Handicapping Roundtable: BC Turf

The Breeders’ Cup Turf is arguably one of the toughest races on the card, but Paul Moquin and Patrick Moquin Sr. are up to the challenge. Between my father and uncle, bettors can feel secure that they are getting experienced second opinions for a race that few bettors could ever hope to figure out alone.

Race 11

Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ½ Miles on the Turf

Paulie’s Corner

I’m not picking any Euros 💶 this race. The grass will be too hard for them and just right for Rockemperor who is ready to go, along with Gufo, who’s just as ready. Japan will be there at the end with one of my faves Channel Maker. My original pick scratched so he could get in.

Patrick Moquin Sr.

1- Rockemperor

Talented but inconsistent runner for Chad Brown. Had an impressive win over Gufo at this distance in the Joe Hirsch at 15-1 last out. I’m betting against him being able to produce a repeat performance. Contender

2- United (SCRATCHED)

Consistent Grade 2 local runner who has earned an impressive $1.8 million in 22 races. Unfortunately for him, he is facing a lot of Grade 1 talent today and is in over his head. Apparently his usual rider Flavien Prat agrees, opting to ride Domestic Spending instead. Long shot.

3- Domestic Spending (SCRATCHED)

Proven Grade 1 winner should get the perfect setup in here for jockey Flavien Prat and trainer Chad Brown. His 3-month layoff should not be a problem considering he has fired off a freshening before. I think the problem is the 1 1/2 mile distance and the level of competition coming in from Europe. He’s probably Brown’s best chance for the win. Contender

4- Astronaut 

Closed at 24-1 to take a Grade 2 in August over today’s surface at Del Mar but has not been seen since. It would take a quantum leap forward in form and talent for him to even compete against these runners. Long shot.

5- Tribhuvan

Has shown legitimate Grade 1 level front end speed, which is always dangerous on the turf. His style requires him to get the lead to himself in order to succeed and I don’t think that will happen with other talented front end runners in this field. He was challenged for the lead and rundown in the stretch in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer to finish a well beaten 5th. I anticipate a similar performance. Contender light.

6- Acclimate 

Has tier 2 front end speed and little to no chance of holding off the talented field chasing him down. Long shot.

7- Walton Street 

This Godolphin owned runner shipped over from Europe to take a Grade 1 in Canada at 1 1/2 miles in preparation for this. I’m not sure about the quality of that field that day but he did it with an impressive 110 beyer figure for trainer Charles Appleby who has been shipping in live horses all year. The 2 things that give pause are his winning rider from that race has opted to ride Broome for Aiden O’Brien and Appleby and Godolphin have entered another runner in the field. I’m betting that European riders don’t say no to Aiden O’Brien and Godolphin has enough money to enter as many horses as they want. The pick.

8- Broome 

Another European invader. He got walloped last time out in a French Grade 1 at this distance. You have to respect the connections of O’Brien and Dettori, a very dangerous combination. The travel for a horse that tired at this distance has me looking for others. Still, a contender based on the connections.

9- Sisfahan 

Shipping in from Germany. A wise man once advised me German beer is a better bet than German racing. I try to avoid betting on horses traveling from overseas whose trainers lack a track record of success doing it. Outside chance.

10- Yibir 

Another Godolphin/Appleby shipper. He beat a lesser field at Belmont in a prep for this. Having no Grade 1 races on his resume indicates a giant step up in class needs to be overcome. I’m betting that it’s too big a step. Contender.

11- Gufo 

This classy closer dances every dance. He has never run out of the money while consistently facing the best turf horses in the country. Has wins at the distance at this level. Contender.

12- Teona 

Ships over from France with a Grade 1 victory under her belt. This lightly raced 3 year old filly cedes a huge experience edge to this field and her trainer is 0 for 2 shipping to America this year. Outsider.

13- Tarnawa 

Last year’s Turf Classic winner returns for the same connections over a tougher path. She is coming off consecutive 2nd place finishes, although one of them was to St. Mark’s Basilica, arguably one of the best horses in the world. I am betting against a repeat performance, I think she will be asked to pass better horses in the stretch this year after competing in a tougher campaign leading up to the race. Contender.

14- Japan 

Another O’Brien has run 2 races in America in preparation for this race. A competitive effort finishing a close 2nd to Gufo at Saratoga followed by a clunker in losing to a couple of these at Belmont. I believe he has proven to be a notch below the best here. Outsider.

Also Eligible

15- Bolshoi Ballet 

Looked great shipping over from Ireland in the Belmont Derby. Albeit with a slow time figure which proved a precursor to the 2 mediocre performances that followed. Would have to improve a lot to compete if he gets in the race. Long Shot.

Patrick Sr.’s Picks:

1. Walton Street
2. Gufo
3. Tarnawa

Long Shot: Rockemperor