chattalot
Steve Asmussen always tends to have live two-year-olds shipping up from Kentucky, which earns this one an automatic mention. Sold for $110,000 at the OBS sale earlier this year, this colt lit up the Keeneland training track back in June with two bullet works under 47 seconds going four furlongs. He’s a prime candidate for a debut victory.
Race 6
$100,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Olds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
4- Portfolio Company
Chad Brown isn’t as well known for his first time starters, but they’re never runners to be ignored either, and this one ticks all the boxes. This colt is debuting for Brown at a route distance on the turf for Klaravich Stables, who purchased him at auction for $125,000. Kitten’s Joy is one of the go-to turf sires in the country and his work tab is efficient, if not outstanding.
Race 8
$103,000 Allowance for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
1- Beau Liam
This three-year-old for Steve Asmussen came out of the swinging in his first start, dusting a field of maidens at Churchill by seven and a half lengths with a 94 BSF. The comeptition gets much tougher here and a stalking trip on the rail could be trouble, but this colt is only one or two good starts away from a stakes debut.
5- Ten for Ten
McGaughey has had this colt on the shelf for quite awhile after a somewhat promising two-year-old season. He placed in two graded stakes in New York with a front running style that he will have to develop beyond to continue improving. Let’s see how he has developed.
10- Crowded Trade
He was on the Derby trail for Chad Brown and actually started in the G1 Preakness, but this runner probably hasn’t lived up to expectations by this point in the year. He takes a drop in class as many are stepping up here, and it will be interesting to see if he can get back into form and return to higher levels later in the summer.
12- Mahaamel
If not for an untimely meeting with First Captain in his first start, this colt would be an undefeated monster for Todd Pletcher. The 99 BSF he earned last time out was a holdover from his impressive place finish on debut, and a mere replication of that performance would likely be enough to win here, if not by as much as his maiden win. I’m curious to see how he handles the far outside post.
Race 9
Sanford Stakes (G3) for Two-Year-Olds, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
1- Wit
This Practical Joke colt was green in his first start and still dusted the competition, starting slow but kicking clear of a Belmont maiden field by six lengths at the end. Pletcher gets Irad Ortiz to take over for his brother in his second start, and I think some progression can be expected.
2- Candy Landing
Unlike Wit to his inside, Candy Landing appeared more than ready to go out of the gate in his first start. He dueled very well under hot fractions and pulled away in the end to win by nearly five lengths. He’s the second likeliest here on paper, but progression is a mystery with juveniles.
6- Maryland Brando
I’m only pointing this out to give Gary Contessa some props. I never thought I would see him in New York again, but he finds his way back with a Delaware shipping 2YO coming off a blowout maiden win. Good for him.
Race 10
Diana Stakes (G1) for Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Inner Turf
5- Harvey’s Lil Goil
Bill Mott will try to put the pieces back together with one of his better turf runners here, because her last performance in the G2 New York was uncharacteristic based on her previous form. In a very tough field like this one, a rebound of any sort would be an overwhelmingly encouraging sign.
6- Summer Romance (Ire)
European trainer Charles Appleby is keeping his pair of turf stars in New York, wonderful news for any American fan of the turf. Last time out, she made a valiant wiring effort in the G1 Just a Game and came up just short to her stablemate, mentioned below. I don’t see why she can’t try the same thing again because it’s not too hard to run these deep closers off their feet.
7- Lemista (Ire)
Chad Brown found another turf stakes runner with this mare, and with a little more luck, she very well could have defeated Harvey’s Lil Goil in her stateside debut back in May. She’s been on the shelf for a few months, but firing off the layoff is something she just proved capable of.
8- Althiqa (GB)
The other Appleby runner in this race is no less capable. She worked out a perfect trip to take down her front running stablemate last time out in the G1 Just a Game, a race in which no other runner had a chance at the wire. Making it two in a row seems like a distinct possibility, though I have a vague feeling that a shift in momentum is coming.
Race 11
$100,000 Maiden Special Weight for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
8- Askin for a Baskin
Did Jeremiah Englehart know what he had when he debuted this gelding on turf? In his second start, he took to the dirt extremely well, earning a 93 BSF in defeat behind promising three-year-old Mahaamel. He’ll get a softer field this time around, and it will be worth seeing if he can graduate ASAP and tackle bigger fields in the near future.