It’s 8:30 in the morning as I put the finishing touches on this piece, and anyone that’s interacted with me over the past few months knows that this is the earliest I’ve been awake since Thanksgiving. Waking up is difficult when there’s nothing going on, but when there’s racing to write about, I’m suddenly the early bird in Oceanside again.
For those of you who have stuck around, welcome back to Paddy’s Picks. I’ve made sporadic returns to this site since last summer, and this is another such return as I prepare to resume my studies at Fordham next week. The Pegasus World Cup isn’t necessarily my favorite racing event of the year, but it’s an excuse to do this, and that’s frankly more than enough to justify its existence.
I have to admit that I might be a little rusty in this analysis, as I’ve only bet on two days since the Breeders’ Cup, and I should also point out that my handicapping record at Gulfstream is actually worse than at Saratoga. That being said, when Aqueduct and Santa Anita are next to useless, the track down at Florida is a fun alternative during my handicapping offseason. If anything, it’s always a humbling experience.
In the end, I don’t need to win a single race today. That would be nice, but publishing work for people to see is much more valuable to me than any money I might receive from the insight I provide. So, for the next two days, I proudly re-introduce Paddy’s Picks, and look forward to showing you a couple of cool things I’ve been working on.
Race 1
$25,000 Optional Claiming for Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 Mile on the Turf
This is the first of many tricky turf races on this card, a staple of Gulfstream that makes payoffs large and handicapping extremely difficult. I narrowed it town to a few runners, but could do very little to split them from there:
5- Orencia
1- Apurate
2- Moral Reasoning
8- Vividly (GB)
Order: 5 1 2 8
Orencia as my top pick was more of a process of elimination, as I have serious issues with the 1, Apurate, and the 2, Moral Reasoning. The latter’s only career win came two back on an uncontested early lead, and without that dream setup, he’s proven to be a bit of a hanger that’s eaten money before. On the other hand, Moral Reasoning just left Chad Brown’s barn, which means that improvement under Brian Lynch is somewhat unlikely. Orencia, on the other hand, enters this race in fairly good condition, and in her turf route debut, she ran very well against weaker competition. The 8, Vividly, sneaks into my top four as a European wild card I would regret tossing.
Race 2
$50,000 Maiden Special Weight for Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt
With dirt maiden races at Gulfstream, less experienced runners are often more attractive to bettors. Horses that spend too much time in these ranks often never leave, so it’s better to look for horses that could improve immediately, as I tried to find here:
3- American Law
11- Dynamic One
6- Taita
2- Another Duke
Order: 3 11 6 2
If American Law and Dynamic One switched post positions, they would also switch places in my order. Dynamic One has shown a level of quality that these other runners simply haven’t, but unfortunately, the far outside post is a killer in races at this distance. Meanwhile, American Law showed some ability in his first start in December, and could easily improve under Danny Gargan, who strikes with 36% of his maidens making their second starts. Taita sneaks into third as an intriguing long shot that might have a little more to say that her maiden claiming races may suggest.
Race 3
$25,000 Optional Claiming for Four-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 1/16 Miles on the Turf
Another impossible race at Gulfstream, as drawing the line between the contenders here would be very difficult without watching the race as it happens. We’ll have to bet beforehand unfortunately, so I’ll try my best with what I have:
9- Homeland
8- Bray
11- Junkanoo
4- Scanno
Order: 9 8 11 4
Rather than try to pick between Bray, Junkanoo and Scanno, I decided to get creative and find a runner to beat the trio. Homeland was obviously prepping for graded stakes competition for Bill Mott early last year before something happened that sidelined him for nearly a year. He returns in a reasonable spot with Junior Alvarado in the reins, and he may have something to say on first asking for a trainer that’s patient, but also tends to have his horses ready if they’re willing. From there, I simply like Bray as a horse more than the other two, which earns him the second spot.
Race 4
Fred W. Hooper Stakes (G3) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 Mile on the Dirt
The importance of this race is entirely dependent on one horse. If Performer does what he’s supposed to do, this will be a leaping point to bigger races in the future. If anyone else wins, it’s unlikely that anyone will really take notice. I decided to go with the money here, despite small hints of value calling out to me along the way:
1- Performer
2- Eye of a Jedi
3- Shivaree
5- Phat Man
Order: 1 2 3 5
His speed figures are a little light and he probably should have won last time out, but Performer is clearly the class of this field with five wins in seven starts. Eye of a Jedi and Phat Man are worthy adversaries, and I’m partial to long shot Shivaree for what I’ve found to be bravery in the past, but I don’t think there’s anything too difficult for the promising Shug McGaughey runner.
