The problem with guest analysis for a race like this year’s Kentucky Derby is that there’s really only one option. Tiz the Law has been unstoppable in 2020, and if I asked 20 experienced handicappers to provide analysis, 15 or more of them would begrudgingly chose the favorite. As a result, I decided to shift tactics.
I’ve found four very talented handicappers that will be breaking the Law, so to speak. All of them are incorporating the superhorse into their betting strategy, but all four will be attempting to beat him in one way or another. If anything, this article should demonstrate that the best handicappers are the ones who try to maximize value, even when there’s a 3-5 shot in play.
Patrick Moquin Sr.
The tides may one day cease as the moon disappears from the sky, but even then, my father will still be betting against the favorite in big races. He delivers again here with a pedigree-driven analysis in the Run for the Roses.
Patrick’s Pick: The 16, Honor A.P., on top of the 17, Tiz the Law
Patrick’s Long Shot: 12- Sole Volante
Honor A.P.’s lack of experience (and the fact that Tiz the Law is a monster) works against him, but anything with AP in the title is bred for distance and two turns. That makes him a good bet, because the speed is there. Tiz the Law, as previously stated, is a monster, but Manny Franco in the 15-post could lead to his downfall. Long shot possibility Sole Volante is another one bred to run forever.
Joe Burns
Joe and I have a very unique friendship as handicappers. He understands everything that I’m talking about at the track, whereas I comprehend roughly 75% of any opinion he expresses. For readers seeking an ultra-informed opinion, they needn’t look any further.
Joe’s Analysis:
Prior to Monday, I was going to enthusiastically bet Art Collector. A minor workout injury saw to ending that ambition; this sport can be humbling to an endless degree. Even before the major defection, this field was comprised of very few haves and many have-nots. Thousand Words, Honor AP, and Tiz the Law are the obvious stand outs in this year’s renewal of the Derby.
Tiz the Law is a deserving heavy favorite. Turn back the calendar to around the early part of April for the original lead up to this race, and Tiz The Law is the favorite with the California crew of Baffert’s bombers and Honor AP nipping at his heels. Not much has changed in five months. Tiz The Law does very little wrong outside of the muddy track debacle at Churchill in November. His Beyer Speed Figures were workmanlike up until his strong 109 in the Travers and the trips he has worked out other than the 2020 debut have been uneventful. Trying to beat a favorite like this is a fruitless proposition nine out of ten times in my experience.
Honor A.P. is one that can be seen as benefiting from a delayed Derby. His first start of the year in the San Felipe was a solid effort and the following Santa Anita Derby was a forward move. It could be theorized that the trainer of John Sheriffs did not have Honor A.P. fully cranked for the Shared Belief and his trip was less than optimal. He still ran a representative effort despite this. The sire’s side of the pedigree is a strong stamina influence and the running style he employs can benefit with the added distance.
The silver haired elephant in the room is the Baffert trained duo of Thousand Words and Authentic. The trainer is trying for a record tying sixth derby win, and earlier in the year he held a stronger hand with Nadal and Charlatan. Authentic’s Haskell was not a good effort, he held a sizable lead until the final eighth and barely defeated the game NY Traffic. Thousand Words rebounded from negative starts in March and May to win the Shared Belief in a pace controlling effort where he was in front by a length or less the entire way. If Thousand Words shows up with his good effort, he likely will be around for the critical stages of this race.
Joe’s Bet: As far as the betting goes here, I tried beating Tiz The Law a month ago and going to keep this trend up. However in the multi race gimmicks; I’m using Tiz The Law, Honor AP, and Thousand Words. In singular race wagering, an across the board bet on Honor AP is the initial offering with additional units to win and place, the place and show pools pay well in this race. Exotics go like this: a straight exacta of 17 over 2, 8, 10; Max Player has been a factor in his last two and can close well in a race that turns into a stagger in the final stages, while South Bend closed strongly two back. An exacta key box of 16 with 2, 8, 10, 17; a heavy fade on the Tiz the Law exacta in that wager seeing how the payouts will be the lowest in the field. Last of the plays in this race is a triple key of 16, 17 with 2, 8, 10, 16, 17 with 2, 8, 10, 16, 17.
Lucas Ludgate
While the rest of my friends are fatigued with my talk of horse racing, and have been for several years now, Lucas is only becoming more enthusiastic. One of my most frequent guests had to come back for the Derby, and his trademark breakneck analysis can be found below.
