My two prize pupils team up here for some solid analysis of the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. I’ve been a fan of Emma for as long as I’ve known her, and ever since Niko drunkenly fell out of that bush and asked me for change all those years ago, he’s been a steadfast friend as well.
Race 7
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 ⅜ Miles on the Turf
1- Going to Vegas
Niko: I don’t hate Going to Vegas because of the jockey trainer combo. My concern with this horse is that’s she’s only raced at this distance once. It was a year ago, but it was one of her slower races. Now, she’s gotten better since that point, but can she race this well at that distance?
Emma: I don’t know Rispoli as a jockey, but he seems to be able to ride this horse successfully. He has impressive speed figures and seems to be able to win at this distance on this turf. He has previously beaten Dogtag (11) twice in her past two races, which I find encouraging. Also her last race was at Saratoga and a win at Saratoga is always impressive. I am personally always wary of speed horses, but I like this horse, but am not sure she is quite good enough to pull off a win in this race.
2- Pocket Square (GB)
Niko: I trust Chad Brown and I trust Irad Ortiz and I love them together. But I don’t trust this horse.
Emma: Irad and Brown together is a killer jockey trainer combo. This horse has pretty good speed figures, I personally wish they were a little higher, but they aren’t bad by any means. She is coming off a two race hot streak, once winning at Saratoga. I like the fact that despite being a British horse, she has raced in the U.S. with success. It shows that she is comfortable running here and isn’t new to American racing. I like this horse, but I don’t know if she is my top pick to win this race simply because she’s got some tough competition.
3- Acanella (GB)
Niko: This horse is wildly inconsistent and seems to prefer shorter distances. I don’t know what they’re trying to do here.
Emma: Here we have another British horse, but this time I am unfamiliar with the jockey and trainer, but the trainer’s stats don’t exactly fill me with reassurance. This horse had a tough last race, coming in 7th and I wish I could say this was a fluke, but this horse seems to be very inconsistent in her success. I don’t think I trust this horse to pull of a win in today’s race.
4- Rougir (Fr)
Niko: If she gets the right trip, she’s going to be annoying in the pack and screw something up. But if she doesn’t, she’s not a threat at all.
Emma: This horse seems to attract bad turf conditions. In her past four races, when the track conditions have been bad, she has finished in the top four, which tells me that she won’t be able transition to the hard turf. The transition to the US is already challenging enough and I just don’t know how well she is going to be able to adjust. Her last win is very impressive, but once again the turf condition was heavy and I just don’t know if her abilities will be able to transfer over here today. I’m going to come in with hot take and say that this horse is over bet.
5- Queen Supreme (Ire)
Niko: Another horse that can’t run this far. I have little to work with for this horse beyond the lack of experience at the distance and her results. Neither gives me reason to support her.
Emma: I’ll be honest, I don’t like this horse at all. Her past two races were rough, her trainer’s stats quite frankly suck, and his Timeform rating in her last race is bad enough for me to bring it up. She also has a new jockey on her, which could be seen as a good or bad thing depending on how you look at it, but unfortunately for this horse I am a pessimist. I usually like to a jockey have ridden the horse in a race before hand to see if he knows how to lead her to success and I can’t do that here. If this horse wins, I will be shocked.
6- Love (Ire)
Niko: This is a horse that gets better when she runs longer distances. There’s no reason why she shouldn’t finish in the top three. The only concern is that the G1 King George featured a small field that gave her a lot of room to work out a trip. But she’s a good horse, so I don’t see trouble being a problem here.
Emma: This trainer’s stats are actually quite impressive and despite this horse not having a win in a bit, she has remained in the top three consistently with Moore as her jockey, which I love to see. There is nothing I love more than consistency. She is racing great and in Stakes races too. She has also beaten Audarya in the past showing that she is familiar with the level of competition she will be facing. Overall I think this horse is just really impressive and solid and I am really looking forward to seeing how she performs today.
7- War Like Goddess
Niko: A rightful favorite in my opinion. She’s won four in a row and is a fast horse over long distances.
Emma: This horse has my favorite name in the race, which isn’t important, but I thought I would just let everyone know that. I feel like sometimes I am hard on Leparoux and I don’t think that I have any really reason to not like him, but I just don’t find him all that impressive, but I think that’s just a me thing. I do however really like Mott and he has good trainer stats to back this up. This horse is extremely impressive. She hit triple digit speed figures in her last race at Saratoga where she also beat My Sister Nat. This horse seems to get better each race and not only finishes in the top three consistently, but wins consistently. She has good workouts and I love her running style. I love this horse.
8- Loves Only You (Jpn)
Niko: She should be in the top three, but I don’t think she’s better than War Like Goddess or Love so far. She’s fast enough, but she hasn’t won like they have. They might just be because of the competition, but it’s concerning that she’s only had two wins recently.
Emma: This horse seems pretty good. She has done great in her past four races and Kawada has won on her before, which is encouraging. I am unfamiliar with the jockey trainer because of course I am. This horse is from Japan. Give me a break, but from what I can tell they seem like a good team. This horse definitely has a shot.
9- My Sister Nat (Fr)
Niko: At 15-1, I don’t hate throwing her in to a trifecta with two of the top three. She’s older and comfortable with the distance, so I think she can stay up there. Chad Brown on the turf!
Emma: This is another great jockey trainer combo with the other Ortiz brother and Brown. This horse has great speed figures, but even with these great speed figures, this horse has lost to War Like Goddess twice, which is sad for her. I think this is a solid, solid horse that is consistent as of late, but I just don’t think she can win this race. I do, however, think she is interesting for exactas and trifectas if that is something you are thinking about doing.
10- Ocean Road (Ire)
Niko: This horse does not belong.
Emma: I do not like this horse. His Timeform Rating in all of her races except her last race are so bad I am being forced to mention them again and even in her last race where she had a not totally embarrassing Timeform Rating she still came in third. This is harsh, but sometimes you just have to tell it like it is.
11- Dogtag
Niko: If you shorten the race up a little bit, maybe. But I don’t think she has the engine to go this far.
Emma: This horse is fine, but I really doubt she can win this race. She has lost to going to Going to Vegas in her past two races and I don’t even think Going to Vegas will win the race, so what chance does this horse have? Despite having pretty good speed figures, this horse just can’t pull off a win and I don’t think that today will be any different.
12- Audarya (Fr)
Niko: She’s had respectable losses. This jockey is not normally the one who rides her, and Buick has only ridden her twice. One was one of her better races and the other was one of her worst. Either way, I say there are four better horses regardless.
Emma: I don’t love this horse. She seems to be okay, but she has previously lost to two of the horses in this race (Rougir and Love), which is discouraging to me. Her jockey has ridden her before but has not won on her. However, her trainer has insane stats. I think this horse is good, but I like some of the other horses better than her.
Niko’s Pick: 6- Love
Love’s performance racing against Adayar and Misriff really sold me. Most of these horses aren’t going to be a problem for her. The only contender she’ll have to chase with are War Like Goddess, and she’s faster. In addition to a win bet, I will also be betting a trifecta featuring Love, War Like Goddess, and My Sister Nat.
Emma’s Pick: 7- War Like Goddess
- Love second, My Sister Nat third.
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