It’s Whitney Day at Saratoga, and that means that some of the best horses in each division will travel upstate and run in some of the most competitive races of the year. It’s the second most popular day at Saratoga all summer, one where early Breeders’ Cup favorites will be established and new challengers may appear. Most importantly, it’s a day where even casual horse racing fans can tune in to watch.
As I perused the graded stakes for today’s card, a day featuring stars of the sport such as Midnight Bisou, Tom’s D’Etat and No Parole, I realized that I could use a second opinion myself. In what may become a recurring segment, I’m being joined today by two guest handicappers, Lucas Ludgate and Niko Konstantellis, to look over these top notch stakes with me.
Lucas Ludgate is a 20-year-old Bronx resident. Having graduated from Regis High School in 2018, he will soon enter his junior year at Vanderbilt University, where he is pursuing degrees in economics and Spanish. To my knowledge, the high point of his life came on June 1, 2018, when he hit a key RBI double off of Iona Preparatory Upper School pitcher Jack Keenan in the CHSAA baseball quarterfinal.
Lucas has been interested in handicapping for a long time, and has undertaken personal lessons from me for nearly a year now, underlining his dedication to learn the craft. People have grown fatigued talking to me about far more interesting things in much less time.
Nikolas “Niko” “Baby Hercules” Konstantellis is a man with one real nickname and one nickname I just made up. Later this month, he will begin his junior year at the Gabelli School of Business at Fordham University, where he is pursuing degrees in something related to business and sports communication. I don’t know what the high point of his life is, but I have some guesses.
Baby Hercules has been interested in horse racing for several months now, and like Lucas, has been taking lessons from me to learn how to handicap. He is still very much a novice, but has begun making more and more solid observations as he’s progressed, to the point that I believe his opinion is now competent enough to publish. If that sounds like an insult, then readers must not be familiar with me by this point, because that’s a glowing assessment by my standards.
To analyze each race, Lucas and Niko gave me a brief analysis that I’ve included below. Niko’s analysis was delivered verbally, and I’ll be making my best effort to transcribe his thoughts. Lucas gave me notes, and while the plan was originally for me to transcribe them as well, I think they have value on their own, so I’ll be publishing his shorthand thoughts as he wrote them. I’ll also be including brief observations of my own, while more in-depth analysis will be provided on my daily article.
Race 5
Personal Ensign Stakes (G1) for Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
Niko
At the end of the day, Midnight Bisou looks too good to lose here. Outside of losses in the Breeders’ Cup and Saudi Cup, she’s been better than all the runners in her own division. She’s consistently excellent, has a lot of success at this distance, and has great connections with Steve Asmussen and Ricardo Santana. She often does just enough to win, especially at this level. Vexatious’ last race was good enough to put her in the conversation here, while Point of Honor is an extremely consistent mare with two very good starts at this distance.
Winner: 3- Midnight Bisou
Other Predictions: The 4, Vexatious and the 6, Point of Honor, should also turn in competitive performances.
Lucas
3- Midnight Bisou
- all around beast
4- Vexatious
- very good horse, best potential to win beyond the 3
- inconsistent
6- Point of Honor
- very good horse, 2nd best horse in race
- Very consistent
Winner: 3- Midnight Bisou
Bet: An exacta bet with the 4, Vexatious
Patrick
Midnight Bisou is a nightmare for any female horse in the country, and a vast majority of the boys too. I don’t see her losing this one on the way to November. Vexatious and Point of Honor are both very professional runners that should give reputable performances behind her. Motion Emotion isn’t a complete joke, and might sneak into the top three at a price.
Winner: 3- Midnight Bisou
Recap
Niko: Midnight Bisou
Lucas: Midnight Bisou
Patrick: Midnight Bisou
Race 9
Whitney Stakes (G1) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
Niko
This race will be controlled on the front end, which will probably benefit the favorite. Tom’s d’Etat has been impossible lately, and while Improbable nearly beat him two starts back, that wasn’t him at his best. His best came in his last start when he crushed the G2 Stephen Foster, defeating By My Standards by four lengths. He won’t be alone up front though. Mr. Buff is a NY-bred that’s never really succeeded in graded stakes, but he’s dangerous when he gets the lead. He’ll get it here ahead of some stalking types, and he could run better here. Code of Honor is an excellent horse, but his late running style will be hindered by a pace that holds up on the front end. He’ll likely close well but come up short, as he did last time in the G1 Metropolitan Handicap.
Winner: 5- Tom’s d’Etat
Other Predictions: The 4, Mr. Buff, will hold well for second, and the 3, Code of Honor, will close fast but will have to settle for third.