Lucas’ Bet: Three-Horse Exacta Box with the 10, Thousand Words, the 16, Honor A.P., and the 17, Tiz the Law
2- Max Player
- 99 best
- 3rd to Tiz the Law 2x
6- King Gullermo (SCRATCHED)
- 99 best
- Somewhat reliant on early speed
10- Thousand Words
- early speed
- good, more potential
15- Ny Traffic
- solid horse
- battles up front
- potential exacta
16- Honor A.P.
- very strong horse
- back to back 102 speed figures
17- Tiz the Law
- best horse
18- Authentic
- very good horse
- all the way outside
Emma Moquin
Of 25 guests featured on various Travers Stakes articles, only one guest handicapper correctly predicted the straight exacta of Tiz the Law and Caracaro. Emma’s method of exhaustive note taking paid off that day, and for Derby Day, she didn’t cut corners. Her full, horse-by-horse analysis can be found below.
Emma’s Pick: 18- Authentic
2- Max Player
- I like Asmussen, but not Santana
- They have a good jockey trainer percentage
- Excellent speed figures that have been increasing with each race
- Has raced this distance before
- Has lost to Tiz the Law twice in his last two races
- Ok workouts
- Santana has not ridden this horse before
- An excellent horse, but I do not believe he can beat Tiz the Law as he hasn’t yet
3- Enforceable
- I don’t know the jockey or the trainer
- Their percentage isn’t great
- Ok workouts
- Has been beaten by Tiz the Law and Finnick the Fierce (This was the race where Tiz the Law had a bad trip)
- Good speed figures that are increasing with each race
4- Storm the Court
- No jockey trainer percentage, which I don’t love
- Has lost to South Bend, King Guillermo, Finnick the Fierce, Authentic, Honor A.P. in the past
- Great workouts
- Ok speed figures
5- Major Fed
- Not good speed figures
- A great jockey trainer percentage
- Has beaten Necker Island and Ny Traffic, but has also lost to Ny Traffic
- Ok workouts
7- Money Moves
- I’m a big fan of this jockey and trainer together
- This horse is a little inexperienced having never raced in a stakes race
- Not great workouts
- Excellent speed figures
- This horse has potential, but I believe it needs a couple more stakes races to be a contender
8- South Bend
- A great jockey trainer percentage
- I like Mott more than Gaffalione
- This horse has lost to Tiz the Law, Max Player, Sole Volante, Finnick the Fierce
- Has beaten Storm the Court
- Good speed figures that are improving with each race
- Not great workouts
9- Mr. Big News
- A GREAT JOCKEY TRAINER PERCENTAGE
- Has lost to Major Fed and Ny Traffic
- Not great speed figures
- Not great workouts
10- Thousand Words
- I don’t like Geroux or Baffert
- This horse has beaten Honor AP
- Has Lost to Mr. Big News, Authentic, Honor Ap and Storm the Court
- EXCELLENT SPEED FIGURES
- Lead Horse
11- Necker Island
- Have no idea who this jockey and trainer are and they have a 0 jockey trainer percentage, so I’m right
- Has Lost to Attachment Rate three times, Ny Traffic, Finnick the Fierce, and Major Fed
- Ok speed figures
- Good Workouts
12- Sole Volante
- Great jockey trainer percentage
- Pretty good overall speed figures
- Has lost to Tiz the Law and Max Player
- Ok workouts
13- Attachment Rate
- Good jockey trainer percentage
- Bad workouts
- Has beat Necker Island, but has lost to Ny Traffic
- Great speed figures that improve with every race
14- Winning Impression
- I don’t like this jockey trainer combo
- Bad speed figures
- Good workouts
- Has lost to Attachment Rate, Necker Island (twice), and Major Fed
- Has beat Finnick the Fierce
15- Ny Traffic
- EXCELLENT SPEED FIGURES increases with each race
- Good jockey trainer percentage
- Has lost to Authentic and Major Fed
- Great workouts
- Lead horse
16- Honor A.P.
- Great jockey trainer percentage
- Excellent speed figures
- Mike Smith is great
- Ok workouts
- Has lost to Thousand Words and Authentic
- Has beaten Authentic and Storm the Court
17- Tiz the Law
- Excellent jockey and trainer
- The best speed figures in the race
- Has beaten Max Player
- Has lost to Finnick the Fierce
- Great workouts
- The obvious horse to beat
18- Authentic
- My fav jockey trainer combo in the race
- Has beaten Ny Traffic, Honor AP, and Storm the Court
- Has lost to Honor AP
- Excellent speed figures
- Excellent workouts
W: Authentic
P: Tiz the Law
S: Honor AP