Race 5
$62,000 Optional Claiming for Four-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, 1 Mile on the Turf
What’s that? Another 12-horse turf race? It baffles me that people actually make money gambling down here all the time, because any one of these races could be a Pick Five killer. Nevertheless, I proceed undeterred, inspired and driven by my love of making wise cracks to my tens or readers:
1- Bodecream
7- Opry
2- Emaraaty (GB)
8- Winters Back
Order: 1 7 2 8
I’ve found that experience at the condition and recent starts are the two important factors to winning these allowances, and of the contenders, Bodecream fits that mold well. He hasn’t been in the optional claiming game exactly, but he’s been performing well in lower stakes around the country since August, and is clearly in solid condition under Mike Maker. Opry is coming off a layoff of nine-month layoff while Emaraaty has been off for 15 months, and I’d like both of them to have a race before I support them on top. In a different, sense, I think Winters Back is eventually going to hit a wall after accelerating quickly through the allowance ranks at Aqueduct last year.
Race 6
$50,000 Maiden Special Weight for Three-Year-Olds, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
Pick your favorite first time starter and keep rolling. We’ve all been there before:
3- Ghazaaly
10- Stage Raider
9- Full Court Press
12- Traveller
Order: 3 10 9 12
I have no interest in any of the experienced runners here, and of the first time starters going out for top trainers, only one of them has a favorable post position. I have no idea if Ghazaaly can run, but he’ll have a natural advantage over the three firsters far too his outside, and that’s enough for me to roll the dice.
Race 7
Marshua’s River Stakes (G3) for Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward, 1 Mile on the Turf
If Gulfstream continues to field turf races with exactly 12 runners, then unfortunately, I’m eventually going to run out of things to talk about. This one’s just as hard as the rest of them:
4- Vigilantes Way
9- Niko’s Dream
3- Zofelle (Ire)
1- Belle Laura
Order: 4 9 3 1
For a horse to win a graded stakes race like this, I wanted to see some recent success to justify my selection. Vigilantes Way and Niko’s Dream have both been running very well as of late, and while Zofelle is a very attractive option, she’s a bit of an unsure commodity after a bad start all the way back in June.
Race 8
La Prevoyante Stakes (G3) for Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward, 1 ½ on the Turf
Yeah, it’s another 12-horse turf race, but at least the distance is fun. I like an endurance event as a handicapper because it’s interesting to figure out which horses can handle it and which ones are being overbet because of their success going shorter. Plus, it’s fun to watch casual fans get excited when the horses hit the wire for the first time and have to run all the way around again. My top four:
11- Traipsing
1- Always Shopping
5- Lovely Lucky
8- Delta’s Kingdom
Order: 11 1 5 8
I didn’t really care for any of the runners here, but a fun idea came to me. Joel Rosario wiring an endurance event from an outside post would be entertaining to see, right? Traipsing nearly pulled it off two starts back in the G3 Long Island, a performance that also indicates he can handle this distance. Always Shopping and Lovely Lucky are also key contenders that will likely take to the distance well, but in a race where I’m not really interested in anything, I’ll try to make my own fun.
Race 9
Inside Information Stakes (G2) for Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
This is an excellent race featuring a diverse cast of talent. All the runners have different backgrounds, which makes it a little tricky to handicap, but it was an interesting race to mull over as a result. My top four:
4- Thissmytime
1- Dream Marie
2- Cinnabunny
3- Bronx Beauty
Order: 4 1 2 3
It may be wise to bet on class in this event, which would put Dream Marie at a significant advantage. However, I can’t seem to get away from Thissmytime, who’s put up some big speed figures at lower levels in her last two starts. Cinnabunny is very dangerous as well, and I may be underestimating her after a difficult trip last time out prevented her from winning her third straight.
Race 10
W.L. McKnight Stakes (G3) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ½ Miles on the Turf
This race shows up in the Daily Racing Form all the time as a key race for older turf horses at the beginning of the year. It also reminds me of my friend George, who will be contributing as a guest in an article coming out later today. None of this has anything to do with anything, especially my top four:
5- Sadler’s Joy
6- Sir Sahib
11- Channel Cat
1- Doswell
Order: 5 6 11 1
This is the sort of race that Sadler’s Joy has won in the past, as class relief has always allowed him to rack up victories without the pressure of his usual G1 rivals. I’m partial to him, as he’s one of my most popular win bets, but he does deserve my praise at this point. Meanwhile, I’ve never encountered Sir Sahib before and don’t usually care for Woodbine shippers, but this one seems poised to make a big run for new trainer Jose Corrales. Channel Cat could very well be done, but every time I feel ready to make that conclusion, he comes alive again with another strong showing.
Pegasus World Cup Races
For my analysis of the final two races of the Gulfstream card, the Pegasus World Cup Turf and Pegasus World Cup Dirt, make sure to check out my full analysis article coming out very soon. I’ll be going through every horse, and along with guest handicapper Emma Moquin, bettors will have two opinions as they prepare to bet the most exciting race Florida has to offer.
UPDATE: The article is now available here.