Lucas
1- By My Standards
- very good horse
- unfamiliar jockey/trainer combo
- best bet is near the front end, but has run well from behind
2- Improbable
- excellent horse
- may be overbet because of connections to Bob Baffert and Irad Ortiz
- must be near the front
3- Code of Honor
- fantastic horse
- comes from behind, best bet at morning line odds
4- Mr. Buff
- very good horse, but early speed only
5- Tom’s d’Etat
- best horse, can win any way
- worst odds as best horse in field
Winner: 3- Code of Honor
Other Predictions: The 5, Tom’s d’Etat, will run to form but is not worth betting to win at a short price.
Patrick
This is the most talented five-horse field I’ve ever had to evaluate, and it’s a task that’s extremely difficult, because they’ll all run well. Tom’s d’Etat is a brilliant horse that’s been perfect recently, and someone will need to have an absolutely perfect day to beat him. I think Code of Honor is up to the task. He ran his heart out in defeat last time out, and I think he’s in much better condition than he’s showing on paper. I think he’s going to show up with the best performance of his career here, and it might just be enough. Improbable and By My Standards are both excellent runners that have proven that they weren’t good enough to defeat the favorite in the past, but they’re too good to lose too often. Meanwhile, Mr. Buff will try to wire them, and honestly, crazier things have happened. This is an amazing race.
Winner: 3- Code of Honor
Other Predictions: The 5, Tom’s d’Etat, will give it everything he has to stay in front.
Recap
Niko: Tom’s d’Etat
Lucas: Code of Honor
Patrick: Code of Honor
Race 10
H. Allen Jerkens Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
Niko
This race will require some tactical speed, and the G1 Woody Stephens is a key race. Last time out, Echo Town was expected to go to the lead but instead tried to stalk. This time around, Santana will probably try to put him closer to the lead, which will help him on the inside and hurt other runners. For instance, No Parole defeated Echo Town last time out, but did so with a clear lead up front in a five-horse field. In an 11-horse field, it’s unlikely he works out the same trip, which makes him a vulnerable favorite. If there is a hot pace up front, then Mischevious Alex will do well, as he’ll likely try to stalk behind the leaders. He won’t be able to catch Echo Town though.
Winner: 4- Echo Town
Other Predictions: Good performance from the 5, Mischevious Alex
Lucas
4- Echo Town
- very good horse
5- Mischevious Alex
- very good horse
- undervalued
6- No Parole
- best potential
- may be overvalued
7- Shoplifted
- ran well at seven furlongs for first time in last start
- excellent jockey/trainer combo with Asmussen and Gaffalione
- exacta potential, undervalued
Winner: 5- Mischevious Alex
Patrick
I think that Mischevious Alex’s first start off the layoff was good in the face of some adversity, and in his second start, he’ll get a better setup and should improve. Echo Town will duel if Ricardo Santana is trying to win with him, and I think he’ll have an advantage down on the rail. Three Technique is coming off a layoff and shortening to a sprint distance, and I think Jeremiah Englehart has a plan with a runner that may be a tad undervalued. Eight Rings is a weird runner that’s seen better days, but Bob Baffert doesn’t mess around when he brings horses to Saratoga. I think he’s sitting on a big race.
Winner: 5- Mischevious Alex
Other Predictions: Return to the front for the 4, Echo Town, and strong performances from the 8, Three Technique, and the 2, Eight Rings
Recap
Niko: Echo Town
Lucas: Mischevious Alex
Patrick: Mischevious Alex
Race 11
Bowling Green Stakes (G2) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ⅜ Miles on the Inner Turf
Niko
Sadler’s Joy is the best horse in this field and should be able to catch Cross Border in the stretch. In a stampede in the end, Dot Matrix can do well, but Sadler’s Joy is the quickest late runner based on the Timeform Pace Figures.
Winner: 6- Sadler’s Joy
Other Predictions: Good performances from the 4, Dot Matrix, and the 2, Cross Border, likely in that order
Lucas
1- Marzo
- decent horse
2- Cross Border
- very good horse
- early speed
3- Highland Sky
- decent horse
- undervalued, good for exactas
4- Dot Matrix
- great horse, very consistent
- not as much potential as other runners
- Better bet than the 2
5- Channel Maker
- excellent horse
6- Sadler’s Joy
- best horse
7- Pillar Mountain
- decent horse with good connections (Pletcher/Velasquez)
Winner: 6- Sadler’s Joy
Other Predictions: Exacta with the 4, Dot Matrix
Patrick
Cross Border couldn’t hold on in the G1 Manhattan two starts back, but I think he has a better chance at Saratoga, a track on which he’s undefeated. I love Sadler’s Joy, and while I’ve been a fan forever, he’ll win the stampede but may not get around the leader. If we’re picking long shots underneath, then I think Highland Sky is very interesting, as he’s run well with these in the past at lower levels. Channel Maker always tries and could very easily fight for a minor prize.
Winner: 2- Cross Border
Other Predictions: The 6, Sadler’s Joy, will be flying down the center, and the 3, Highland Sky, will outrun his odds.
Recap
Niko: 6- Sadler’s Joy
Lucas: 6- Sadler’s Joy
Patrick: 2– Cross Border