Handicapping Roundtable: BC Distaff

The Charles and Diana of our generation have agreed to grace Paddy’s Picks with analysis for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. After nearly two years, Kristina has received a promotion from The Casual Bet to the Handicapping Roundtable, and she took full advantage by sending a single paragraph this morning. Niko’s dead end position within this publication remains unchanged, 

Race 10

Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt

Kristina’s Korner for Kool Kids

11- Dunbar Road

I know Letruska is the obvious favorite here, and it’s the right choice, but I wouldn’t put all my money on her. I think she’ll be challenged by the 11, Dunbar Road, the 3, Malathaat, and the 8, Shedaresthedevil. I don’t think Letruska is safe of getting run down later in the race by any of these horses here, and if you’re looking for an underdog pick, I think you go with Dunbar Road. The field is tough, sure, but I think the 15-1 odds this morning are fair (and worth your money). Dunbar Road can keep up as we’ve seen in recent starts, and I don’t think today will be any different. 11 Dunbar Road, Del Mar, California. Lol.

Niko Konstantellis

1- Private Mission

Niko: She’s getting better, but I don’t like Bob Baffert. She ran in the G2 Zenyatta Stakes and won. That’s a plus. Probably just not good enough though.

2- Royal Flag

Niko: How does she have the same odds as Private Mission? Royal Flag is better. She definitely hangs back but she’s often fast enough to close. Maybe not the winner, but definitely in the mix.

3- Malathaat

Niko: Love to see John Velasquez here. She really loves to win beyond a weird loss at Saratoga over the summer. Definitely in the mix.

4- Blue Stripe (Arg)

Niko: It’s hard to make a judgement with limited information about Argentinian horse racing.

5- Clairiere

Niko: My concern is if she’ll be able to chase down the pack going to the front early. She can get there under the right circumstances, but the competition is quick.

6- Letruska

Niko: She has lost before to runners in this race, but it’s very tough to say that it’s going to happen again.

7- Horologist

Niko: If she can somehow get back to what she was running last year, she has a shot. What happened? I don’t see it for this one.

8- Shedaresthedevil

Niko: A duel between this one and Letruska could be really cool. But she’ll have to be perfect and Letruska will have to be off. She beat Letruska once, but that was back in March and Letruska is better now. I’m going to say that she’s up there.

9- As Time Goes By

Niko: I don’t like Bob Baffert, and I don’t like this horse either. She’s been beaten by multiple runners in this race recently. Luis Saez has also never ridden her. I don’t like it.

10- Marche Lorraine (Jpn)

Niko: I can’t even tell you anything about this horse. She’ll be in the middle of the pack for the race and she just might finish there.

11- Dunbar Road

Niko: Getting better, and comfortable with Prat aboard. I guess I expected more, but looking at the rest of the field, I’m no longer sure that she has a shot.

Niko’s Pick: 6- Letruska

I think Letruska and Shedaresthedevil duel for the entire race, and I think Letruska gets her revenge. I think it will be tight, however. It’s the easy pick, but I think it’s what’s going to happen.