Handicapping Roundtable: BC Filly and Mare Sprint

From my mother, Joan Moquin: It’s that time of year again when the air turns crisp, Belmont weather requires a jacket and hot toddy to endure the day’s card and all eyes turn to sunny California for the Breeder’s Cup.

From my sister, Emma Moquin: Very curious. I put Bella Sofia on top for that race, which is a hot take, but I couldn’t pick Gamine for the 1000th time in my life.

Race 4

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt

1- Proud Emma

Emma: I am a big fan of the name of this horse, but I am afraid that’s where my fondness ends. I don’t love the jockey trainer combo of Prat and Miller and this horse’s speed figures don’t exactly make me feel confident that this horse has a chance of winning this race. His speed figures the past two races were 81 and 88, which compared to the field isn’t ideal. Her workouts are not anything to brag about. I will also note that she has previously lost to Ce Ce and Edgeway in her past two races and those two horses aren’t even the hardest competition in the race. From a personal standpoint I would be a moron to not put at least $2 on her, but I don’t recommend following my lead.

Joan: The name alone holds a special place in my heart! This Kentucky-bred, 5-year-old mare has an extensive resume spanning from New York to California, She has become a familiar site among the southern California racing circuit, and will undoubtedly have a hometown advantage. In addition, Flaven Prat currently tops the 2021 jockey leaderboard earnings at Del Mar.

2- Estilo Talentoso (SCRATCHED)

3- Edgeway

Emma: I like Rosario on this horse very much. He seems like he has a good handle on how this horse likes to run and is good at it. However, I have a similar issue to the one I had with Estilo Talentoso. This horse had a pretty good speed figure in her last race (90) where she beat Proud Emma, but in the race before that she had a 74 speed figure losing to Gamine. This shows me that she might not be able to be some of the harder competition in the race. I also find it concerning that she, much like Gamine and Bella Sofia, is a lead horse. Bella Sofia and Gamine are excellent lead horses with much larger speed figures and I just think that this horse will try to match pace and fail miserably. I really don’t see this horse winning.

Joan: This Kentucky-bred filly has doubled her earnings in the past year. She also has earned an impressive first place in three of four starts on the dirt. Unfortunately, Joel Rosario’s 2021 record at Del Mar is not quite as impressive.

4- Ce Ce

Emma: I like this jockey-trainer combo a lot and Espinoza is obviously very comfortable in leading this horse to the winner circle. She has great speed figures and okay workouts. She has previously beaten Estilo Talentoso but has lost to Gamine (are we sensing a pattern?). She did come in third in the race where she lost to Gamine, which is impressive, but it makes me doubt whether or not she can beat Gamine. I do like her though if there is anybody out there thinking of an extacta or trifecta.

Joan: This Kentucky-bred filly is a beauty with delicate features and an odd connection to Harry Houdini. Her smaller stature may be an asset in this sprint race. However, as interesting as the tale of her name is, she may need to conjure up some magic to compete with the likes of Gamine and Bella Sofia. Her 2021 earnings were down by half as compared to the previous year. Not sure the horse and jockey will fare well.

5- Gamine

Emma: Here I am again reviewing Gamine’s stats for what feels like the millionth time in my life. She is the obvious favorite with her consistently excellent speed figures, five race winning streak (beating many horses in the field today), great workouts, and excellent jockey trainer (even though I do not support Bob Baffert and believe that he shouldn’t be allowed to enter any horses in any race). This horse, as always, is the horse to beat and as a fan of an underdog, I would love to see a surprise here today.

Joan: Gamine is a big, beautiful, beast-of-a-filly that has proven her dominance time and time again. She is reminiscent of Ruffian, Rachel Alexander and, dare I make the comparison, the great Zenyatta. This is the horse to beat! The only negative, which is one of a personal nature, is her affiliation with Bob Baffert.

6- Bella Sofia

Emma: Here is the horse that I believe has the best chance of beating Gamine here today. Her speed figures of 102 and 101 in her last two races speak for themselves. I think Rodriguez and Saez make for a great team for this horse, and they can obviously get the best out of her. Since Gamine and Bella Sofia have very similar running styles it will be very interesting to see who beats who, but I really do think Bella Sofia has a great chance. I’m always one to go against the favorite, so Bella Sofia is my choice for today.

Emma: Bella Sofia has made quite a name for herself in the 2021 New York racing circuit. She has won four out of five starts and is trained by Rudy Rodriguez. She may be the only real competition for Gamine if she can hold on to the lead.

Emma’s Pick: 2- Bella Sofia

Good luck and happy betting everybody!

My picks:

1. Bella Sofia
2. Gamine
3. Ce Ce

Joan’s Pick: 5- Gamine

Bella Sofia in second, Proud Emma in third.