For those of you who don’t know me too well, you should know that I get distracted very easily. It’s hard for me to directly progress from one thought to another, and even as I write this paragraph, I’m tempted to stray. This cognitive wanderlust applies to horse racing as well, and I might have finally created an article that satisfies my curiosity.
Whenever I peruse entries for a certain day of racing across the country, I invariably find myself drawn to races at different tracks. Weekend cards are especially frustrating for me, as I can’t possibly analyze every event that entices me. But what if I tried? What if I took note of every race I liked and created a sort of handicapping medley? What if that was what I named the article? Woah!
In what I hope will become a series, I’ve picked seven races taking place on Saturday, May 27, that I believe are enjoyable to analyze. Readers should understand that these races cater to my personal tastes as a racing fan and handicapper. For instance, races on the turf, particularly sprints, will be common. All races will be presented in classic DRF style, with a top four accompanying a brief paragraph of analysis.
I hope my tastes for racing overlap with those of my readers, but if nothing else, this article should hopefully give you all an idea of key races occurring on any given race day. After all, not everyone is blessed (or cursed) with my refusal to settle on any given task for more than five minutes at a time. Allow me to be your guide as we first travel across the Atlantic for a premier event on the Emerald Isle.
Curragh, Race 5
Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 Mile on the Turf
Post Time: 10:40 a.m. ET
11- Royal Scotsman (IRE)
9- Proud and Regal (IRE)
8- Paddington (GB)
4- Cairo (IRE)
Royal Scotsman (IRE) was a deserving favorite in the G1 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket last time out but fell victim to what seemed to be a bizarre track condition. Running in the rain, every horse on the outside in that race seemed stuck in place while inside runners seemed to progress easily. Despite the awful ride from former jockey Jim Crowley, he still managed to make up ground to finish third. He seems like a sure thing with a cleaner ride from Jamie Spencer this time around. Proud and Regal (IRE) finished his two-year-old campaign last year with a G1 stakes victory in France. His three-year-old campaign began on a disappointing note, however, as he made a bold move into the stretch before flattening out. I’m willing to bet that 1 ¼ miles was too long for him, and cutting back to a mile in his second start off the layoff may have been under consideration all along. Paddington (GB) is a logical contender in this field after three straight victories, including a nice listed stakes win at Curragh last time out. The waters get deeper here but he could still deliver a solid effort. Cairo (IRE) has not a had a chance on turf since October, when he won the G3 Killavullan at Leopardstown. The UAE Derby trip was a serious misstep but he deserves a second chance getting back on his natural surface.
Churchill Downs, Race 5
$100,000 Optional Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Four Races, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Turf
Post Time: 2:45 p.m. ET
2- Love and Money
5- Happy Soul
4- Bout Time
6- Nota Bene
Love and Money won a nice optional claimer at Gulfstream back in March, dueling on the outside and holding off late challengers with an 84 BSF. She’ll likely get the rail in this one and has fired fresh off a layoff before. Happy Soul is a qualified favorite dropping in class after a solid fourth in the Giant’s Causeway behind all-star sprinter Twilight Gleaming (IRE). She should fire again in her second start off the layoff, but she hasn’t won since Feb. 2022 either and might be worth taking a small chance against. Bout Time looked like a rising star taking the Goldwood at Monmouth last June, but she took a significant step back in the G3 Caress next time out and hasn’t been right since. Trainer Cherie Devaux is excellent at preparing horses off layoffs, however, and this mare deserves a chance to show that she’s still got it. Nota Bene earned a solid victory in conditional competition last time out to capitalize on some improved form recently. She may be in over her head against this field but could still finish well.
Belmont, Race 5
$90,000 Maiden Special Weight for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
Post Time: 3:03 p.m. ET
2- Double Dream
6- Utilization Rate (Fr)
3- Zappera
4- Doral
Double Dream is the firster of the Chad Brown pair, but I’m getting the sense that he’s going to fire on debut. Flavien Prat works extremely well with Brown, which could be a sign that this filly is a favorable unknown in this field. If she can’t get the job done, then stablemate Utilization Rate (Fr) certainly can. Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz are always going to take money, even when the horse seems evenly matched to several other runners. The top pair in New York has earned that right and this filly seems capable. Of the Todd Pletcher pair, I think Zappera has a stronger case for improvement coming off a solid April debut at Aqueduct. Adding distance seems to be the right decision and the wider turns at Belmont could benefit the closer. Doral rounds out this quartet as she tries to regain her form from earlier this year. She failed to cash in on back-to-back 75 BSFs at Gulfstream and didn’t show up in her third start at Keeneland. Running back to her previous races put her squarely in the mix here.
Churchill Downs, Race 10
Keertana Stakes (Ungraded) for Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward, 1 ½ Miles on the Turf
Post Time: 5:26 p.m. ET
5- Miss Yearwood
10- Sparkle Blue
7- Lovely Princess
4- Sinfiltre
Tricky race here. I don’t know if Miss Yearwood is the one, but I loved that win at Keeneland last time out. With a romping victory at this distance and very solid form from three to four, I feel like I can at least expect her to run her race. Sparkle Blue makes a lot of sense at a short price, as trainer Graham Motion seems to be preparing her for longer distances. She ran a very encouraging third in the G1 American Oaks at 1 ¼ miles in December, and Motion gave her a prep off the layoff in the G3 Modesty earlier this month. The distance is a question but she enters the test under optimal conditions. Lovely Princess is less of a sure thing at this distance but showed more in an allowance victory at Keeneland last time out. On form alone, few in this field top her, and Ken McPeek can usually be trusted to find the right distance for his horses. Sinfiltre figures as an obvious choice with Todd Pletcher and Luis Saez by her side, but that marathon victory at Keeneland is highly suspect, as she won wire-to-wire on a speed-favoring track with a weak 78 BSF.
Churchill Downs, Race 11
$120,000 Maiden Special Weight for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
Post Time: 5:58 p.m. ET
11- Paddington
1- Mullikin
10- De la Calles
3- Space
There’s an obvious one here, but he’s worth taking a small chance against. Let’s give Paddington, second of his name in this article by chance, a shot in his debut for Brad Cox. The star Kentucky trainer seldom sends out plodders and he recruits frequent collaborator Florent Geroux to ride. He’s a clear, if unsure, contender. Mullikin will be very tough to beat. The 93 BSF he earned at Keeneland last time out is by far the highest in this field and he would probably have to regress to lose this time around. He’s worth going against simply because he has now come up short twice despite performing well on both occasions at short prices. De la Calles is an interesting option making his second start for Rusty Arnold. The trainer is very good with horses making their second start and this colt can easily improve on the 65 BSF he earned last time out with a better start out of the gate. Brian Hernandez Jr. is a key jockey upgrade as well. Space has some appeal due to his limited experience at two, which could prepare him well as he begins his three-year-old campaign. Bill Mott doesn’t necessarily push his runners in the morning, so some zippy recent works for this colt could be an encouraging sign.
Santa Anita, Race 7
Daytona Stakes (G3) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Downhill Turf
Post Time: 7:14 p.m. ET
5- Whatmakessammyrun
7- Burnin Turf
3- Fast Buck
1- Indian Peak
Whatmakessammyrun is unquestionably the pick here. The Paddy’s Pick. The five-year-old gelding enters this race in exceptional form and has already proven successful over the Santa Anita turf. He’s struggled to string wins together historically but that’s not a very fair criticism after his 96 BSF victory last time out. Burnin Turf deserves respect as the show finisher in last year’s Daytona, but that performance came as he was regressing in form. He has not yet fully bounced back to the races he ran in early 2022 but is finally getting the chance to run back-to-back races without a layoff again. Fast Buck hasn’t yet faced a field of this caliber but he has done very well at lower levels and earned a 91 BSF in victory last time out. Trainer Cesar DeAlba has been hot lately and should prepare this gelding well. Indian Peak belongs in this field after spending several years in stakes competition. He hasn’t won since Oct. 2021, however, and lost convincingly to Whatmakessammyrun convincingly last time out.
Santa Anita, Race 8
Triple Bend Stakes (G2) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
Post Time: 7:44 p.m. ET
4- Forbidden Kingdom
6- Spirit of Makena
7- C Z Rocket
1- Midnight Mammoth
Forbidden Kingdom is better than his performance in the G3 San Carlos, which he lost by 1 ½ lengths with a 95 BSF. Richard Mandella seems to finally be preparing this colt for a career as a sprinter and he should take a big step forward at some point this season. Spirit of Makena defeated Forbidden Kingdom last time out, but despite his inexperience, it seems likelier that the late-blooming five-year-old has hit a ceiling for now. He remains unbeaten in sprints in three tries but may not have the advantage coming off a short layoff. C Z Rocket is by far the most accomplished runner in this field with $2 million in the bank, but without a victory since July 2022, bettors have to begin wondering if his best days are behind him. Midnight Mammoth ran a sharp race to finish third in the G2 Californian last time out but remains untested at sprint distances.